Tarsus Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (TARS)
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-11-05
$67.52-2.24%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-11-05
QuarterlyIQ Insights · TARS
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -41.1% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 30.9% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-05.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 72.0 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Worth watching into the next print: this name has erratic recent earnings surprises and operates in a high-miss-rate industry. A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-11-05 · Compared with 116 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
TARS — earnings miss
Dated 2026-08-06
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On August 6, 2026, Tarsus Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release, which, among other matters, sets forth the Company’s results of operations for the three and six months ended June 30, 2026. A copy of the press release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 and is incorporated herein by reference. The foregoing information, including Exhibit 99.1, is being furnished under
Why it matters: KORE tests TP-04 for ocular rosacea. Positive results would add support for another use of Tarsus's drug platform.
Supportive ifTopline KORE data, due in the first half of 2027, meets the trial's stated main goals.
Worry ifKORE misses a main goal, or topline data is delayed beyond the first half of 2027.
Why it matters: Q2 sales reached $173.9 million, and Tarsus raised its 2026 sales range. A higher Q3 result would support continued growth.
Supportive ifQ3 2026 XDEMVY net sales exceed $173.9 million, and Tarsus keeps its $685–705 million full-year sales range.
Worry ifQ3 XDEMVY net sales are at or below $173.9 million, or Tarsus cuts its 2026 sales range.
Why it matters: COMFORT is the planned Phase 3 test of IRX-101, added through the iRenix deal. Starting enrollment would move the program into late-stage testing.
Supportive ifTarsus starts COMFORT enrollment in the first half of 2027, as planned.
Worry ifCOMFORT has not started enrollment by the end of the first half of 2027, or Tarsus reports a delay.
Why it matters: Tarsus is adding a Phase 3 retina program while it still reports losses. The next reports can show the added costs and cash use.
Worry ifA later report shows higher research costs tied to ALK-001 and a lower cash balance than the $449.7 million reported at June 30, 2026.
Less concerning ifA later report shows no clear rise in research costs tied to ALK-001, while cash stays at or above $449.7 million.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$198 on $10,000 · ±2.0% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $431 loss on $10,000 · 4.3% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,200 loss on $10,000 · 32.0% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: The next earnings report is set for November 3, 2026. It can show whether sales growth and the raised full-year range remain on track.
Watch forOn November 3, Tarsus reports Q3 XDEMVY sales above $173.9 million and keeps its $685–705 million full-year range.
Also watch forOn November 3, Tarsus reports Q3 XDEMVY sales at or below $173.9 million or lowers its full-year range.
Why it matters: Calliope tests an oral drug meant to stop Lyme disease spread from tick bites. A strong result could support plans for a Phase 3 study.
Supportive ifTopline Calliope data, due in the first half of 2027, supports a Phase 3-ready package.
Worry ifCalliope data fails to support a Phase 3-ready package, or results slip past the first half of 2027.