TransDigm Group (TDG)
NYSEIndustrialsAerospace & DefenseSnapshot 2026-09-04
$1162.05+0.36%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEIndustrialsAerospace & DefenseSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · TDG
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -25.1% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| 14.4% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 39.5 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 55 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
TDG — director transition
Dated 2026-07-24
Director — Irina Krasik: Ms. Irina Krasik was appointed to the Board of Directors.
Why it matters: A high EBITDA margin shows good efficiency. It means the company makes more money.
Supportive ifEBITDA margin was above 52% for Q3.
Worry ifEBITDA margin was below 50% for Q3.
Why it matters: Strong revenue growth shows the company can keep growing and follow its plan.
Supportive ifQ3 revenue growth reported above 20% year over year.
Worry ifQ3 revenue growth reported below 15% year over year.
Why it matters: Continuing the buyback program shows strong use of capital. It also supports shareholder value.
Supportive ifTransDigm repurchases at least $800 million worth of shares in the fiscal year.
Worry ifTransDigm stops or greatly cuts back its share buyback activity.
Why it matters: Finishing this acquisition would improve TransDigm's market position. It would also expand its product range.
Supportive ifTransDigm completes the Stellant Systems acquisition. The cost is $960 million.
Worry ifTransDigm withdraws from the acquisition of Stellant Systems.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$121 on $10,000 · ±1.2% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $267 loss on $10,000 · 2.7% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,187 loss on $10,000 · 21.9% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Updates on the buyback program show management's trust in the company's value.
Watch forNews of more share buybacks beyond the planned $905 million.
Also watch forNo further share repurchases announced, or a halt in the buyback program.
Why it matters: Strong share buybacks signal management's confidence in the company's value and can support stock price.
Supportive ifShare repurchases in Q3 exceed $1 billion.
Worry ifShare repurchases fall below $500 million in Q3.
Why it matters: Higher adjusted EPS shows strong profits. It also means good cost management.
Supportive ifAdjusted EPS is reported at over $40.62.
Worry ifAdjusted EPS reported at or below $40.62.
Why it matters: Keeping this growth rate shows strong demand and good market strategies.
Supportive ifOrganic sales growth reported above 10% for Q4.
Worry ifOrganic sales growth falls below 10% for Q4.
Why it matters: Management raised revenue guidance for fiscal 2026. This shows strong growth continues.
Supportive ifQ3 revenue guidance confirms net sales in the range of $10,300 million to $10,420 million.
Worry ifGuidance is lower or stays the same from the last announcement.
Why it matters: Strong performance may lead to higher revenue expectations. This can boost investor confidence.
Supportive ifManagement raises revenue guidance for fiscal 2026 by more than $150 million.
Worry ifManagement keeps or lowers revenue guidance for fiscal 2026.
Why it matters: Exceeding this guidance would show strong growth momentum and confidence in future sales.
Supportive ifManagement expects Q4 revenue to be more than $10.55 billion.
Worry ifRevenue guidance remains at or below $10.55 billion.
Why it matters: Completing this deal would improve TransDigm's products and market position.
Supportive ifRegulatory approvals come through and the deal closes.
Worry ifThe deal faces delays or gets canceled.
Why it matters: Going over this amount shows strong commitment to returning capital and cash flow.
Supportive ifTotal share buybacks go over $2 billion by year-end.
Worry ifShare repurchases fall short of $2 billion.
Why it matters: Exceeding this growth rate would indicate strong demand in the defense sector.
Supportive ifDefense revenue growth reported above 10% YoY.
Worry ifDefense revenue growth reported below 10% YoY.