Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Texas Capital Bancshares (TCBI)
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-11-04
$103.34-0.75%
Close 2026-11-03 · 1-day change
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
8.26 → 8.23 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 10 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 10 to 10; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for TCBI yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Earnings per share at least $6.79 in FY 2026 | Analysts expect earnings per share above $7.5 in 2026, supporting durable profitability. | Intact | EPS guidance falls below $6.79 for FY 2026 | Diluted EPS: $2.28 per share FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >= $6.79 EPS in FY 2026. Target period ends 2026-12-31; this observation covers 2026-Q3. Oct 22, 20262.28 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
TCBI is a regional financial company with a recovery-and-execution thesis, rather than a clear-cut durable compounder. The 1-to-3-year thesis is intact, with recent financial performance rated strong and earnings quality robust, though management is rated neutral and risk moderate.
Valuation is rated neutral, and the pricing evidence is tagged justified with low fragility, meaning there are no flagged signs that expectations are unusually vulnerable. The valuation measure has eased recently, while the model’s confidence is low and its comparison with peers is not a clear signal of cheapness or expensiveness.
Near-term results have been strong, including a recent earnings beat, and non-interest income rose from the first to the third quarter; management also reported record fee income in Q3. Share repurchases and revenue diversification are on track, while capital maintenance is mixed, and the next-call guidance plus the company’s history of a deep miss remain risks.
The multi-year view depends in part on continued fee-income growth, sound capital levels, and management execution. Near term, a guidance cut would be a negative signal, and rate cuts from the current 3.88% could weigh on TCBI and the wider financial sector; continued strong earnings and guidance from sector bellwethers would support sector momentum.
For the next 1 to 3 years, TCBI’s thesis is supported by stronger recent performance and progress on revenue diversification, but it remains sensitive to rates and future guidance. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| Texas Capital Bancshares is growing profitably with net income rising from $47M to $74M in one year. |
| Intact |
| net income falls below $47M in any quarter after 2026-Q1 |
