Texas Capital Bancshares (TCBI)
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-09-04
$98.64+0.85%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · TCBI
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance recently climbed back into the top half of its industry — confirming the recovery.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -9.8% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | -14.6% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 4.8 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 219 industry peers
TCBI — COO transition
Dated 2026-04-23
Chief Operating Officer — John Cummings: John Cummings was promoted to Chief Operating Officer.
Why it matters: A decline in net income would raise concerns about the company's growth and stability.
Worry ifQ2 net income for common stockholders is less than $69.5 million.
Less concerning ifQ2 net income exceeds $69.5 million.
Why it matters: New M&A activity could boost growth and market position. This matches management's plan.
Supportive ifAnnouncement of a new merger or acquisition deal in Q3 2026.
Worry ifNo M&A announcements made in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: Steady revenue is important for Texas Capital's growth.
Worry ifQ2 revenue is above $419.09M. This shows stability.
Less concerning ifQ2 revenue is below $419.09M. This shows instability.
Why it matters: The earnings report will show if TCBI continues its growth trend. Investors will look for strong earnings and revenue growth.
Supportive ifEarnings per share exceeds $1.83, showing continued growth from Q2.
Worry ifEarnings per share falls below $1.56, indicating a slowdown in growth.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$77 on $10,000 · ±0.8% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $231 loss on $10,000 · 2.3% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,421 loss on $10,000 · 14.2% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Exceeding this threshold shows Texas Capital's strong earnings growth trend is continuing.
Supportive ifQ2 2026 net income reported above $70 million.
Worry ifQ2 2026 net income reported below $70 million.
Why it matters: If revenue growth falls below its median, it could signal a slowdown in the financial sector.
Worry ifTexas Capital's revenue growth drops below 10% year over year.
Less concerning ifRevenue growth stays above 10% year over year.
Why it matters: A drop in net interest margin could mean less profit and lower earnings.
Worry ifNet interest margin reported below 3.28% for Q3 2026.
Less concerning ifNet interest margin reported at or above 3.28% for Q3 2026.
Why it matters: If CET1 drops below 12%, it may show weaker capital strength and risks.
Worry ifCET1 ratio reported below 12% in the next earnings release.
Less concerning ifCET1 ratio remains at or above 12% in the next earnings release.
Why it matters: A higher provision means worse credit quality. This can hurt future profits.
Worry ifProvision for credit losses was over $18 million for Q3 2026.
Less concerning ifProvision for credit losses reported at or below $18 million for Q3 2026.
Why it matters: Raising more capital could help TCBI's finances. Investors will look for new debt offers.
Supportive ifAnnouncement of new debt issuance exceeding $400 million to support growth.
Worry ifNo new efforts to raise capital were announced. This may mean stagnation.
Why it matters: A lower efficiency ratio shows better cost control. It also shows good performance.
Supportive ifEfficiency ratio is now below 65% in Q2.
Worry ifEfficiency ratio stays above 66% in Q2.
Why it matters: Going above this level shows strong earnings growth and good operations.
Supportive ifIn Q3, net income for common stockholders is over $80 million.
Worry ifQ3 net income falls below $75 million.
Why it matters: Strong growth in non-interest income shows good diversity. This means more revenue.
Supportive ifNon-interest income grew more than 29% from last year in Q3 2026.
Worry ifNon-interest income grew at or below 29% from last year in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: More criticized loans may mean credit problems. This could hurt earnings.
Worry ifCriticized loans will be over $700 million in the next quarterly report.
Less concerning ifCriticized loans will stay below $700 million in the next quarterly report.
Why it matters: New acquisitions could boost growth and revenue. This matches management's focus on M&A.
Supportive ifA big acquisition or merger will be announced in the next quarter.
Worry ifNo M&A activity announced in the next quarter.
Why it matters: Higher net charge-offs may show worse credit quality. This can impact profits.
Worry ifNet charge-offs exceed $20 million in the next quarterly report.
Less concerning ifNet charge-offs remain below $20 million in the next quarterly report.