Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Tactile Systems Technology, Inc. (TCMD)
NASDAQHealth CareMedical - DevicesSnapshot 2026-11-04
$27.18+9.69%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareMedical - DevicesSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
1.53 → 1.56 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 2 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 2 to 2; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for TCMD yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Achieve $49M to $51M adjusted EBITDA in 2026 | Adjusted EBITDA target is $49M to $51M. | Intact | Adjusted EBITDA falls below $38M in FY26 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 2 of 3 supplied quarters. Management reported: “The Company continues to expect full year 2026 adjusted EBITDA in the range of $49 million to $51 million, compared to adjusted EBITDA of $44.8 million in 2025.” “The Company continues to expect full year 2026 adjusted EBITDA in the range of $49 million to $51 million, compared to adjusted EBITDA of $44.8 million in 2025.” |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a growth business with improving profitability, supported by robust earnings quality and a healthcare sector tailwind. The multi-year view is intact, though the evidence is only medium confidence and near-term risk is elevated.
Valuation evidence is mixed: TCMD is described as cheap versus peers, while the peer premium measure is also elevated. The expectations gap is negative, but the model labels what is priced in as justified and reports low fragility, so the evidence does not point to an obvious mismatch between expectations and fundamentals.
Near term, management is on track for its 2026 revenue and adjusted EBITDA goals, and second-quarter revenue and adjusted EBITDA grew year over year. The MyoSleeve distribution agreement adds a product opportunity, but its financial impact is not yet clear. The next guidance update and uneven earnings surprises remain risks.
The multi-year thesis depends on continued delivery against management’s growth and profitability goals, and on whether MyoSleeve gains commercial traction. Near term, a guidance cut or further weakening in jobs could weigh on the business backdrop, while continued strength from healthcare bellwethers could support sector momentum.
For the next one to three years, TCMD has a supported growth-and-profitability case, but the elevated risk and mixed valuation signals make execution and the next guidance update important. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Improve cash from operations from negative in Q1 2026 | A supporting condition in Tactile Systems Technology, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is Positive cash flow from operations. | Improving | Cash from operations remains negative for multiple quarters in FY26 | Cash from operations: $3.254M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: Positive cash flow from operations. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 10, 20263,254,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Achieve $360M to $368M revenue in 2026 | A primary condition in Tactile Systems Technology, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is ~$364M total revenue. | Intact | Annual revenue falls below $317M in FY26 | Revenue: $91.858M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: ~$364M total revenue. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Nov 2, 202691,858,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$1.56 → $1.56 · observed estimates
$0.40B → $0.40B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $1.56 | $397,555,200 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-07-25 | $1.56 | $397,555,200 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-07-26 | $1.56 | $397,555,200 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-07-27 | $1.56 | $397,555,200 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-07-28 | $1.50 | $397,555,200 | 2 / 5 |
| 2026-07-29 | $1.56 | $397,555,200 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-07-30 | $1.50 | $397,555,200 | 2 / 5 |
| 2026-07-31 | $1.56 | $397,555,200 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-01 | $1.56 | $397,555,200 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-02 | $1.50 | $397,555,200 | 2 / 5 |
| 2026-08-03 | $1.56 | $397,555,200 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-04 | $1.56 | $397,555,200 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-05 | $1.56 | $397,555,200 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-06 | $1.56 | $397,555,200 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-08 | $1.56 | $397,555,200 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-09 | $1.50 | $397,555,200 | 2 / 5 |
| 2026-08-10 | $1.56 | $397,555,200 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-12 | $1.56 | $397,555,200 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-13 | $1.46 | $395,952,800 | 2 / 5 |
| 2026-08-14 | $1.56 | $397,555,200 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-15 | $1.56 | $397,555,200 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-16 | $1.56 | $397,555,200 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-17 | $1.56 | $397,555,200 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-18 | $1.56 | $397,555,200 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-19 | $1.56 | $397,555,200 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-20 | $1.48 | $396,812,800 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-21 | $1.48 | $396,813,340 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-22 | $1.48 | $396,813,340 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-23 | $1.48 | $396,813,340 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-24 | $1.48 | $396,813,340 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-25 | $1.48 | $396,813,340 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-26 | $1.48 | $396,813,340 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-27 | $1.48 | $396,813,340 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-28 | $1.48 | $396,813,340 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-29 | $1.48 | $396,813,340 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-30 | $1.53 | $396,591,675 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-31 | $1.53 | $396,591,675 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | $1.53 | $396,591,675 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-02 | $1.53 | $396,591,675 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-03 | $1.53 | $396,591,675 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-04 | $1.53 | $396,591,675 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-05 | $1.53 | $396,591,675 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-06 | $1.53 | $396,591,675 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-07 | $1.53 | $396,591,675 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-08 | $1.53 | $396,591,675 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-09 | $1.53 | $396,591,675 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-10 | $1.53 | $396,591,675 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-11 | $1.53 | $396,591,675 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-12 | $1.53 | $396,591,675 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-13 | $1.53 | $396,591,675 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-14 | $1.53 | $396,591,675 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-15 | $1.53 | $396,591,675 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-16 | $1.53 | $396,591,675 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-17 | $1.53 | $396,591,675 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-18 | $1.53 | $396,591,675 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-19 | $1.53 | $396,591,675 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-20 | $1.53 | $396,591,675 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-21 | $1.53 | $396,591,675 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-22 | $1.53 | $396,591,675 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-23 | $1.53 | $396,591,675 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-24 | $1.53 | $396,591,675 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-25 | $1.53 | $396,591,675 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-26 | $1.53 | $396,591,675 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-27 | $1.53 | $396,591,675 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-28 | $1.53 | $396,591,675 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-29 | $1.53 | $396,591,675 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-30 | $1.53 | $396,591,675 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-01 | $1.53 | $396,591,675 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-02 | $1.53 | $396,591,675 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-03 | $1.53 | $396,591,675 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-04 | $1.53 | $396,591,675 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-05 | $1.53 | $396,591,675 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-06 | $1.53 | $396,591,675 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-07 | $1.53 | $396,591,675 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-08 | $1.53 | $396,591,675 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-09 | $1.53 | $396,591,675 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-10 | $1.53 | $396,591,675 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-11 | $1.53 | $396,591,675 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-12 | $1.53 | $396,591,675 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-13 | $1.53 | $396,596,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-14 | $1.53 | $396,596,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-15 | $1.53 | $396,596,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-16 | $1.53 | $396,596,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-17 | $1.53 | $396,596,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-18 | $1.53 | $396,596,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-19 | $1.53 | $396,596,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-20 | $1.53 | $396,596,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-21 | $1.53 | $396,596,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-22 | $1.53 | $396,596,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-23 | $1.53 | $396,596,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-24 | $1.53 | $396,596,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-25 | $1.53 | $396,596,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-26 | $1.53 | $396,596,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-27 | $1.53 | $396,596,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-28 | $1.53 | $396,596,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-29 | $1.53 | $396,596,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-30 | $1.53 | $396,596,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-31 | $1.53 | $396,596,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-11-01 | $1.53 | $396,596,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-11-02 | $1.53 | $396,596,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-11-03 | $1.54 | $396,696,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-11-04 | $1.56 | $396,152,500 | 2 / 3 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 4 Buy / Strong Buy · 0 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 2 recorded
0 raises · 1 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.