ATLASSIAN CORPORATION (TEAM)
NASDAQInformation TechnologySoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-09-04
$189.58-2.62%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQInformation TechnologySoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · TEAM
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance recently climbed back into the top half of its industry — confirming the recovery.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 79.5% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 15.6% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 63.8 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 119 industry peers
TEAM — CTO transition
Dated 2026-03-11
Chief Technology Officer — Rajeev Rajan: Rajeev Rajan is stepping down as CTO after almost four years with the Company.
Why it matters: Progress in AI and enterprise sales can drive future growth. It shows management's focus on key areas.
Watch forManagement announces a big new AI or enterprise client win.
Also watch forNo updates or wins in AI and enterprise sales for two consecutive quarters.
Why it matters: Operating margin is key for making money. If it falls below 4.5%, there may be problems.
Worry ifOperating margin is at 4.5% or higher.
Less concerning ifThe operating margin is less than 4.5%.
Why it matters: Missing this target may show weaker demand or problems in execution.
Worry ifTotal revenue reported below $1,653 million for Q4.
Less concerning ifTotal revenue reported at or above $1,653 million for Q4.
Why it matters: If sector revenue growth drops, it could hurt Atlassian's performance. The sector is currently in a growth phase.
Worry ifSector revenue growth reported below its median for the last quarter.
Less concerning ifSector revenue growth remains above its median for the last quarter.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$320 on $10,000 · ±3.2% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $654 loss on $10,000 · 6.5% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $6,866 loss on $10,000 · 68.7% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: RPO growth shows future revenue and customer loyalty to Atlassian's products.
Supportive ifRPO growth is above 44% compared to last year.
Worry ifRPO growth is below 44% compared to last year.
Why it matters: Positive GAAP profit shows strong operations. This affects how investors feel.
Supportive ifGAAP operating margin was above 4.5%.
Worry ifGAAP operating margin is still below 4.5%.
Why it matters: Cash flow is crucial for funding growth. A drop could raise concerns about liquidity.
Worry ifCash flow from operations was below $479 million.
Less concerning ifCash flow from operations exceeds $479 million.
Why it matters: Keeping this margin shows good cost control. It also shows strong pricing power.
Supportive ifGross margin reported at or above 84.5% for the next quarter.
Worry ifGross margin reported below 83% for the next quarter.
Why it matters: Updates on AI sales show how well the company is competing in a key area.
Watch forManagement reports strong growth in AI sales during the earnings call.
Also watch forManagement says AI sales are not as strong as they thought during the earnings call.
Why it matters: Cloud revenue growth is key to Atlassian's strategy. A drop below 25.5% signals weakness.
Worry ifCloud revenue grew more than 25.5% from last year.
Less concerning ifCloud revenue grew less than 25.5% from last year.
Why it matters: Subscription ARR growth is crucial for long-term success. Slowing growth could indicate challenges.
Worry ifSubscription ARR growth reported above 23%.
Less concerning ifSubscription ARR growth reported below 23%.
Why it matters: A drop in operating margin could signal operational issues. Maintaining margin is key for growth.
Worry ifGAAP operating margin was over 12%.
Less concerning ifGAAP operating margin was under 12%.