ThredUp, Inc. (TDUP)
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionarySpecialty RetailSnapshot 2026-09-04
$2.72+1.87%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionarySpecialty RetailSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · TDUP
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 28.7% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 10.7% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 18.0 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 45 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
TDUP — earnings miss
Dated 2026-08-05
Results of Operations and Financial Condition On August 5, 2026, ThredUp Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing its financial results for the quarter ended June 30, 2026. A copy of the press release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1. In addition, a copy of the supplemental financial information is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.2. The press release and supplemental financial information are incorporated herein by reference. The information in this Current Report on Form 8-K an…
Why it matters: More active buyers means strong customer growth. This is key for revenue.
Supportive ifActive buyers were over 1.71 million. This shows strong customer growth.
Worry ifActive buyers were below 1.71 million. This shows possible customer retention issues.
Why it matters: A smaller net loss shows better financial health and cost control.
Supportive ifQ3 net loss reported below $6 million.
Worry ifQ3 net loss reported above $6 million.
Why it matters: A better adjusted EBITDA margin means the company is more efficient. This leads to more profit.
Supportive ifAdjusted EBITDA margin was 4.0% or higher for Q3.
Worry ifAdjusted EBITDA margin was below 4.0% for Q3.
Why it matters: A gross margin above this level shows good cost management and pricing power.
Supportive ifGross margin reported above 78.0% for Q3.
Worry ifGross margin reported below 78.0% for Q3.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$210 on $10,000 · ±2.1% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $655 loss on $10,000 · 6.6% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $7,828 loss on $10,000 · 78.3% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Another earnings beat would boost investor confidence. It would help the growth story.
Supportive ifQ2 earnings were above what analysts expected.
Worry ifQ2 earnings were below what analysts expected.
Why it matters: A rise in sector revenue growth may show a change in the consumer market.
Watch forSector revenue growth reported as positive year over year.
Also watch forSector revenue growth reported as negative year over year.
Why it matters: An increase means better cost management. It also means better efficiency and profits.
Supportive ifAdjusted EBITDA margin is over 5.2%. This means the company is in better financial shape.
Worry ifThe adjusted EBITDA margin is below 5.2%. This shows there are still problems with operations.
Why it matters: If revenue guidance is lower than expected, it shows possible weak demand.
Worry ifQ3 revenue guidance below $87 million, indicating a slowdown in growth.
Less concerning ifQ3 revenue guidance meets or exceeds $89 million, showing strong demand.
Why it matters: A decline in gross margin could signal rising costs or pricing pressures.
Worry ifGross margin below 78.0% shows possible cost problems.
Less concerning ifGross margin stays above 79.0%, showing strong cost management.
Why it matters: Slower growth in active buyers could indicate weakening market demand.
Worry ifActive buyers growth falls below 20% YoY, signaling potential market issues.
Less concerning ifActive buyers growth remains above 21% YoY, showing strong market engagement.