ATLASSIAN CORPORATION (TEAM)
NASDAQInformation TechnologySoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-09-04
$189.58-2.62%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQInformation TechnologySoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-09-04
Intact: The reason to own it still holds.
Atlassian aims for 26.5% cloud revenue growth this year. It plans to keep gross margin near 84.5%. The company is cutting costs and restructuring to improve. Recent earnings beats show some progress.
Atlassian is still loss-making and has volatile management. The CTO left recently. Margin and growth targets are under pressure. The stock has sold off sharply.
The price is about 7% below our fair value near $94. Analysts expect 20% revenue growth. Our fair value is 15% below the Street median.
Breaks if: cloud revenue growth falls below 20% YoY in FY26
Breaks if: gross margin falls below 80% in next 4 quarters
Breaks if: major leadership departures or restructuring delays beyond FY26
This is not a price target or investment advice.
A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.
This is a speculative growth investment, as TEAM focuses on AI and enterprise sales while managing high risks. The current thesis state reflects a recent recovery in financial performance but remains cautious due to potential volatility.
The market currently assumes a high valuation for TEAM, characterized as unjustified given its loss-making status and the fragility of its earnings. There is a significant expectations gap, indicating that investors may be anticipating stronger future performance than what is currently supported by fundamentals.
Management is on track with priorities like AI focus and cloud revenue growth, showing positive momentum in recent quarters. However, the company's earnings quality remains low, and there is a high risk associated with its financial performance.
Key factors include the potential for guidance cuts in upcoming calls, which could negatively impact sentiment. Additionally, movements in interest rates and the performance of sector leaders like SAP and CRM will be crucial for TEAM's trajectory.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Yes, our read has strengthened. The latest earnings beat supports a positive outlook. There is a renewed focus on AI and enterprise sales, which enhances growth expectations. The application software sector is experiencing a broader bid as investors reassess AI as a tailwind.
as of 2026-09-04
Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, TEAM's performance will depend on its ability to sustain growth amidst high risks and market expectations. Not investment advice.