Taylor Devices Inc (TAYD)
NASDAQIndustrialsIndustrial - MachinerySnapshot 2026-09-04
$62.18+2.71%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQIndustrialsIndustrial - MachinerySnapshot 2026-09-04
Broken: Primary pillar broken — Maintain profit margins near current levels: op margin 6.2% vs 20.7% prior.
Taylor Devices makes shock absorption and energy storage devices. Sales are expected to grow about 14% next year. The stock trades cheap with a price-to-earnings ratio of 18 versus peers at 31. Free cash flow yield is strong near 9.5%.
The company faces sector headwinds and fragile quality. Earnings estimates have recently fallen from $4.75 to $3.85 for next year. The small market cap and high risk label suggest volatility. Growth could disappoint and margins may compress.
The price is about 28% below our fair value near $80. Analysts expect 14% revenue growth next year. Our model sees justified valuation but implies slower growth longer term than consensus.
Breaks if: free cash flow yield falls below 8%
Breaks if: profit margins fall significantly below recent levels
Breaks if: YoY revenue growth falls below 14% in FY27
This is not a price target or investment advice.
A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.
This investment represents a smaller-cap industrial name with a weakened thesis state. While the company has shown some recent momentum, it has dropped in performance relative to its industry, indicating potential challenges ahead.
The market appears to have priced in a low level of fragility, as execution quality has been weak but not fully reflected in an expensive valuation. TAYD is currently seen as cheap compared to its peers, with a notable expectations gap.
Fundamentals may remain neutral in the near term, given the company's recent performance drop and high risk factors. There is a 33% probability of missing expectations, which adds to the uncertainty surrounding its near-term results.
The future performance of TAYD hinges on the actions of sector bellwethers like GEV, PH, and TT, as well as inflation trends. Positive earnings from these companies could provide a tailwind, while any signs of weakness or rising inflation could create headwinds.
Overall, TAYD's multi-year view is clouded by recent performance issues and sector challenges. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Yes, our read has weakened. The recent financial performance dropped from the top half to the bottom half of its industry. This change means the reason to own TAYD has weakened. Concerns about future growth were raised after a poor quarterly performance.
as of 2026-09-04
Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.