USA TODAY Co., Inc. (TDAY)
NYSECommunication ServicesPublishingSnapshot 2026-11-04
$6.07+6.12%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NYSECommunication ServicesPublishingSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · TDAY
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -47.0% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | -3.6% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 43.4 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 1 industry peers
TDAY — officer change
Dated 2026-09-15
Director — Timothy Allen: The filing discloses the appointment of a new director to the board, which is a routine governance event and not a departure of a senior executive.
Why it matters: Q2 revenue fell 6.1% on a same-store basis. Management's full-year range is flat to down in the low single digits.
Worry ifQ3 same-store revenue falls more than 5% year over year. Or management cuts its full-year outlook below the low-single-digit decline range.
Less concerning ifQ3 same-store revenue is flat or down no more than 3% year over year, and the full-year outlook is unchanged.
Why it matters: Management expects digital revenue to exceed 50% of total revenue in 2026. Q3 will show whether that share is rising.
Supportive ifQ3 digital revenue is at least 50% of total revenue and grows year over year on a same-store basis.
Worry ifQ3 digital revenue stays below 50% of total revenue and falls year over year on a same-store basis.
Why it matters: The sector signal shows recent weakness and flags falling revenue growth as a key change to watch. TDAY's Q3 results can show whether its revenue decline deepens.
Worry ifTDAY reports Q3 same-store revenue down more than 5% year over year.
Less concerning ifTDAY reports Q3 same-store revenue flat or up year over year.
Why it matters: Management reaffirmed double-digit free cash flow growth for 2026. Q3 results test progress toward that goal.
Supportive ifQ3 free cash flow is above the prior-year quarter, and full-year free cash flow growth remains on track for double digits.
Worry ifQ3 free cash flow falls year over year, or management drops its double-digit full-year growth outlook.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$153 on $10,000 · ±1.5% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $400 loss on $10,000 · 4.0% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,666 loss on $10,000 · 36.7% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.