Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Teads Holding Co. (TEAD)
NASDAQCommunication ServicesInternet Content & InformationSnapshot 2026-11-04
$0.17-36.61%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQCommunication ServicesInternet Content & InformationSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
Matching fiscal periods, usable estimates and at least one analyst are required.
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least one analyst and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for TEAD yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Achieve $100 million adjusted EBITDA in 2026 | Teads aims to reach $100 million adjusted EBITDA in 2026. | Intact | adjusted EBITDA falls below $50 million in FY26 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 2 of 2 supplied quarters. Management reported: “Outlook Given the volatility of the Direct Response and SME business, and as we execute on our strategic initiatives, we are suspending guidance, including with respect to our previously provided full-year 2026 Adjusted EBITDA guidance.” “For the second quarter ending June 30, 2026, we expect: • Ex-TAC gross profit of $121 million to $131 million • Adjusted EBITDA of $14 million to $22 million For the full year ending December 31, 2026, we continue to expect: • Adjusted EBITDA of approximately $100 million The above measures are forward-looking non-GAAP financial measures for which a reconciliation to the most directly comparable GAAP financial measure is not available without unreasonable efforts.” |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Nov 5, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a high-risk, loss-making advertising business with a growth-and-execution thesis, rather than a proven durable compounder. The thesis is in a watch state: recent momentum weakened, and performance remains below its industry cohort, though the evidence does not show a fresh break.
TEAD is described as cheap versus peers, but confidence in that comparison is low, and the company is still loss-making. The evidence does not specify the market’s exact expectations; the key expectations gap is whether improving results can support management’s approximately $100 million 2026 Adjusted EBITDA goal.
Near term, earnings risk is elevated, with a stated 59% miss probability, and recent momentum has weakened. There are signs of progress: second-quarter CTV revenue grew 67% year over year, and operating cash flow turned positive, but Adjusted EBITDA was only $7.0 million in that quarter against the annual goal. A delisting-related notice and a new financial obligation add to the risks.
The multi-year view hinges on continued CTV growth, wider omnichannel adoption, and sustained improvement in cash flow and Adjusted EBITDA. Near term, a guidance cut would be a negative signal, while lower interest rates and strong results from large sector peers could support the sector backdrop.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, TEAD’s thesis remains uncertain: operating indicators have improved in some areas, but losses, execution risk, and weaker recent momentum remain central. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Improve cash from operations from negative levels | Management focuses on improving cash flow and gross profit. | Broken | cash flow remains below negative $20 million in FY26 | Cash from operations: $9.159M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: reduce negative cash flow by at least 50% by FY26. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Jun 30, 20269,159,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Increase gross profit towards prior levels | Management focuses on improving cash flow and gross profit. | Broken | gross profit remains below $90 million next 4 quarters | Gross profit: $95.6M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: gross profit >= $110 million next 4 quarters. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Aug 7, 202695,600,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$-0.55 → $-0.89 · observed estimates
$1.29B → $1.17B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $-0.55 | $1,289,666,670 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-07-25 | $-0.55 | $1,289,666,670 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-07-26 | $-0.55 | $1,289,666,670 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-07-27 | $-0.55 | $1,289,666,670 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-07-28 | $-0.55 | $1,289,666,670 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-07-29 | $-0.55 | $1,289,666,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-30 | $-0.55 | $1,289,666,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-31 | $-0.55 | $1,289,666,670 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-01 | $-0.55 | $1,289,666,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-02 | $-0.55 | $1,289,666,670 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-03 | $-0.55 | $1,289,666,670 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-04 | $-0.55 | $1,289,666,670 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-05 | $-0.55 | $1,289,666,670 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-06 | $-0.55 | $1,289,666,670 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-08 | $-0.55 | $1,289,666,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-09 | $-0.57 | $1,206,633,330 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-10 | $-0.57 | $1,206,633,330 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-12 | $-0.89 | $1,206,633,330 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-13 | $-0.55 | $1,289,666,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-14 | $-0.55 | $1,289,666,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-15 | $-0.55 | $1,289,666,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-16 | $-0.55 | $1,289,666,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-17 | $-0.55 | $1,289,666,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-18 | $-0.55 | $1,289,666,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-19 | $-0.55 | $1,289,666,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-20 | $-0.89 | $1,168,133,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-21 | $-0.89 | $1,168,133,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-22 | $-0.89 | $1,168,133,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-23 | $-0.89 | $1,168,133,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-24 | $-0.89 | $1,168,133,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-25 | $-0.89 | $1,168,133,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-26 | $-0.89 | $1,168,133,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-27 | $-0.89 | $1,168,133,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-28 | $-0.89 | $1,168,133,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-29 | $-0.89 | $1,168,133,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-30 | $-0.89 | $1,168,133,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-31 | $-0.89 | $1,168,133,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-01 | $-0.89 | $1,168,133,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-02 | $-0.89 | $1,168,133,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-03 | $-0.89 | $1,168,133,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-04 | $-0.89 | $1,168,133,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-05 | $-0.89 | $1,168,133,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-06 | $-0.89 | $1,168,133,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-07 | $-0.89 | $1,168,133,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-08 | $-0.89 | $1,168,133,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-09 | $-0.89 | $1,168,133,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-10 | $-0.89 | $1,168,133,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-11 | $-0.89 | $1,168,133,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-12 | $-0.89 | $1,168,133,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-13 | $-0.89 | $1,168,133,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-14 | $-0.89 | $1,168,133,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-15 | $-0.89 | $1,168,133,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-16 | $-0.89 | $1,168,133,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-17 | $-0.89 | $1,168,133,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-18 | $-0.89 | $1,168,133,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-19 | $-0.89 | $1,168,133,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-20 | $-0.89 | $1,168,133,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-21 | $-0.89 | $1,168,133,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-22 | $-0.89 | $1,168,133,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-23 | $-0.89 | $1,168,133,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-24 | $-0.89 | $1,168,133,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-25 | $-0.89 | $1,168,133,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-26 | $-0.89 | $1,168,133,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-27 | $-0.89 | $1,168,133,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-28 | $-0.89 | $1,168,133,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-29 | $-0.89 | $1,168,133,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-30 | $-0.89 | $1,168,133,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-01 | $-0.89 | $1,168,133,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-02 | $-0.89 | $1,168,133,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-03 | $-0.89 | $1,168,133,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-04 | $-0.89 | $1,168,133,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-05 | $-0.89 | $1,168,133,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-06 | $-0.89 | $1,168,133,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-07 | $-0.89 | $1,168,133,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-08 | $-0.89 | $1,168,133,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-09 | $-0.89 | $1,168,133,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-10 | $-0.89 | $1,168,133,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-11 | $-0.89 | $1,168,133,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-12 | $-0.89 | $1,168,133,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-13 | $-0.89 | $1,168,133,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-14 | $-0.89 | $1,168,133,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-15 | $-0.89 | $1,168,133,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-16 | $-0.89 | $1,168,133,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-17 | $-0.89 | $1,168,133,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-18 | $-0.89 | $1,168,133,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-19 | $-0.89 | $1,168,133,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-20 | $-0.89 | $1,168,133,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-21 | $-0.89 | $1,168,133,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-22 | $-0.89 | $1,168,133,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-23 | $-0.89 | $1,168,133,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-24 | $-0.89 | $1,168,133,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-25 | $-0.89 | $1,168,133,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-26 | $-0.89 | $1,168,133,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-27 | $-0.89 | $1,168,133,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-28 | $-0.89 | $1,168,133,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-29 | $-0.89 | $1,168,133,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-30 | $-0.89 | $1,168,133,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-31 | $-0.89 | $1,168,133,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-11-01 | $-0.89 | $1,168,133,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-11-02 | $-0.89 | $1,168,133,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-11-03 | $-0.89 | $1,168,133,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-11-04 | $-0.89 | $1,168,133,333 | 2 / 2 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 1 Buy / Strong Buy · 2 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.