TransDigm Group (TDG)
NYSEIndustrialsAerospace & DefenseSnapshot 2026-09-04
$1162.05+0.36%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEIndustrialsAerospace & DefenseSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · TDG
Price, fair value, and the multiples that frame it on the same time axis. Scroll over the price chart to zoom.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots inline.
A consensus fair price across 10 valuation methods, at three horizons. As of 2026-09-04. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $1,162 TDG trades at 30× p/e, below its 30× p/e peer median. Our $1,551 fair value sits well above the price. It's a high-confidence read. Analysts target $1,345–$1,695. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Score 100 = cheapest in the cohort, 0 = richest. Bars are filled left-to-right based on the peer-relative score (or PEG/self-history where shown).
Each method's implied share price per horizon. Provisional rows use a projected (historical-CAGR) growth input rather than analyst or management guidance.
| Method | Horizon | Est. price | Multiple | Per-share input | EPS source | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| analyst target | 12M | $1450.00 | — | — | Analyst | high |
| dcf fcfe | 12M | $7240.24 | — | — | Hist. CAGR | high |
| dcf fcff | 12M | $2594.35 | — | — | Hist. CAGR | high |
| ddm gordon | 12M | $627.20 | — | — | TTM | high |
| Peer EV/EBITDA |
A “consensus-then vs. actual-now” overlay is on the way — what our valuation estimate said on a past date versus where the price actually landed.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
Below average on quality vs scored peers
A second lens on the 12-month fair value: for companies that score high on measured quality (profitability, balance-sheet safety, earnings stability), this read trusts more of today's profit margins instead of averaging them toward their multi-year history the way the headline number does. Shown alongside the fair value above, not in place of it. A diagnostic, not a price target or a buy/sell signal.
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
$1345.00 – $1695.00 (median $1450.00) · 7 analysts · as of 2026-08-10
No fragility gates fired. Regime (Mania) does not concentrate fragility.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
At today's price you pay about 23% over what the business is worth with no growth; closing that gap needs roughly 2.0 years of the forecast growth to come through. These describe the expectations embedded in the price, not a forecast of the move. Reverse-DCF base: $41.06/sh owner earnings.
Roughly priced in line with peers.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1, 2026-Q2, 2026-Q3
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
| 12M |
| $1374.57 |
| 27.0 |
| 70.74 |
| TTM |
| high |
| Peer P/FCF | 12M | $1019.85 | 30.4 | 33.57 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/E | 12M | $1328.54 | 27.8 | 47.82 | ntm analyst | high |
| Peer P/S | 12M | $574.50 | 3.3 | 174.36 | TTM | high |
| PEG | 12M | $1647.18 | 42.4 | 38.87 | TTM | high |
| triangulated | 12M | $1245.16 | 30.3 | 41.05 | Triangulated | high |
| Peer P/FCF | 3Y | $1551.07 | 30.4 | 51.06 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/FCF | 5Y | $2051.28 | 30.4 | 67.52 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | medium |