Tactile Systems Technology, Inc. (TCMD)
NASDAQHealth CareMedical - DevicesSnapshot 2026-09-04
$21.87-0.64%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareMedical - DevicesSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · TCMD
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -17.5% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 9.8% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 27.4 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 87 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
TCMD — officer change
Dated 2026-03-09
Director — Andrea A. Pearson: Andrea A. Pearson was elected to the board of directors and appointed to serve on two committees.
Why it matters: Reaching this target shows strong profits and good operations. It backs up what management says.
Supportive ifAdjusted EBITDA of $12 million or more in Q3.
Worry ifAdjusted EBITDA falls below $10 million in Q3.
Why it matters: Strong MyoSleeve sales can support Tactile's product growth.
Supportive ifSales data showing MyoSleeve contributes at least $1 million in revenue by Q4 2026.
Worry ifMyoSleeve sales fail to reach $1 million by Q4 2026.
Why it matters: Sales data will show how well the new MyoSleeve product is being received in the market.
Watch forMyoSleeve sales are better than what the management thought.
Also watch forSales of MyoSleeve fall short of initial expectations.
Why it matters: Success in this area could enhance product offerings and drive future revenue growth.
Supportive ifThere may be big sales or partnerships for MyoSleeve with the VA and DoD.
Worry ifNo updates or lack of traction in MyoSleeve sales in the next quarter.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$172 on $10,000 · ±1.7% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $334 loss on $10,000 · 3.3% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,383 loss on $10,000 · 33.8% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Stable or lower expenses while investing shows good cost control.
Supportive ifOperating expenses in Q3 are stable or lower than Q2 2026.
Worry ifOperating expenses in Q3 rise a lot compared to Q2 2026.
Why it matters: Better cash flow is important for growth and flexibility.
Supportive ifCash from operations turns positive in Q2.
Worry ifCash from operations remains negative in Q2.
Why it matters: Keeping costs down while spending for growth is key. It shows how well the company runs.
Supportive ifOperating expenses do not exceed $60 million in Q3.
Worry ifCosts went over $60 million in Q3.
Why it matters: Hitting this range shows the company is meeting its profit goals.
Supportive ifAdjusted EBITDA reported in Q3 falls within $49M to $51M.
Worry ifAdjusted EBITDA reported in Q3 is below $49M.
Why it matters: If revenue growth picks up, it could signal a positive shift for Tactile Systems.
Supportive ifHealth care revenue growth is speeding up again. It is moving back toward 10% or higher.
Worry ifRevenue growth is slowing down. It is now below 10%.
Why it matters: Keeping a gross margin over 76% shows good cost control and strong pricing power.
Supportive ifGross margin in Q3 stays above 76%.
Worry ifGross margin in Q3 drops below 76%.
Why it matters: Meeting or exceeding this growth rate shows the company is on track with its annual revenue goals.
Supportive ifQ3 total revenue growth of 9% or more year-over-year.
Worry ifQ3 total revenue growth is below 9% from last year.