Expectations trend
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-06-30 · fmp
ATLASSIAN CORPORATION (TEAM)
NASDAQInformation TechnologySoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-11-04
$189.88-0.61%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQInformation TechnologySoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
6.68 → 6.70 EPS · FY ending Jun 30, 2028 · 8 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 8 to 8; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for TEAM yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Achieve 26.5% cloud revenue growth | A primary condition in ATLASSIAN CORPORATION's published investment case. The stated target is >=26.5% YoY. | Intact | cloud revenue growth falls below 20% YoY in FY26 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-06-30 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Nov 5, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Review earningsObserved price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
TEAM is a growth-oriented software business, with the multi-year view relying on cloud adoption, enterprise expansion, and AI product execution. The thesis is currently intact, and company momentum has improved, though the evidence is mixed on profitability and overall risk is high.
TEAM is valued at a 1.35 premium to peers, and the evidence points to valuation as expensive. The expectations gap is 0.52, while the priced-in assessment labels the valuation unjustified; fragility is low because expensive valuation is not paired with a broader stack of weak fundamentals and turbulence.
Near-term, cloud revenue growth and recent quarterly profitability support the business, while management has reported progress on AI capabilities and user adoption. The multi-year trajectory depends on continuing cloud growth and improving GAAP operating profitability; guidance cuts, erratic earnings surprises, and recent peer misses remain risks.
The unfavorable scenario is a guidance cut on the next call, which would signal weaker expectations. Favorable factors include Fed rate cuts and stabilization among technology peers such as SAP, CRM, and NOW. Continued cloud growth and progress toward operating profitability are central to the multi-year thesis.
Over the next one to three years, TEAM’s thesis rests on sustained cloud and AI execution alongside more consistent profitability, while its expensive valuation leaves limited room for execution setbacks. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| It plans to keep gross margin near 84.5%. |
| Intact |
| gross margin falls below 80% in next 4 quarters |
