TScan Therapeutics Inc (TCRX)
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-09-04
$0.39+5.55%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · TCRX
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance dropped from the top half to the bottom half of its industry over the past month — the reason to own it has weakened.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -63.0% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | -26.7% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 36.2 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Worth watching into the next print: this name is a smaller-cap name (higher miss base rate) and operates in a high-miss-rate industry. A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 398 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
TCRX — CEO transition
Dated 2026-09-02
CFO — Jason A. Amello: The CFO and CMO were terminated without cause as part of a strategic reorganization, with the CEO temporarily assuming financial officer duties, indicating a significant loss of senior management.
Why it matters: Updates on cash runway will show if TScan can pay for operations and trials.
Worry ifCash runway lasts past Q2 2027 even with loan payments.
Less concerning ifCash runway falls short of expectations due to increased burn rate from loan payments.
Why it matters: Launching the Phase 3 trial is a key step in TScan's development plan. It signals progress and commitment to TSC-101.
Supportive ifThe Phase 3 trial for TSC-101 officially starts as planned in Q2 2026.
Worry ifThe launch of the Phase 3 trial is delayed beyond Q2 2026.
Why it matters: Achieving cost savings is crucial for TScan's financial health. It impacts future funding and operations.
Worry ifTScan reports achieving at least $22.5 million in cost savings by the end of 2026.
Less concerning ifCost savings fall short of $22.5 million by the end of 2026.
Why it matters: New data will help us understand how well TSC-101 works and its market impact.
Watch forNew data shows better results for patients using TSC-101.
Also watch forNew data shows no better results or worse outcomes for patients using TSC-101.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$290 on $10,000 · ±2.9% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $877 loss on $10,000 · 8.8% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $8,528 loss on $10,000 · 85.3% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Achieving cost savings is crucial for TScan's financial health. It impacts how long they can operate without new funding.
Watch forManagement reports achieving $45 million in annual cost savings by the end of 2027.
Also watch forCost savings fall short of $30 million by the end of 2027.
Why it matters: This trial is important for proving TSC-101 can help treat blood cancers.
Supportive ifFirst patient dosed in the Phase 3 ALLOHA-2 trial as announced in Q2 2026.
Worry ifNo patients are dosed in the Phase 3 ALLOHA-2 trial by the end of Q3 2026.
Why it matters: Topline data will show if TSC-101 is effective in preventing relapse after transplant. This is crucial for TScan's future.
Supportive ifThe ALLOHA-2 trial shows that it works well to stop relapse.
Worry ifThe data shows no major issues with TSC-101's effectiveness or safety.
Why it matters: Good data could show TSC-101's potential in blood cancers. This is important because the company is stopping new enrollment in the Phase 3 study due to money issues.
Supportive ifNew data shows complete donor chimerism in all patients (13/13) from Cohort C.
Worry ifData shows no change in donor chimerism rates for Cohort C patients.
Why it matters: Starting these studies is key for expanding the heme program and could signal progress in TScan's pipeline.
Supportive ifPhase 1 studies of TSC-102-A01 and TSC-102-A03 are initiated as planned.
Worry ifPhase 1 studies are delayed or canceled. This shows more problems in operations.