Expectations trend
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-09-30 · fmp
TransDigm Group (TDG)
NYSEIndustrialsAerospace & DefenseSnapshot 2026-11-05
$1189.19-2.28%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEIndustrialsAerospace & DefenseSnapshot 2026-11-05
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
55.52 → 55.61 EPS · FY ending Sep 30, 2028 · 10 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 6, 2026 to Nov 5, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 12 to 10; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for TDG yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Complete acquisition of Stellant Systems for $960 million | A supporting condition in TransDigm Group's published investment case. The stated target is Acquisition completed at $960 million. | Intact | Acquisition is delayed or canceled | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-09-30 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
TDG is an aerospace growth and acquisition story, rather than a turnaround or deep-value case. Its long-term thesis is intact, though confidence has eased from high to medium and management execution is rated volatile.
TDG is expensive versus peers, with a substantial premium and an expectations gap that is slightly negative. The valuation is tagged as justified, with no flagged fragility, but that leaves limited room for execution to weaken without challenging the thesis.
Near term, management is on track with higher fiscal 2026 revenue guidance, acquisitions, and share repurchases. Revenue guidance implies 19% growth at the midpoint versus fiscal 2025, while recent financial performance is rated neutral and the sector backdrop is a headwind. The stated risk of a guidance reversal matters because recent history includes deep misses and misses across recent quarters.
Over the next one to three years, the thesis depends on continued revenue growth and successful integration of the aerospace acquisitions. Near term, a guidance cut after recent increases would hurt management credibility, while results and guidance from sector bellwethers SPCX, GE, and RTX could either sustain or weaken the sector backdrop.
The multi-year view remains intact, but the expensive valuation, volatile management assessment, and sector headwind make continued execution important. The evidence is mixed, so confidence is medium. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| A supporting condition in TransDigm Group's published investment case. The stated target is >= $723 million spent on buybacks in Q2 2026. |
| Intact |
| Buybacks fall significantly below $700 million in Q2 2026 |
Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
EPS near $34.6 in Q3 2026 | Earnings per share are expected near $34.6 in Q3 2026. | Intact | EPS falls below $33.9 in Q3 2026 | Diluted EPS: $9.39 per share FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: ~$34.6 per share. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Aug 4, 20269.39 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Revenue grows to about $10.42 billion in fiscal 2026 | TransDigm grows revenue about 15% a year. | Intact | Revenue falls below $9.75 billion in 2026 | Revenue: $2.741B FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >= $10.42 billion. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Aug 4, 20262,741,000,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 3 of 8 supplied quarters. Management reported: “3 Fiscal 2026 Outlook Mr. Lisman stated, “We are pleased to once again raise our full year fiscal 2026 financial guidance to reflect our strong second quarter performance and incorporate the recently closed acquisition of Jet Parts Engineering and Victor Sierra.” “At the mid-point, we are increasing guidance for sales by $420 million, EBITDA As Defined guidance by $210 million, and adjusted EPS by $1.14.” Delivery assessment Nov 5, 2026 |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$55.38 → $55.61 · observed estimates
$12.43B → $12.61B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-01 | $55.38 | $12,429,620,232 | 12 / 18 |
| 2026-10-02 | $55.38 | $12,429,620,232 | 12 / 17 |
| 2026-10-03 | $55.38 | $12,429,620,232 | 12 / 17 |
| 2026-10-04 | $55.38 | $12,429,620,232 | 12 / 17 |
| 2026-10-05 | $55.38 | $12,429,620,232 | 12 / 17 |
| 2026-10-06 | $55.52 | $12,457,553,956 | 12 / 17 |
| 2026-10-07 | $55.52 | $12,457,553,956 | 12 / 17 |
| 2026-10-08 | $55.46 | $12,489,295,532 | 12 / 17 |
| 2026-10-09 | $55.33 | $12,512,472,003 | 11 / 17 |
| 2026-10-10 | $55.33 | $12,512,472,003 | 11 / 17 |
| 2026-10-11 | $55.33 | $12,509,177,885 | 11 / 17 |
| 2026-10-12 | $55.45 | $12,534,962,356 | 11 / 17 |
| 2026-10-13 | $55.45 | $12,534,962,356 | 11 / 17 |
| 2026-10-14 | $55.52 | $12,562,216,474 | 11 / 17 |
| 2026-10-15 | $55.52 | $12,562,216,474 | 11 / 17 |
| 2026-10-16 | $55.62 | $12,589,687,062 | 11 / 17 |
| 2026-10-17 | $55.62 | $12,589,687,062 | 11 / 17 |
| 2026-10-18 | $55.62 | $12,589,696,938 | 11 / 17 |
| 2026-10-19 | $55.62 | $12,589,696,938 | 11 / 17 |
| 2026-10-20 | $55.60 | $12,588,126,350 | 11 / 17 |
| 2026-10-21 | $55.61 | $12,612,319,013 | 11 / 17 |
| 2026-10-22 | $55.61 | $12,612,319,013 | 11 / 17 |
| 2026-10-23 | $55.61 | $12,612,319,013 | 11 / 17 |
| 2026-10-24 | $55.61 | $12,612,319,013 | 11 / 17 |
| 2026-10-25 | $55.61 | $12,612,319,013 | 11 / 17 |
| 2026-10-26 | $55.61 | $12,612,319,013 | 11 / 17 |
| 2026-10-27 | $55.61 | $12,612,319,013 | 11 / 17 |
| 2026-10-28 | $55.61 | $12,612,319,013 | 11 / 17 |
| 2026-10-29 | $55.61 | $12,612,319,013 | 11 / 17 |
| 2026-10-30 | $55.61 | $12,612,319,013 | 11 / 17 |
| 2026-10-31 | $55.61 | $12,612,319,013 | 11 / 17 |
| 2026-11-01 | $55.61 | $12,612,319,013 | 11 / 17 |
| 2026-11-02 | $55.61 | $12,612,319,013 | 11 / 17 |
| 2026-11-03 | $55.61 | $12,612,319,013 | 11 / 17 |
| 2026-11-04 | $55.61 | $12,612,319,013 | 10 / 17 |
| 2026-11-05 | $55.61 | $12,612,319,013 | 10 / 17 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 12 Buy / Strong Buy · 11 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 7–Nov 5 · 4 recorded
0 raises · 2 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior
Oct 7, 2026–Nov 5, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Nov 10, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Review earnings4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.