Gross margin: 86.5% FY2026-Q4; GAAP. Published target: >=84.5%. The stored target says 2026-Q3; this source reports FY2026-Q4. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Oct 14, 202686.50115 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Successful restructuring and leadership stability | A supporting condition in ATLASSIAN CORPORATION's published investment case. The stated target is complete restructuring and stabilize leadership by end FY26. | Intact | major leadership departures or restructuring delays beyond FY26 | Restructuring initiated Mar 2026; CTO departure Mar 2026; CFO hired Feb 2026 10% workforce reduction announced Mar 2026. CTO stepped down, new CFO appointed. Earnings beats in Apr and Aug 2026. Nov 4, 2026Last status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$7.35 → $6.70 · observed estimates
$8.58B → $8.57B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $7.35 | $8,584,753,956 | 7 / 23 |
| 2026-07-25 | $7.35 | $8,584,753,956 | 7 / 23 |
| 2026-07-26 | $7.25 | $8,545,458,957 | 7 / 23 |
| 2026-07-27 | $7.25 | $8,545,458,957 | 7 / 23 |
| 2026-07-28 | $7.25 | $8,545,458,957 | 7 / 23 |
| 2026-07-29 | $7.23 | $8,525,472,048 | 7 / 23 |
| 2026-07-30 | $7.23 | $8,525,472,048 | 7 / 23 |
| 2026-07-31 | $7.18 | $8,504,294,007 | 7 / 23 |
| 2026-08-01 | $7.18 | $8,504,294,007 | 7 / 23 |
| 2026-08-02 | $7.18 | $8,504,294,007 | 7 / 23 |
| 2026-08-03 | $7.18 | $8,504,294,007 | 7 / 23 |
| 2026-08-04 | $7.18 | $8,501,101,773 | 7 / 23 |
| 2026-08-05 | $7.18 | $8,501,101,773 | 7 / 23 |
| 2026-08-06 | $7.18 | $8,501,101,773 | 7 / 23 |
| 2026-08-08 | $7.18 | $8,501,101,772 | 7 / 23 |
| 2026-08-09 | $6.87 | $8,560,814,440 | 27 / 25 |
| 2026-08-10 | $6.87 | $8,560,814,440 | 27 / 25 |
| 2026-08-12 | $6.76 | $8,577,890,579 | 30 / 29 |
| 2026-08-13 | $7.18 | $8,501,101,772 | 7 / 23 |
| 2026-08-14 | $7.18 | $8,501,101,772 | 7 / 23 |
| 2026-08-15 | $7.18 | $8,501,101,772 | 7 / 23 |
| 2026-08-16 | $7.18 | $8,501,101,772 | 18 / 26 |
| 2026-08-17 | $7.18 | $8,501,101,772 | 18 / 26 |
| 2026-08-18 | $7.18 | $8,501,101,772 | 19 / 26 |
| 2026-08-19 | $7.18 | $8,501,101,772 | 19 / 26 |
| 2026-08-20 | $6.69 | $8,564,128,810 | 15 / 22 |
| 2026-08-21 | $6.69 | $8,564,128,810 | 15 / 22 |
| 2026-08-22 | $6.69 | $8,564,128,810 | 15 / 22 |
| 2026-08-23 | $6.69 | $8,564,128,810 | 15 / 22 |
| 2026-08-24 | $6.69 | $8,564,128,810 | 15 / 21 |
| 2026-08-25 | $6.69 | $8,564,130,353 | 15 / 21 |
| 2026-08-26 | $6.69 | $8,564,130,353 | 15 / 21 |
| 2026-08-27 | $6.69 | $8,564,130,353 | 15 / 21 |
| 2026-08-28 | $6.69 | $8,564,130,353 | 15 / 21 |
| 2026-08-29 | $6.68 | $8,562,684,479 | 16 / 22 |
| 2026-08-30 | $6.68 | $8,562,684,479 | 16 / 22 |
| 2026-08-31 | $6.68 | $8,562,684,479 | 16 / 22 |
| 2026-09-01 | $6.68 | $8,562,684,479 | 16 / 22 |
| 2026-09-02 | $6.68 | $8,562,684,479 | 16 / 22 |
| 2026-09-03 | $6.68 | $8,562,684,479 | 16 / 22 |
| 2026-09-04 | $6.68 | $8,562,684,479 | 16 / 22 |
| 2026-09-05 | $6.68 | $8,562,684,479 | 16 / 22 |
| 2026-09-06 | $6.68 | $8,562,684,479 | 16 / 22 |
| 2026-09-07 | $6.68 | $8,562,684,479 | 16 / 22 |
| 2026-09-08 | $6.68 | $8,562,684,479 | 16 / 22 |
| 2026-09-09 | $6.68 | $8,562,684,479 | 16 / 22 |
| 2026-09-10 | $6.68 | $8,562,684,479 | 16 / 22 |
