USA TODAY Co., Inc. (TDAY)
NYSECommunication ServicesPublishingSnapshot 2026-09-04
$6.33-2.16%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSECommunication ServicesPublishingSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · TDAY
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -52.2% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | -3.2% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 49.1 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 6 industry peers
TDAY — litigation filed
Dated 2026-05-12
Regulation FD Disclosure. On May 5, 2026 , Michael Reed, Chief Executive Officer of USA TODAY Co., Inc. (the "Company"), during an investor call, characterized amounts as estimated damages in relation to the Company's ongoing litigation with Google instead of characterizing such amounts as Google's interference with the Company's revenues. The Company clarifies that it has not publicly disclosed, reported, or quantified any estimate of damages in connection with this litigation. However, cons…
Why it matters: A smaller drop would mean the company is handling revenue better than expected.
Supportive ifQ2 revenue decline is less than 5% compared to the previous year.
Worry ifQ2 revenue decline exceeds 5% compared to the previous year.
Why it matters: Growth in digital-only subscriptions shows that USA TODAY is adapting well to market changes. This is key for future revenue.
Supportive ifDigital-only subscription revenue grows more than 5% each year.
Worry ifDigital-only subscription revenue falls or stays the same each year.
Why it matters: Growth in Adjusted EBITDA means the company is making more money and cutting costs.
Supportive ifAdjusted EBITDA grows more than 10% each year.
Worry ifAdjusted EBITDA grows less than 10% each year or falls.
Why it matters: A better earnings report could show the recent rise in company momentum and insight scores.
Supportive ifThe earnings report shows a big increase in revenue and profit from the last quarter.
Worry ifThe earnings report shows flat or lower revenue and profit from the last quarter.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$176 on $10,000 · ±1.8% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $410 loss on $10,000 · 4.1% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,156 loss on $10,000 · 31.6% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Hitting this growth target shows digital revenues are doing well. It means strong demand and good strategy.
Supportive ifQ2 digital revenue grew at or above 5% from last year.
Worry ifQ2 digital revenue grew below 5% from last year.
Why it matters: Positive revenue growth could mean a turnaround in the declining sector. This might boost investor confidence.
Supportive ifRevenue growth turns positive year over year in the next quarter.
Worry ifRevenue growth remains negative year over year for another quarter.
Why it matters: Better same-store revenue decline would show recovery in core business. This is key for long-term growth.
Supportive ifSame-store revenue decline was less than -1.5% year-over-year in Q2.
Worry ifSame-store revenue decline was worse than -1.5% year-over-year in Q2.
Why it matters: Updates on the lawsuit could affect investor trust and financial views. It is a big risk for the company.
Worry ifPositive outcome or settlement in the lawsuit with Google.
Less concerning ifBad news or higher damage estimates in the lawsuit with Google.
Why it matters: Keeping revenue loss below -5% shows the business is getting stable.
Supportive ifTotal revenues in Q3 decline less than -5% year-over-year.
Worry ifTotal revenues in Q3 decline worse than -5% year-over-year.
Why it matters: Growth in free cash flow helps the company's spending plans and financial health.
Supportive ifFree cash flow in Q3 grows year-over-year above $19.6 million.
Worry ifFree cash flow in Q3 declines year-over-year.