Net income: $103.705M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >= $73.79M net income in 2026-Q1. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q3. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Oct 22, 2026103,705,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Operating income growth to at least $94.42M in 2026-Q1 | Operating income improved by $34M in the same period. | Intact | operating income falls below $60.46M in any quarter after 2026-Q1 | Operating income: $135.702M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >= $94.42M operating income in 2026-Q1. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q3. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Oct 22, 2026135,702,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Maintain revenue near $419M per quarter | The bank maintains stable revenue near $420M per quarter. | Broken | revenue falls below $400M in any quarter | Revenue: $457.16M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >= $400M quarterly revenue. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Oct 22, 2026457,160,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$8.29 → $8.23 · observed estimates
$1.43B → $1.43B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $8.29 | $1,431,347,990 | 12 / 9 |
| 2026-07-25 | $8.29 | $1,431,347,990 | 12 / 9 |
| 2026-07-26 | $8.28 | $1,435,619,830 | 12 / 9 |
| 2026-07-27 | $8.28 | $1,435,619,830 | 12 / 9 |
| 2026-07-28 | $8.28 | $1,435,619,830 | 12 / 9 |
| 2026-07-29 | $8.32 | $1,433,584,821 | 10 / 7 |
| 2026-07-30 | $8.25 | $1,432,289,940 | 12 / 9 |
| 2026-07-31 | $8.32 | $1,433,584,821 | 10 / 7 |
| 2026-08-01 | $8.32 | $1,433,584,821 | 10 / 7 |
| 2026-08-02 | $8.25 | $1,432,289,940 | 12 / 9 |
| 2026-08-03 | $8.31 | $1,433,584,821 | 10 / 7 |
| 2026-08-04 | $8.25 | $1,432,289,940 | 12 / 9 |
| 2026-08-05 | $8.23 | $1,431,600,940 | 12 / 10 |
| 2026-08-06 | $8.23 | $1,431,600,940 | 12 / 10 |
| 2026-08-08 | $8.28 | $1,430,895,061 | 10 / 8 |
| 2026-08-09 | $8.23 | $1,431,600,940 | 12 / 10 |
| 2026-08-10 | $8.28 | $1,430,895,061 | 10 / 8 |
| 2026-08-12 | $8.28 | $1,430,895,061 | 10 / 8 |
| 2026-08-13 | $8.23 | $1,431,600,940 | 12 / 10 |
| 2026-08-14 | $8.28 | $1,430,895,061 | 10 / 8 |
| 2026-08-15 | $8.28 | $1,430,895,061 | 10 / 8 |
| 2026-08-16 | $8.28 | $1,430,895,061 | 10 / 8 |
| 2026-08-17 | $8.28 | $1,430,895,061 | 10 / 8 |
| 2026-08-18 | $8.28 | $1,430,895,061 | 10 / 8 |
| 2026-08-19 | $8.28 | $1,430,895,061 | 10 / 8 |
| 2026-08-20 | $8.28 | $1,430,895,061 | 10 / 8 |
| 2026-08-21 | $8.28 | $1,430,895,061 | 10 / 8 |
| 2026-08-22 | $8.28 | $1,430,895,061 | 10 / 8 |
| 2026-08-23 | $8.28 | $1,430,895,061 | 10 / 8 |
| 2026-08-24 | $8.28 | $1,430,895,061 | 10 / 8 |
| 2026-08-25 | $8.28 | $1,430,895,061 | 10 / 8 |
| 2026-08-26 | $8.28 | $1,430,895,061 | 10 / 8 |
| 2026-08-27 | $8.28 | $1,430,895,061 | 10 / 8 |
| 2026-08-28 | $8.28 | $1,430,895,061 | 10 / 8 |
| 2026-08-29 | $8.28 | $1,430,895,061 | 10 / 8 |
| 2026-08-30 | $8.28 | $1,430,895,061 | 10 / 8 |
| 2026-08-31 | $8.28 | $1,430,895,061 | 10 / 8 |
| 2026-09-01 | $8.28 | $1,430,895,061 | 10 / 8 |
| 2026-09-02 | $8.28 | $1,430,895,061 | 10 / 8 |
| 2026-09-03 | $8.28 | $1,430,895,061 | 10 / 8 |
| 2026-09-04 | $8.28 | $1,430,895,061 | 10 / 8 |
| 2026-09-05 | $8.28 | $1,430,895,061 | 10 / 8 |
| 2026-09-06 | $8.28 | $1,430,895,061 | 10 / 8 |
| 2026-09-07 | $8.28 | $1,430,895,061 | 10 / 8 |
| 2026-09-08 | $8.28 | $1,430,895,061 | 10 / 8 |
