Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
USA TODAY Co., Inc. (TDAY)
NYSECommunication ServicesPublishingSnapshot 2026-11-04
$6.12+0.82%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSECommunication ServicesPublishingSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
0.28 → 0.28 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 4 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 4 to 4; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for TDAY yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Grow Adjusted EBITDA in 2026 | Adjusted EBITDA growth is on track. | Intact | Adjusted EBITDA declines in FY26 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Nov 5, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a higher-risk business improvement story, not a proven durable compounder, because earnings quality is still loss-making. The thesis is intact over the current three-to-six-month period, while recent quality and momentum measures have improved.
The valuation evidence points to TDAY being cheap versus peers, though the model has low confidence and also reports a peer premium, leaving the comparison uncertain. The priced-in tag is justified and fragility is low, but the negative expectations gap suggests room for expectations to fall short of what is assumed.
Near-term results are mixed: second-quarter free cash flow grew 11% year over year and adjusted EBITDA is up against management’s 2026 goals, while revenue continued to decline within the stated guidance range. Management has reiterated its goals, but losses, erratic earnings surprises, and a headwind sector backdrop keep risk elevated; the next guidance update is an important check.
The multi-year view depends on management sustaining double-digit free cash flow growth and adjusted EBITDA growth while keeping revenue declines within its stated range. A guidance cut would be a meaningful negative, while rate cuts or continued strong results from sector bellwethers could provide a more supportive backdrop.
Over the next one to three years, TDAY’s thesis rests on cash flow and EBITDA progress becoming durable despite declining revenue and loss-making earnings. The evidence is mixed, and confidence is medium. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| USA TODAY aims to grow free cash flow by double digits in 2026. |
| Intact |
| free cash flow growth falls below 5% in FY26 |
Free cash flow growth: 11.84% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=10% YoY growth. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 6, 202611.84203 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 2 of 2 supplied quarters. Management reported: “We reduced operating expenses by approximately 8% year-over-year, generated approximately $20 million of free cash flow, an increase of approximately 11% year-over-year, and delivered positive net income for the second consecutive quarter," said Michael Reed, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer.” Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Maintain flat to low single-digit revenue decline in 2026 | Revenue decline is expected to be limited to low single digits. | Broken | revenue decline exceeds -5% in FY26 | Revenue: $536.337M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: revenue decline no worse than -5% YoY. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 6, 2026536,337,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 2 of 2 supplied quarters. Management reported: “◦ Key metrics improved sequentially including core platform revenues (3) , Segment Adjusted EBITDA (1) , core platform average revenue per user (3) and core platform average customer count (3) Second Quarter 2026 Capital Structure Highlights: • Cash and cash equivalents of $86.7 million as of June 30, 2026 • Total debt principal outstanding at June 30, 2026 was $970.5 million, including $722.7 million in first lien debt • First lien net leverage (4) was 2.3x, a decrease of 14% year-over-year Business Outlook: (5) The Company reiterates its full year 2026 outlook.” “"The second quarter reflected continued progress against our long-term strategy and reinforced our confidence in reaffirming our full-year outlook.” Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$0.31 → $0.28 · observed estimates
$2.17B → $2.14B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $0.31 | $2,168,691,250 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-07-25 | $0.31 | $2,168,691,250 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-07-26 | $0.31 | $2,168,691,250 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-07-27 | $0.31 | $2,168,691,250 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-07-28 | $0.31 | $2,168,691,250 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-07-29 | $0.28 | $2,168,291,250 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-07-30 | $0.31 | $2,168,691,250 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-07-31 | $0.31 | $2,168,691,250 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-01 | $0.28 | $2,168,291,250 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-02 | $0.31 | $2,168,691,250 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-03 | $0.28 | $2,168,291,250 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-04 | $0.31 | $2,168,691,250 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-05 | $0.28 | $2,168,291,250 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-06 | $0.31 | $2,168,691,250 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-08 | $0.28 | $2,168,291,250 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-09 | $0.32 | $2,168,291,250 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-10 | $0.28 | $2,168,291,250 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-12 | $0.28 | $2,153,425,460 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-13 | $0.28 | $2,168,291,250 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-14 | $0.28 | $2,168,291,250 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-15 | $0.28 | $2,168,291,250 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-16 | $0.28 | $2,168,291,250 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-17 | $0.28 | $2,168,291,250 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-18 | $0.28 | $2,168,291,250 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-19 | $0.28 | $2,168,291,250 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-20 | $0.27 | $2,153,425,457 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-21 | $0.27 | $2,153,425,457 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-22 | $0.27 | $2,164,381,821 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-23 | $0.27 | $2,164,381,821 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-24 | $0.27 | $2,164,381,821 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-25 | $0.27 | $2,164,381,821 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-26 | $0.28 | $2,137,905,456 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-27 | $0.28 | $2,137,905,456 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-28 | $0.28 | $2,137,905,456 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-29 | $0.28 | $2,137,905,456 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-30 | $0.28 | $2,137,905,456 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-31 | $0.28 | $2,137,905,456 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-01 | $0.28 | $2,137,905,456 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-02 | $0.28 | $2,137,905,456 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-03 | $0.28 | $2,137,905,456 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-04 | $0.28 | $2,137,905,456 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-05 | $0.28 | $2,137,905,456 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-06 | $0.28 | $2,137,905,456 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-07 | $0.28 | $2,137,905,456 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-08 | $0.28 | $2,137,905,456 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-09 | $0.28 | $2,137,905,456 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-10 | $0.28 | $2,137,905,456 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-11 | $0.28 | $2,137,905,456 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-12 | $0.28 | $2,137,905,456 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-13 | $0.28 | $2,137,905,456 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-14 | $0.28 | $2,137,905,456 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-15 | $0.28 | $2,137,905,456 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-16 | $0.28 | $2,137,905,456 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-17 | $0.28 | $2,137,905,456 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-18 | $0.28 | $2,137,905,456 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-19 | $0.28 | $2,137,905,456 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-20 | $0.28 | $2,137,905,456 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-21 | $0.28 | $2,137,905,456 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-22 | $0.28 | $2,137,905,456 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-23 | $0.28 | $2,137,905,456 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-24 | $0.28 | $2,137,905,456 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-25 | $0.28 | $2,137,905,456 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-26 | $0.28 | $2,137,905,456 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-27 | $0.28 | $2,137,905,456 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-28 | $0.28 | $2,137,905,456 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-29 | $0.28 | $2,137,905,456 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-30 | $0.28 | $2,137,905,456 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-01 | $0.28 | $2,137,905,456 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-02 | $0.28 | $2,137,905,456 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-03 | $0.28 | $2,137,905,456 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-04 | $0.28 | $2,137,905,456 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-05 | $0.28 | $2,137,905,456 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-06 | $0.28 | $2,137,905,456 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-07 | $0.28 | $2,137,905,456 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-08 | $0.28 | $2,137,905,456 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-09 | $0.28 | $2,137,905,456 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-10 | $0.28 | $2,137,905,456 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-11 | $0.28 | $2,137,905,456 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-12 | $0.28 | $2,137,905,456 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-13 | $0.28 | $2,137,905,456 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-14 | $0.28 | $2,137,905,456 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-15 | $0.28 | $2,137,905,456 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-16 | $0.28 | $2,137,905,456 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-17 | $0.28 | $2,137,905,456 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-18 | $0.28 | $2,137,905,456 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-19 | $0.28 | $2,137,905,456 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-20 | $0.28 | $2,137,905,456 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-21 | $0.28 | $2,137,905,456 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-22 | $0.28 | $2,137,905,456 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-23 | $0.28 | $2,137,905,456 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-24 | $0.28 | $2,137,905,456 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-25 | $0.28 | $2,137,905,456 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-26 | $0.28 | $2,137,905,456 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-27 | $0.28 | $2,137,905,456 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-28 | $0.28 | $2,137,905,456 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-29 | $0.28 | $2,137,905,456 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-30 | $0.28 | $2,137,905,456 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-31 | $0.28 | $2,137,905,456 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-11-01 | $0.28 | $2,137,905,456 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-11-02 | $0.28 | $2,137,905,456 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-11-03 | $0.28 | $2,137,905,456 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-11-04 | $0.28 | $2,137,905,456 | 4 / 5 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 4 Buy / Strong Buy · 1 Hold · 1 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.