TransDigm Group (TDG)
NYSEIndustrialsAerospace & DefenseSnapshot 2026-07-07
$1329.40-1.24%
Close 2026-07-07 · 1-day change
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Price, fair value, and the multiples that frame it on the same time axis. Scroll over the price chart to zoom.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots inline.
A consensus fair price across 12 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $1329.40. As of 2026-07-08. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
Below average on quality vs scored peers
A second lens on the 12-month fair value: for companies that score high on measured quality (profitability, balance-sheet safety, earnings stability), this read trusts more of today's profit margins instead of averaging them toward their multi-year history the way the headline number does. Shown alongside the fair value above, not in place of it. A diagnostic, not a price target or a buy/sell signal.
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $1,329 TDG trades at 38× p/e, in line with its 38× p/e peer median, and our $1,385 fair value agrees. It's a high-confidence read. Analysts target $1,350–$1,680. Not investment advice.
$1350.00 – $1680.00 (median $1575.00) · 5 analysts · as of 2026-05-10
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Only weak execution quality — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack. Regime (Mania) does not concentrate fragility.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
At today's price you pay about 53% over what the business is worth with no growth; closing that gap needs roughly 4.0 years of the forecast growth to come through. These describe the expectations embedded in the price, not a forecast of the move. Reverse-DCF base: $38.46/sh owner earnings.
Roughly priced in line with peers.
Around its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1, 2026-Q2
Score 100 = cheapest in the cohort, 0 = richest. Bars are filled left-to-right based on the peer-relative score (or PEG/self-history where shown).
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
Each method's implied share price per horizon. Provisional rows use a projected (historical-CAGR) growth input rather than analyst or management guidance.
| Method | Horizon | Est. price | Multiple | Per-share input | EPS source | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| analyst target | 12M | $1575.00 | — | — | Analyst | high |
| dcf fcfe | 12M | $1450.68 | — | — | Hist. CAGR | high |
| dcf fcff | 12M | $1294.77 | — | — | Hist. CAGR | high |
| ddm gordon | 12M | $653.05 | — | — | TTM | high |
| Mgmt guidance | 12M | $1320.34 | 38.2 | 34.60 | Mgmt | high |
| Peer EV/EBITDA | 12M | $1522.03 | 25.5 | 78.51 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/FCF | 12M | $1086.69 | 34.2 | 31.79 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/E | 12M | $1327.21 | 38.2 | 34.78 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/S | 12M | $544.77 | 3.3 | 163.30 | TTM | high |
| PEG | 12M | $1305.97 | 37.5 | 34.78 | TTM | high |
| Own P/E history | 12M | $1347.24 | 38.7 | 34.78 | TTM | high |
| triangulated | 12M | $1389.86 | 38.2 | 36.42 | Triangulated | high |
| Mgmt guidance | 3Y | $2745.72 | 38.2 | 71.95 | Mgmt(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/FCF | 3Y | $1652.71 | 34.2 | 48.34 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/E | 3Y | $2098.87 | 38.2 | 55.00 | Analyst | medium |
| Peer P/S | 3Y | $761.52 | 3.3 | 228.27 | guidance | medium |
| PEG | 3Y | $2065.28 | 37.5 | 55.00 | Analyst | medium |
| Own P/E history | 3Y | $2130.55 | 38.7 | 55.00 | Analyst | medium |
| Mgmt guidance | 5Y | $4473.37 | 38.2 | 117.23 | Mgmt(prov.) | high |
| Peer P/FCF | 5Y | $2185.71 | 34.2 | 63.93 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | high |
| Peer P/E | 5Y | $2493.98 | 38.2 | 65.36 | Analyst | high |
| Peer P/S | 5Y | $904.87 | 3.3 | 271.24 | guidance | high |
| PEG | 5Y | $2454.06 | 37.5 | 65.36 | Analyst | high |
| Own P/E history | 5Y | $2531.62 | 38.7 | 65.36 | Analyst | high |
A “consensus-then vs. actual-now” overlay is on the way — what our valuation estimate said on a past date versus where the price actually landed.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.