Tarsus Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (TARS)
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-09-04
$90.78+9.10%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · TARS
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance dropped from the top half to the bottom half of its industry over the past month — the reason to own it has weakened.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -29.4% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 37.1% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 66.5 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Worth watching into the next print: this name has erratic recent earnings surprises and operates in a high-miss-rate industry. A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 398 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
TARS — earnings miss
Dated 2026-08-06
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On August 6, 2026, Tarsus Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release, which, among other matters, sets forth the Company’s results of operations for the three and six months ended June 30, 2026. A copy of the press release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 and is incorporated herein by reference. The foregoing information, including Exhibit 99.1, is being furnished under
Why it matters: Finishing this acquisition adds to Tarsus' pipeline. It also boosts its position in the retina market.
Supportive ifAn official announcement will say the Alkeus deal is done.
Worry ifThere are delays or problems in the acquisition process.
Why it matters: Expanding the Board of Directors can help governance and strategy. Investors will watch for progress.
Supportive ifAnnouncement of at least one additional board member by the end of Q3 2026.
Worry ifNo new board members announced by the end of Q3 2026, suggesting slow progress.
Why it matters: Better operating income is important to fix past earnings misses. Investors will look for signs of improved profits.
Supportive ifOperating income improves to less than -$6M in Q2 2026.
Worry ifOperating income worsens or stays above -$6M in Q2 2026.
Why it matters: IRX-101's success could boost Tarsus's pipeline and presence in eye care.
Supportive ifPhase 3 trial for IRX-101 initiates on schedule in the first half of 2027.
Worry ifPhase 3 trial for IRX-101 is delayed beyond the first half of 2027.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$189 on $10,000 · ±1.9% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $422 loss on $10,000 · 4.2% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,200 loss on $10,000 · 32.0% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: How Tarsus uses raised capital will impact future growth and financial health.
Watch forManagement shares a clear plan for using the new capital well.
Also watch forNo clear plan is presented for the use of raised capital.
Why it matters: The merger could improve Tarsus's portfolio and growth plans. Investors want details on integration and benefits.
Supportive ifManagement will give an update on merger benefits and plans by Q3 2026.
Worry ifNo updates or delays in the merger process. This may show potential problems.
Why it matters: Data from this trial could support Tarsus's plan for Lyme disease prevention.
Watch forData from the TP-05 Calliope trial shows strong results in preventing Lyme disease.
Also watch forData from the TP-05 Calliope trial shows weak results.
Why it matters: Results from the TP-05 trial could support future growth in Lyme disease prevention. This expands Tarsus's market potential.
Supportive ifTopline data from the TP-05 trial is released in the first half of 2027.
Worry ifTopline data from the TP-05 trial shows disappointing results.
Why it matters: If healthcare revenue growth speeds up, it could boost Tarsus's prospects. Sector growth affects all companies.
Supportive ifHealthcare revenue growth returns to above 10% year over year.
Worry ifHealthcare revenue growth continues to decline or stays below 10%.
Why it matters: The departure could affect sales strategies and execution for XDEMVY. This is crucial for revenue growth.
Worry ifSales growth for XDEMVY remains strong despite the leadership change.
Less concerning ifSales growth for XDEMVY slows significantly after the CCO leaves.
Why it matters: Expanding the Board could improve governance and attract talent. This is a key priority for management.
Supportive ifAnnouncement of new Board members or a plan to expand the Board.
Worry ifThere is no news or updates about the Board expansion.
Why it matters: Slower sales growth may mean less demand or too much supply for XDEMVY.
Worry ifQ3 XDEMVY net product sales growth below 60% year-over-year.
Less concerning ifQ3 XDEMVY net product sales growth above 60% year-over-year.
Why it matters: Good data could support Tarsus' plans and make investors feel more confident.
Supportive ifTopline data from the Phase 2 KORE trial showing positive results for TP-04.
Worry ifTrial data shows bad or unclear results.