Third Coast Bancshares, Inc. (TCBX)
NYSEFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-09-04
$46.05+2.65%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · TCBX
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 15.5% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| -21.3% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 36.8 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 219 industry peers
TCBX — divestiture
Dated 2026-07-13
Other Events. On July 13, 2026, Third Coast Bancshares, Inc. (the “Company”), a Texas corporation and the parent company of Third Coast Bank (the “Bank”), a Texas banking association, announced that it closed the sale of substantially all of the assets of Third Coast Commercial Capital, Inc. (“TCCC”), a wholly owned subsidiary of the Bank, to Gulf Coast Bank & Trust Company, effective as of June 25, 2026. A copy of the press release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 and is incorporated herei…
Why it matters: Improving cash flow is vital for financial health. It affects operations and growth plans.
Supportive ifCash from operations turns positive and exceeds $5.7M in Q2 or Q3 2026.
Worry ifCash from operations is still negative. It may go down more.
Why it matters: Slower loan growth may mean trouble in getting new customers after the merger.
Worry ifGross loans grow less than 3.5% in Q3.
Less concerning ifGross loans grow more than 3.5% in Q3.
Why it matters: A drop in revenue growth could signal a slowdown in the financial sector. This would affect investor confidence in Third Coast Bancshares.
Worry ifRevenue growth falls below the median of 15% year over year.
Less concerning ifRevenue growth stays at or above the median of 15% year over year.
Why it matters: A higher efficiency ratio shows that costs are going up. It is hard to manage expenses.
Worry ifEfficiency ratio for Q3 exceeds 66.06%.
Less concerning ifEfficiency ratio for Q3 gets better below 56.51%.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$105 on $10,000 · ±1.1% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $273 loss on $10,000 · 2.7% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,606 loss on $10,000 · 16.1% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: The dividend amount and timing show how management uses capital. This affects investor trust.
Watch forThe Board declares a dividend higher than $17.0625 per share.
Also watch forThe Board declares a dividend lower than $17.0625 per share.
Why it matters: A cut would show financial trouble and hurt investor sentiment.
Worry ifThe company keeps or raises the quarterly dividend of $17.0625 per share.
Less concerning ifThe company says it will reduce the dividend payment.
Why it matters: Good integration may boost growth and efficiency in the next few quarters.
Supportive ifManagement says they will finish the Keystone merger by year-end.
Worry ifThere are delays or problems in the integration process. This may hurt growth.
Why it matters: Sustaining EPS performance is crucial for growth and investor trust.
Supportive ifQ2 diluted EPS is above $3.79. This shows strong earnings continue.
Worry ifQ2 diluted EPS is below $3.50. This shows earnings are weakening.
Why it matters: More nonperforming loans may mean credit quality is getting worse after the merger.
Worry ifQ3 nonperforming loans exceed 0.68% of total loans.
Less concerning ifQ3 nonperforming loans remain below 0.68% of total loans.
Why it matters: More nonperforming loans could show credit problems after the merger.
Worry ifQ3 nonperforming loans are over $30 million. This suggests credit quality is getting worse.
Less concerning ifNonperforming loans are below $30 million. This shows credit quality is stable.
Why it matters: A drop in net interest margin shows possible problems with loan profits and funding costs.
Worry ifQ3 net interest margin falls below 3.67%.
Less concerning ifQ3 net interest margin stays at or above 3.83%.
Why it matters: A fall in net income may show trouble keeping profits after the merger.
Worry ifQ3 net income reported below $22 million.
Less concerning ifQ3 net income exceeds $22 million.