Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
ThredUp, Inc. (TDUP)
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionarySpecialty RetailSnapshot 2026-11-04
$2.19+9.50%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionarySpecialty RetailSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
Matching fiscal periods, usable estimates and at least one analyst are required.
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least one analyst and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for TDUP yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Adjusted EBITDA margin improves to ~6.0% in 2026 | The company aims for a 6% adjusted EBITDA margin in 2026. | Improving | Adjusted EBITDA margin remains below 4% in FY26 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a loss-making, higher-risk growth business, not a proven durable compounder. The multi-year view remains on watch: revenue is growing and management’s priorities are stable, but recent financial performance is weak.
The valuation is about 14% above peers, while the expectations gap is small and the evidence labels the valuation as justified. That suggests expectations are broadly aligned rather than highly stretched, though the business remains loss-making.
Near term, revenue growth is on track, gross margin is slightly above the prior-year quarter, and adjusted EBITDA margin has improved but remains short of management’s roughly 6% goal. The August earnings miss and weak results versus the industry cohort remain risks, even as company momentum and quality measures have improved.
The multi-year thesis depends on revenue growth continuing and adjusted EBITDA margin progressing toward management’s 2026 goal. Near term, a guidance cut would be a meaningful setback; results and guidance from large consumer companies such as AMZN, BABA, and PDD may also affect the sector backdrop.
TDUP has signs of improving execution, but its loss-making status, high risk, and recent miss leave the 1-to-3-year thesis dependent on sustained growth and margin progress. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| Its gross margin is strong near 79%. |
| Intact |
| Gross margin falls below 78.5% in FY26 |
Gross margin: 78.24% FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: 78.5% - 79.5%. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Nov 4, 202678.242095 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 3 of 3 supplied quarters. Management reported: ““We're pleased with our Q2 results, which exceeded our expectations across the board," said ThredUp CEO and co-founder James Reinhart.” “"Our fundamentals remain strong, active buyers are growing, supply quality is improving, and we're methodically expanding Adjusted EBITDA.” Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Revenue reaches $351M-$356M in 2026 | A primary condition in ThredUp, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >= $351.2M and <= $356.2M. | Broken | Revenue falls below $351M in FY26 | Revenue: $88.23M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >= $351.2M and <= $356.2M. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Nov 4, 202688,230,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$-0.06 → $-0.11 · observed estimates
$0.39B → $0.38B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $-0.06 | $391,687,830 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-07-25 | $-0.06 | $391,687,830 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-07-26 | $-0.06 | $391,687,830 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-07-27 | $-0.06 | $391,687,830 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-07-28 | $-0.06 | $391,687,830 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-07-29 | $-0.06 | $391,687,830 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-07-30 | $-0.06 | $391,687,830 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-07-31 | $-0.06 | $391,687,830 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-01 | $-0.06 | $391,688,800 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-02 | $-0.06 | $391,687,830 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-03 | $-0.06 | $391,688,800 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-04 | $-0.06 | $391,687,830 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-05 | $-0.06 | $391,688,800 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-06 | $-0.06 | $391,687,830 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-08 | $-0.11 | $382,596,143 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-09 | $-0.07 | $385,362,170 | 1 / 6 |
| 2026-08-10 | $-0.07 | $385,362,170 | 1 / 6 |
| 2026-08-12 | $-0.11 | $382,596,143 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-13 | $-0.11 | $382,596,143 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-14 | $-0.11 | $382,596,143 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-15 | $-0.11 | $382,596,143 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-16 | $-0.11 | $382,596,143 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-17 | $-0.11 | $382,596,143 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-18 | $-0.11 | $382,596,143 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-19 | $-0.11 | $382,596,143 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-20 | $-0.11 | $382,596,143 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-08-21 | $-0.11 | $382,596,143 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-08-22 | $-0.11 | $382,596,143 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-08-23 | $-0.11 | $382,596,143 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-08-24 | $-0.11 | $382,596,143 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-08-25 | $-0.11 | $382,593,729 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-08-26 | $-0.11 | $382,593,729 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-08-27 | $-0.11 | $382,593,729 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-08-28 | $-0.11 | $382,593,729 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-08-29 | $-0.11 | $382,593,729 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-08-30 | $-0.11 | $382,593,729 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-08-31 | $-0.11 | $382,593,729 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-09-01 | $-0.11 | $382,593,729 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-09-02 | $-0.11 | $382,593,729 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-09-03 | $-0.11 | $382,592,029 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-09-04 | $-0.11 | $382,592,029 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-09-05 | $-0.11 | $382,592,029 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-09-06 | $-0.11 | $382,592,029 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-09-07 | $-0.11 | $382,592,029 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-09-08 | $-0.11 | $382,592,029 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-09-09 | $-0.11 | $382,592,029 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-09-10 | $-0.11 | $382,592,029 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-09-11 | $-0.11 | $382,592,029 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-09-12 | $-0.11 | $382,592,029 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-09-13 | $-0.11 | $382,592,029 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-09-14 | $-0.11 | $382,592,029 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-09-15 | $-0.11 | $382,592,029 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-09-16 | $-0.11 | $382,592,029 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-09-17 | $-0.11 | $382,592,029 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-09-18 | $-0.11 | $382,592,029 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-09-19 | $-0.11 | $382,592,029 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-09-20 | $-0.11 | $382,592,029 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-09-21 | $-0.11 | $382,592,029 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-09-22 | $-0.11 | $382,592,029 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-09-23 | $-0.11 | $382,592,029 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-09-24 | $-0.11 | $382,592,029 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-09-25 | $-0.11 | $382,592,029 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-09-26 | $-0.11 | $382,592,029 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-09-27 | $-0.11 | $382,592,029 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-09-28 | $-0.11 | $382,592,029 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-09-29 | $-0.11 | $382,592,029 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-09-30 | $-0.11 | $382,592,029 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-10-01 | $-0.11 | $382,592,029 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-10-02 | $-0.11 | $382,592,029 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-03 | $-0.11 | $382,592,029 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-04 | $-0.11 | $382,592,029 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-05 | $-0.11 | $382,592,029 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-06 | $-0.11 | $382,592,029 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-07 | $-0.11 | $382,592,029 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-08 | $-0.11 | $382,592,029 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-09 | $-0.11 | $382,592,029 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-10 | $-0.11 | $382,592,029 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-11 | $-0.11 | $382,592,029 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-12 | $-0.11 | $382,592,029 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-13 | $-0.11 | $382,592,029 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-14 | $-0.11 | $382,592,029 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-15 | $-0.11 | $382,592,029 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-16 | $-0.11 | $382,592,029 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-17 | $-0.11 | $382,592,029 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-18 | $-0.11 | $382,592,029 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-19 | $-0.11 | $382,592,029 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-20 | $-0.11 | $382,592,029 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-21 | $-0.11 | $382,592,029 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-22 | $-0.11 | $382,592,029 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-23 | $-0.11 | $382,592,029 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-24 | $-0.11 | $382,592,029 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-25 | $-0.11 | $382,592,029 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-26 | $-0.11 | $382,592,029 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-27 | $-0.11 | $382,592,029 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-28 | $-0.11 | $382,592,029 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-29 | $-0.11 | $382,536,586 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-30 | $-0.11 | $382,536,586 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-31 | $-0.11 | $382,540,443 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-11-01 | $-0.11 | $382,540,443 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-11-02 | $-0.11 | $382,540,443 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-11-03 | $-0.11 | $382,534,557 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-11-04 | $-0.11 | $382,534,557 | 4 / 6 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 6 Buy / Strong Buy · 1 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.