Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Tarsus Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (TARS)
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-11-04
$69.07-4.91%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
1.42 → 0.89 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 3 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 3 to 3; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for TARS yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Strengthen leadership with board expansion | The company expanded its board to strengthen leadership. | Intact | Board fails to add value or experiences turnover | Qualitative condition This condition has no defined numerical measure. Nov 4, 2026Last status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a commercial-stage biotech growth story, with its current business led by XDEMVY and its longer-term prospects tied partly to pipeline development. The thesis is on watch: product growth is progressing, but recent financial performance is weak and the latest quarter missed expectations.
The valuation evidence points to TARS as cheap versus peers, while the expectations gap is negative; model confidence is low. The overall priced-in tag is justified, and no fragility gates fired, but the evidence does not show that weak performance or earnings uncertainty is fully resolved.
Near term, XDEMVY sales growth and higher 2026 guidance support the commercial story, while an elevated risk of another earnings miss weighs on the outlook. Over the multi-year view, acquisitions add late-stage clinical assets, but pipeline progress remains mixed and the NORTHSTAR trial's topline data is expected in 2029.
The near-term test is whether TARS can deliver against its raised guidance without another miss or a reversal that damages management credibility. Over the multi-year view, the thesis also depends on continued XDEMVY adoption and pipeline execution; weaker employment data could pressure healthcare names, while strength among sector bellwethers could support sector momentum.
The 1-to-3-year view rests on a growing product base and pipeline expansion, balanced against weak recent results and meaningful execution risk. The available evidence supports a watch-state thesis, not a settled one. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| A primary condition in Tarsus Pharmaceuticals, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is Net loss narrows or turns positive by FY27. |
| Improving |
| Net loss persists or worsens beyond FY27 |
Diluted EPS: $-14.40 per share FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: Net loss narrows or turns positive by FY27. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Nov 3, 2026-14.4 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Achieve $670-700M XDEMVY sales in FY26 | Tarsus aims to grow XDEMVY sales to $670-700M in 2026. | Intact | Revenue falls below $670M in FY26 | Revenue: $194.569M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >= $670M revenue. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Nov 3, 2026194,569,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$1.66 → $0.89 · observed estimates
$0.90B → $0.93B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $1.66 | $900,300,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-25 | $1.66 | $900,300,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-26 | $2.87 | $906,466,249 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-07-27 | $1.66 | $900,300,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-28 | $1.66 | $900,300,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-29 | $2.87 | $906,466,249 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-07-30 | $2.87 | $906,472,392 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-07-31 | $2.87 | $906,472,392 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-08-01 | $2.87 | $906,472,392 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-08-02 | $2.48 | $900,300,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-08-03 | $2.48 | $900,300,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-08-04 | $2.48 | $900,300,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-08-05 | $2.87 | $906,472,392 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-08-06 | $2.48 | $900,300,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-08-08 | $2.34 | $908,355,940 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-09 | $2.34 | $908,355,940 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-10 | $2.88 | $915,884,458 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-08-12 | $2.19 | $920,328,360 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-13 | $2.19 | $920,328,360 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-14 | $2.88 | $915,884,458 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-08-15 | $2.88 | $915,884,458 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-08-16 | $2.88 | $915,884,458 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-17 | $2.88 | $915,884,458 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-18 | $2.88 | $915,884,458 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-19 | $2.88 | $915,884,458 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-20 | $1.47 | $920,800,963 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-21 | $1.47 | $920,800,963 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-22 | $1.47 | $920,800,963 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-23 | $1.47 | $920,800,963 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-24 | $1.47 | $920,800,963 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-25 | $1.47 | $920,800,963 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-26 | $1.47 | $920,800,963 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-27 | $1.47 | $920,800,963 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-28 | $1.47 | $920,800,963 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-29 | $1.47 | $920,800,963 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-30 | $1.47 | $920,800,963 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-31 | $1.47 | $920,800,963 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-01 | $1.47 | $920,800,963 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-02 | $1.47 | $920,800,963 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-03 | $1.47 | $920,800,963 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-04 | $1.47 | $920,800,963 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-05 | $1.47 | $920,800,963 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-06 | $1.66 | $910,686,540 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-07 | $1.66 | $910,686,540 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-08 | $1.66 | $910,686,540 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-09 | $1.65 | $910,686,540 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-10 | $1.65 | $910,686,540 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-11 | $1.65 | $910,686,540 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-12 | $1.65 | $910,686,540 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-13 | $1.65 | $910,686,540 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-14 | $1.65 | $910,686,540 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-15 | $1.65 | $910,686,540 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-16 | $1.65 | $910,686,540 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-17 | $1.50 | $910,686,540 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-18 | $1.50 | $910,686,540 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-19 | $1.50 | $910,686,540 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-20 | $1.50 | $910,686,540 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-21 | $1.50 | $910,686,540 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-22 | $1.50 | $910,686,540 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-23 | $1.50 | $910,686,540 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-24 | $1.50 | $910,686,540 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-25 | $1.44 | $916,635,222 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-26 | $1.42 | $916,635,222 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-27 | $1.42 | $916,635,222 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-28 | $1.42 | $916,635,222 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-29 | $1.42 | $916,635,222 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-30 | $1.42 | $916,635,222 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-01 | $1.42 | $916,635,222 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-02 | $1.42 | $916,635,222 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-03 | $1.42 | $916,635,222 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-04 | $1.42 | $916,635,222 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-05 | $1.42 | $916,635,222 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-06 | $1.42 | $916,635,222 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-07 | $1.42 | $916,635,222 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-08 | $1.42 | $916,635,222 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-09 | $1.42 | $916,635,222 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-10 | $1.42 | $916,635,222 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-11 | $1.42 | $916,635,222 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-12 | $1.42 | $916,635,222 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-13 | $1.42 | $916,635,222 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-14 | $1.44 | $917,687,660 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-15 | $1.44 | $917,687,660 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-16 | $1.02 | $922,687,660 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-17 | $1.02 | $922,687,660 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-18 | $1.02 | $922,687,660 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-19 | $1.02 | $922,687,660 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-20 | $1.02 | $922,687,660 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-21 | $1.02 | $922,687,660 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-22 | $1.02 | $922,687,660 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-23 | $1.02 | $922,687,660 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-24 | $1.02 | $922,687,660 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-25 | $1.02 | $922,687,660 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-26 | $1.02 | $922,687,660 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-27 | $1.02 | $922,687,660 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-28 | $1.02 | $922,687,660 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-29 | $1.02 | $922,689,722 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-30 | $1.02 | $922,689,722 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-31 | $1.02 | $922,689,722 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-11-01 | $1.02 | $922,689,722 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-11-02 | $1.02 | $922,689,722 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-11-03 | $1.02 | $922,689,722 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-11-04 | $0.89 | $930,742,862 | 3 / 3 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 10 Buy / Strong Buy · 0 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 1 recorded
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.