Third Coast Bancshares, Inc. (TCBX)
NYSEFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-11-04
$40.49+1.50%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NYSEFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · TCBX
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -13.0% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | -2.3% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 10.7 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 230 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
TCBX — dividend update
Dated 2026-09-17
Other Events. On September 17, 2026, Third Coast Bancshares, Inc. issued a press release announcing that its Board of Directors declared a quarterly cash dividend of $17.25 per share on it 6.75% Series A Convertible Non-Cumulative Preferred Stock. The dividend is payable on October 15, 2026 to holders of record at the close of business on September 30, 2026. A copy of the press release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 and is incorporated herein by reference, including the cautionary languag…
Why it matters: Net interest margin fell from 3.83% in Q2 to 3.70% in Q3. Another drop would show that pressure is still growing.
Worry ifThe next reported net interest margin is below 3.70%.
Less concerning ifThe next reported net interest margin is 3.70% or higher.
Why it matters: The all-stock deal adds a major step to the company’s growth plan. The company also logged $3.2 million in deal costs this quarter.
Watch forThe merger closes by March 31, 2027, as planned, and later reports show the deal is complete.
Also watch forThe company reports a delay past Q1 2027, a termination, or a major change to the deal terms.
Why it matters: Nonperforming loans were $29.0 million in Q3, up from $21.7 million a year earlier. A further rise would point to more loan stress.
Worry ifThe next report shows nonperforming loans above $30.0 million or above 0.53% of total loans.
Less concerning ifThe next report shows nonperforming loans at or below $29.0 million and the ratio at or below 0.53%.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$104 on $10,000 · ±1.0% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $265 loss on $10,000 · 2.7% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,606 loss on $10,000 · 16.1% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.