| 2026-09-11 | $6.68 | $8,562,684,479 | 16 / 22 |
| 2026-09-12 | $6.68 | $8,562,684,479 | 16 / 22 |
| 2026-09-13 | $6.68 | $8,562,684,479 | 16 / 22 |
| 2026-09-14 | $6.68 | $8,562,684,479 | 16 / 22 |
| 2026-09-15 | $6.68 | $8,562,684,479 | 16 / 22 |
| 2026-09-16 | $6.68 | $8,562,684,479 | 16 / 22 |
| 2026-09-17 | $6.68 | $8,562,684,479 | 16 / 22 |
| 2026-09-18 | $6.68 | $8,562,684,479 | 16 / 22 |
| 2026-09-19 | $6.68 | $8,562,684,479 | 16 / 22 |
| 2026-09-20 | $6.68 | $8,562,684,479 | 16 / 22 |
| 2026-09-21 | $6.68 | $8,562,684,479 | 16 / 22 |
| 2026-09-22 | $6.68 | $8,562,684,299 | 16 / 22 |
| 2026-09-23 | $6.68 | $8,562,684,299 | 16 / 22 |
| 2026-09-24 | $6.68 | $8,562,684,299 | 16 / 21 |
| 2026-09-25 | $6.68 | $8,562,684,299 | 16 / 21 |
| 2026-09-26 | $6.68 | $8,562,684,299 | 16 / 21 |
| 2026-09-27 | $6.68 | $8,562,684,299 | 16 / 21 |
| 2026-09-28 | $6.68 | $8,562,684,299 | 8 / 21 |
| 2026-09-29 | $6.68 | $8,562,684,299 | 14 / 19 |
| 2026-09-30 | $6.68 | $8,562,684,299 | 8 / 21 |
| 2026-10-01 | $6.68 | $8,562,684,299 | 8 / 21 |
| 2026-10-02 | $6.68 | $8,562,684,299 | 8 / 21 |
| 2026-10-03 | $6.68 | $8,562,684,299 | 8 / 22 |
| 2026-10-04 | $6.68 | $8,562,684,299 | 8 / 22 |
| 2026-10-05 | $6.68 | $8,562,684,299 | 8 / 22 |
| 2026-10-06 | $6.68 | $8,562,684,299 | 8 / 22 |
| 2026-10-07 | $6.68 | $8,562,684,299 | 8 / 22 |
| 2026-10-08 | $6.68 | $8,562,684,299 | 8 / 22 |
| 2026-10-09 | $6.68 | $8,562,684,299 | 8 / 22 |
| 2026-10-10 | $6.68 | $8,562,684,299 | 8 / 22 |
| 2026-10-11 | $6.68 | $8,562,684,299 | 8 / 22 |
| 2026-10-12 | $6.68 | $8,562,684,299 | 8 / 22 |
| 2026-10-13 | $6.68 | $8,562,684,299 | 8 / 22 |
| 2026-10-14 | $6.70 | $8,573,628,156 | 8 / 22 |
| 2026-10-15 | $6.70 | $8,573,514,996 | 8 / 23 |
| 2026-10-16 | $6.70 | $8,573,514,996 | 8 / 23 |
| 2026-10-17 | $6.70 | $8,573,514,996 | 8 / 23 |
| 2026-10-18 | $6.70 | $8,573,514,996 | 8 / 23 |
| 2026-10-19 | $6.70 | $8,573,514,996 | 8 / 23 |
| 2026-10-20 | $6.70 | $8,573,514,996 | 8 / 23 |
| 2026-10-21 | $6.70 | $8,573,515,146 | 8 / 23 |
| 2026-10-22 | $6.70 | $8,573,515,146 | 8 / 23 |
| 2026-10-23 | $6.70 | $8,573,515,146 | 8 / 23 |
| 2026-10-24 | $6.70 | $8,573,515,146 | 8 / 23 |
| 2026-10-25 | $6.70 | $8,573,515,146 | 8 / 23 |
| 2026-10-26 | $6.70 | $8,573,515,146 | 8 / 23 |
| 2026-10-27 | $6.70 | $8,573,515,146 | 8 / 23 |
| 2026-10-28 | $6.70 | $8,573,628,305 | 8 / 23 |
| 2026-10-29 | $6.70 | $8,573,628,305 | 8 / 23 |
| 2026-10-30 | $6.70 | $8,573,628,305 | 8 / 23 |
| 2026-10-31 | $6.70 | $8,573,628,305 | 8 / 23 |
| 2026-11-01 | $6.70 | $8,573,628,305 | 8 / 23 |
| 2026-11-02 | $6.70 | $8,573,628,305 | 8 / 23 |
| 2026-11-03 | $6.70 | $8,573,626,865 | 8 / 23 |
| 2026-11-04 | $6.70 | $8,573,628,465 | 8 / 23 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 27 Buy / Strong Buy · 6 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 13 recorded
6 raises · 1 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
2 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.