| 2026-09-09 | $8.28 | $1,431,678,981 | 10 / 8 |
| 2026-09-10 | $8.28 | $1,431,678,981 | 10 / 8 |
| 2026-09-11 | $8.28 | $1,431,674,821 | 10 / 8 |
| 2026-09-12 | $8.28 | $1,431,674,821 | 10 / 8 |
| 2026-09-13 | $8.28 | $1,431,674,821 | 10 / 8 |
| 2026-09-14 | $8.28 | $1,431,674,821 | 10 / 8 |
| 2026-09-15 | $8.28 | $1,431,674,821 | 10 / 8 |
| 2026-09-16 | $8.28 | $1,431,674,821 | 10 / 8 |
| 2026-09-17 | $8.28 | $1,431,674,821 | 10 / 8 |
| 2026-09-18 | $8.28 | $1,431,674,821 | 10 / 8 |
| 2026-09-19 | $8.28 | $1,431,674,821 | 10 / 8 |
| 2026-09-20 | $8.28 | $1,431,674,821 | 10 / 8 |
| 2026-09-21 | $8.28 | $1,431,674,821 | 10 / 8 |
| 2026-09-22 | $8.28 | $1,431,674,821 | 10 / 8 |
| 2026-09-23 | $8.28 | $1,431,674,821 | 10 / 8 |
| 2026-09-24 | $8.23 | $1,427,534,842 | 10 / 8 |
| 2026-09-25 | $8.23 | $1,428,134,842 | 10 / 8 |
| 2026-09-26 | $8.23 | $1,428,134,842 | 10 / 8 |
| 2026-09-27 | $8.23 | $1,428,134,842 | 10 / 8 |
| 2026-09-28 | $8.23 | $1,428,134,842 | 10 / 8 |
| 2026-09-29 | $8.23 | $1,428,134,842 | 10 / 8 |
| 2026-09-30 | $8.23 | $1,428,134,842 | 10 / 8 |
| 2026-10-01 | $8.23 | $1,428,134,842 | 10 / 8 |
| 2026-10-02 | $8.23 | $1,428,134,842 | 10 / 8 |
| 2026-10-03 | $8.26 | $1,429,008,439 | 10 / 8 |
| 2026-10-04 | $8.26 | $1,429,008,439 | 10 / 8 |
| 2026-10-05 | $8.26 | $1,429,008,439 | 10 / 8 |
| 2026-10-06 | $8.26 | $1,429,008,439 | 10 / 8 |
| 2026-10-07 | $8.24 | $1,428,974,839 | 10 / 8 |
| 2026-10-08 | $8.23 | $1,428,339,679 | 10 / 8 |
| 2026-10-09 | $8.23 | $1,428,332,004 | 10 / 8 |
| 2026-10-10 | $8.23 | $1,428,332,004 | 10 / 8 |
| 2026-10-11 | $8.23 | $1,428,332,004 | 10 / 8 |
| 2026-10-12 | $8.23 | $1,428,332,004 | 10 / 8 |
| 2026-10-13 | $8.23 | $1,428,332,004 | 10 / 8 |
| 2026-10-14 | $8.23 | $1,428,332,004 | 10 / 8 |
| 2026-10-15 | $8.23 | $1,428,332,004 | 10 / 8 |
| 2026-10-16 | $8.23 | $1,428,332,004 | 10 / 8 |
| 2026-10-17 | $8.23 | $1,428,332,004 | 10 / 8 |
| 2026-10-18 | $8.23 | $1,428,332,004 | 10 / 8 |
| 2026-10-19 | $8.23 | $1,428,332,004 | 10 / 8 |
| 2026-10-20 | $8.23 | $1,428,332,004 | 10 / 8 |
| 2026-10-21 | $8.23 | $1,428,332,004 | 10 / 8 |
| 2026-10-22 | $8.23 | $1,428,332,004 | 10 / 8 |
| 2026-10-23 | $8.23 | $1,428,332,004 | 10 / 8 |
| 2026-10-24 | $8.23 | $1,428,332,004 | 10 / 8 |
| 2026-10-25 | $8.23 | $1,428,332,004 | 10 / 8 |
| 2026-10-26 | $8.23 | $1,428,332,004 | 10 / 8 |
| 2026-10-27 | $8.23 | $1,428,332,004 | 10 / 8 |
| 2026-10-28 | $8.23 | $1,428,332,004 | 10 / 8 |
| 2026-10-29 | $8.23 | $1,428,332,004 | 10 / 8 |
| 2026-10-30 | $8.23 | $1,428,332,004 | 10 / 8 |
| 2026-10-31 | $8.23 | $1,428,332,004 | 10 / 8 |
| 2026-11-01 | $8.23 | $1,428,332,004 | 10 / 8 |
| 2026-11-02 | $8.23 | $1,428,332,004 | 10 / 8 |
| 2026-11-03 | $8.23 | $1,428,332,004 | 10 / 8 |
| 2026-11-04 | $8.23 | $1,428,332,004 | 10 / 8 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 4 Buy / Strong Buy · 8 Hold · 1 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 5 recorded
0 raises · 1 cuts · 0 unchanged · 2 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.