Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
TEMPUS AI, INC. (TEM)
NASDAQHealth CareMedical - Healthcare Information ServicesSnapshot 2026-11-04
$70.43-6.85%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareMedical - Healthcare Information ServicesSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
Matching fiscal periods, usable estimates and at least one analyst are required.
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least one analyst and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for TEM yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Adjusted EBITDA near $65 million in 2026 | It plans adjusted EBITDA near $65 million. | Intact | Adjusted EBITDA falls below $5 million in FY26 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Review earningsObserved price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
TEM is a growth business working toward profitability, rather than an established earnings compounder. The thesis is in a watch state: revenue goals are on track, while profitability progress is mixed and the signal has softened from favorable to mildly favorable.
The valuation model describes TEM as cheap versus peers, with no peer premium, but model confidence is low. The negative expectations gap suggests expectations may be cautious, while the overall priced-in tag is justified and no fragility gates have fired.
Near term, revenue growth has been strong: second-quarter 2026 revenue rose 22% year over year, and management raised its full-year revenue guidance to about 25% growth. Adjusted EBITDA turned positive in the quarter, but the full-year goal remains uncertain; earnings quality is still loss-making, and recent financial performance is weak versus its industry cohort.
The multi-year thesis depends on continued revenue growth and progress toward the roughly $65 million adjusted EBITDA goal. A guidance cut or further weakening in jobs data would add pressure, while continued earnings strength and higher guidance from healthcare peers could support the sector backdrop. Recent earnings have been erratic, so execution remains important despite a low near-term miss-risk classification.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, TEM’s growth story has support from revenue momentum and a healthcare-sector tailwind, but profitability, uneven performance, and elevated risk remain key tests. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| A supporting condition in TEMPUS AI, INC.'s published investment case. The stated target is No large new debt or equity sales beyond current plans. |
| Improving |
| New large debt or equity sales causing dilution or risk |
No new large debt/equity sales reported Q3 beat, raised guidance, BMS partnership, Personalis merger; no new capital raises. Nov 4, 2026Last status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
FDA clearance and strategic partnerships support growth | The company has FDA clearance and a new partnership. | Intact | Loss of FDA clearance or key partnerships | FDA clearance maintained; BMS & Pathos partnerships active Q3 earnings beat, raised guidance, and new strategic partnerships with BMS and Pathos reinforce growth drivers. Nov 4, 2026Last status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Revenue reaches about $1.595 billion in 2026 | Tempus aims to grow revenue to about $1.6 billion in 2026. | Intact | Revenue falls below $1.26B in FY26 | Revenue: $411.537M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: ~$1.595B. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Nov 2, 2026411,537,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$-0.04 → $-0.01 · observed estimates
