Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Third Coast Bancshares, Inc. (TCBX)
NYSEFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-11-04
$40.49+1.50%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NYSEFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
4.33 → 4.26 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 5 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 6 to 5; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for TCBX yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Repurchase up to $30 million in shares | The company is buying back up to $30 million in shares. | Intact | Buyback program canceled or not executed | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
TCBX is a small-cap financial company with a growth-through-mergers angle, rather than a proven steady compounder. Its long-term thesis is intact, while management execution and earnings quality remain mixed.
The valuation evidence describes TCBX as cheap versus peers, and the expectations gap is close to neutral. Valuation rose recently, but the evidence labels the current pricing as justified, with low fragility from what is already priced in.
Near term, loan and deposit growth support the business, and a recent earnings beat is a positive signal. But third-quarter income fell from the prior quarter as merger costs rose, while the efficiency ratio worsened; earnings quality remains fragile despite strong recent performance. A guidance cut is a key near-term risk, and the miss-risk assessment is quiet but notes the smaller company size and recent peer misses.
Over the next one to three years, the thesis depends on whether relationship-driven growth continues and merger benefits outweigh integration costs. A guidance cut or lower interest rates would add pressure, while continued strong results and higher guidance from financial-sector peers would support the sector backdrop for TCBX.
The multi-year view remains intact, but it rests on converting balance-sheet growth and acquisitions into steadier earnings and better cost control. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| A primary condition in Third Coast Bancshares, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >-38.7 million USD. |
| Under Pressure |
| Cash from operations stays below negative $38.7M |
Cash from operations: $44.964M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >-38.7 million USD. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Aug 4, 202644,964,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Maintain EPS near $3.79 in 2025 | A primary condition in Third Coast Bancshares, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >=3.79 USD per share. | Intact | EPS falls below $3.79 in 2025 | Diluted EPS: $0.93 per share FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >=3.79 USD per share. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Nov 3, 20260.93 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Complete and integrate Keystone Bancshares merger | Third Coast Bancshares completed a merger to grow its market. | Intact | Merger not completed or integration fails by mid-2026 | Qualitative: Integration on track, Great Plains deal closing by April 2027 News confirms Great Plains deal progress and Q3 earnings beat. No evidence of Keystone integration failure or stalled recovery. Nov 4, 2026Last status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$4.25 → $4.26 · observed estimates
$0.27B → $0.39B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $4.25 | $272,325,500 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-07-25 | $4.27 | $274,975,500 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-07-26 | $4.27 | $274,975,500 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-07-27 | $4.37 | $278,049,667 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-07-28 | $4.31 | $280,774,500 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-07-29 | $4.37 | $278,049,667 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-07-30 | $4.31 | $280,774,500 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-07-31 | $4.37 | $278,049,667 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-01 | $4.37 | $278,049,667 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-02 | $4.26 | $281,416,330 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-03 | $4.37 | $278,049,667 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-04 | $4.26 | $281,416,330 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-05 | $4.37 | $278,049,667 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-06 | $4.37 | $278,049,667 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-08 | $4.33 | $281,416,333 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-09 | $4.26 | $281,416,330 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-10 | $4.33 | $281,416,333 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-12 | $4.33 | $281,416,333 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-13 | $4.33 | $281,416,333 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-14 | $4.33 | $281,416,333 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-15 | $4.33 | $281,416,333 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-16 | $4.33 | $281,416,333 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-17 | $4.33 | $281,416,333 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-18 | $4.33 | $281,416,333 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-19 | $4.33 | $281,416,333 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-20 | $4.33 | $281,416,333 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-21 | $4.33 | $281,416,333 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-22 | $4.33 | $281,416,333 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-23 | $4.33 | $281,416,333 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-24 | $4.33 | $281,416,333 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-25 | $4.33 | $281,416,333 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-26 | $4.33 | $281,416,333 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-27 | $4.33 | $281,416,333 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-28 | $4.36 | $282,587,250 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-29 | $4.36 | $282,587,250 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-30 | $4.36 | $282,587,250 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-31 | $4.36 | $282,587,250 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-01 | $4.36 | $282,587,250 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-02 | $4.36 | $282,587,250 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-03 | $4.36 | $282,587,250 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-04 | $4.36 | $282,587,250 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-05 | $4.36 | $282,587,250 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-06 | $4.36 | $282,587,250 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-07 | $4.36 | $282,587,250 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-08 | $4.36 | $282,587,250 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-09 | $4.36 | $282,587,250 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-10 | $4.36 | $282,587,250 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-11 | $4.36 | $282,587,250 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-12 | $4.36 | $282,587,250 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-13 | $4.36 | $282,587,250 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-14 | $4.36 | $282,587,250 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-15 | $4.36 | $282,587,250 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-16 | $4.36 | $282,587,250 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-17 | $4.36 | $282,587,250 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-18 | $4.36 | $282,587,250 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-19 | $4.36 | $282,587,250 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-20 | $4.36 | $282,587,250 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-21 | $4.36 | $282,587,250 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-22 | $4.36 | $282,587,250 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-23 | $4.34 | $282,587,250 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-24 | $4.34 | $281,728,500 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-25 | $4.34 | $281,728,500 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-26 | $4.33 | $282,222,800 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-27 | $4.33 | $282,222,800 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-28 | $4.33 | $282,222,800 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-29 | $4.33 | $282,222,800 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-30 | $4.33 | $282,222,800 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-01 | $4.33 | $282,222,800 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-02 | $4.33 | $282,222,800 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-03 | $4.33 | $282,222,800 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-10-04 | $4.33 | $282,222,800 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-10-05 | $4.33 | $282,222,800 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-10-06 | $4.33 | $282,222,800 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-10-07 | $4.33 | $282,222,800 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-10-08 | $4.33 | $282,222,800 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-10-09 | $4.34 | $307,962,800 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-10 | $4.39 | $329,442,800 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-11 | $4.39 | $329,442,800 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-12 | $4.39 | $329,442,800 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-13 | $4.39 | $329,442,800 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-14 | $4.43 | $353,784,600 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-15 | $4.43 | $353,784,600 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-16 | $4.43 | $353,784,600 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-17 | $4.43 | $353,784,600 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-18 | $4.43 | $353,784,600 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-19 | $4.43 | $353,784,600 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-20 | $4.43 | $353,784,600 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-21 | $4.43 | $353,784,600 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-22 | $4.43 | $353,784,600 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-23 | $4.43 | $353,784,600 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-24 | $4.35 | $373,045,800 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-25 | $4.35 | $373,045,800 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-26 | $4.35 | $373,045,800 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-27 | $4.35 | $373,045,800 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-28 | $4.31 | $369,965,800 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-10-29 | $4.26 | $354,476,797 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-10-30 | $4.26 | $369,965,800 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-31 | $4.26 | $369,965,800 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-11-01 | $4.26 | $369,965,800 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-11-02 | $4.26 | $369,965,800 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-11-03 | $4.26 | $369,965,800 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-11-04 | $4.26 | $391,425,800 | 5 / 3 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 4 Buy / Strong Buy · 3 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 3 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.