$1.96B → $1.98B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $-0.04 | $1,960,347,407 | 10 / 14 |
| 2026-07-25 | $-0.08 | $1,960,931,970 | 12 / 18 |
| 2026-07-26 | $-0.04 | $1,960,347,407 | 10 / 14 |
| 2026-07-27 | $-0.04 | $1,960,347,407 | 10 / 14 |
| 2026-07-28 | $-0.08 | $1,960,931,970 | 12 / 18 |
| 2026-07-29 | $-0.08 | $1,960,931,970 | 12 / 18 |
| 2026-07-30 | $-0.04 | $1,960,333,113 | 10 / 14 |
| 2026-07-31 | $-0.04 | $1,960,333,113 | 10 / 14 |
| 2026-08-01 | $-0.04 | $1,960,333,113 | 10 / 14 |
| 2026-08-02 | $-0.05 | $1,967,362,580 | 12 / 18 |
| 2026-08-03 | $-0.05 | $1,967,362,580 | 12 / 18 |
| 2026-08-04 | $-0.05 | $1,967,362,580 | 12 / 18 |
| 2026-08-05 | $-0.02 | $1,970,165,820 | 11 / 18 |
| 2026-08-06 | $-0.02 | $1,970,165,820 | 11 / 18 |
| 2026-08-08 | $-0.03 | $1,967,397,367 | 10 / 14 |
| 2026-08-09 | $-0.03 | $1,967,397,367 | 10 / 14 |
| 2026-08-10 | $-0.03 | $1,967,397,367 | 10 / 14 |
| 2026-08-12 | $-0.03 | $1,967,397,367 | 10 / 14 |
| 2026-08-13 | $-0.02 | $1,969,932,480 | 12 / 18 |
| 2026-08-14 | $-0.03 | $1,967,397,367 | 10 / 14 |
| 2026-08-15 | $-0.03 | $1,967,397,367 | 10 / 14 |
| 2026-08-16 | $-0.03 | $1,967,397,367 | 10 / 14 |
| 2026-08-17 | $-0.03 | $1,967,397,367 | 10 / 14 |
| 2026-08-18 | $-0.03 | $1,967,397,367 | 10 / 14 |
| 2026-08-19 | $-0.03 | $1,967,397,367 | 10 / 14 |
| 2026-08-20 | $0.03 | $1,970,147,158 | 10 / 14 |
| 2026-08-21 | $0.03 | $1,970,147,158 | 10 / 14 |
| 2026-08-22 | $0.03 | $1,970,147,158 | 10 / 14 |
| 2026-08-23 | $0.03 | $1,970,147,158 | 10 / 14 |
| 2026-08-24 | $0.03 | $1,970,147,158 | 10 / 14 |
| 2026-08-25 | $0.03 | $1,970,147,158 | 10 / 14 |
| 2026-08-26 | $0.03 | $1,970,147,158 | 10 / 14 |
| 2026-08-27 | $0.03 | $1,970,147,158 | 10 / 14 |
| 2026-08-28 | $0.03 | $1,970,147,158 | 10 / 14 |
| 2026-08-29 | $0.03 | $1,970,147,158 | 10 / 14 |
| 2026-08-30 | $0.03 | $1,970,147,158 | 10 / 14 |
| 2026-08-31 | $0.03 | $1,970,147,158 | 10 / 14 |
| 2026-09-01 | $0.03 | $1,970,147,158 | 10 / 14 |
| 2026-09-02 | $0.03 | $1,970,144,916 | 10 / 14 |
| 2026-09-03 | $0.02 | $1,969,997,976 | 10 / 14 |
| 2026-09-04 | $0.02 | $1,969,997,976 | 10 / 15 |
| 2026-09-05 | $0.02 | $1,969,997,976 | 10 / 15 |
| 2026-09-06 | $0.02 | $1,969,997,976 | 10 / 15 |
| 2026-09-07 | $0.02 | $1,969,997,976 | 10 / 15 |
| 2026-09-08 | $0.02 | $1,969,997,976 | 10 / 15 |
| 2026-09-09 | $0.04 | $1,967,150,788 | 10 / 15 |
| 2026-09-10 | $0.04 | $1,967,377,099 | 11 / 15 |
| 2026-09-11 | $0.04 | $1,967,377,099 | 11 / 16 |
| 2026-09-12 | $0.04 | $1,967,377,099 | 11 / 16 |
| 2026-09-13 | $0.04 | $1,967,377,099 | 11 / 16 |
| 2026-09-14 | $0.04 | $1,967,377,099 | 11 / 16 |
| 2026-09-15 | $0.04 | $1,967,377,099 | 11 / 16 |
| 2026-09-16 | $0.04 | $1,967,377,099 | 11 / 16 |
| 2026-09-17 | $0.04 | $1,967,377,099 | 11 / 16 |
| 2026-09-18 | $0.04 | $1,967,377,099 | 11 / 16 |
| 2026-09-19 | $0.04 | $1,967,377,099 | 11 / 16 |
| 2026-09-20 | $0.04 | $1,967,377,099 | 11 / 16 |
| 2026-09-21 | $0.04 | $1,967,377,099 | 11 / 16 |
| 2026-09-22 | $0.03 | $1,967,199,094 | 11 / 16 |
| 2026-09-23 | $0.03 | $1,967,199,094 | 12 / 16 |
| 2026-09-24 | $0.03 | $1,967,199,094 | 12 / 16 |
| 2026-09-25 | $0.03 | $1,967,200,190 | 12 / 17 |
| 2026-09-26 | $0.03 | $1,967,200,190 | 12 / 17 |
| 2026-09-27 | $0.03 | $1,967,200,190 | 12 / 17 |
| 2026-09-28 | $0.03 | $1,967,200,190 | 12 / 17 |
| 2026-09-29 | $0.03 | $1,967,200,190 | 12 / 17 |
| 2026-09-30 | $0.03 | $1,967,200,190 | 12 / 17 |
| 2026-10-01 | $0.03 | $1,967,200,190 | 12 / 17 |
| 2026-10-02 | $0.03 | $1,967,200,190 | 12 / 17 |
| 2026-10-03 | $0.03 | $1,966,304,951 | 12 / 17 |
| 2026-10-04 | $0.03 | $1,966,304,951 | 12 / 17 |
| 2026-10-05 | $0.03 | $1,966,304,951 | 12 / 17 |
| 2026-10-06 | $0.03 | $1,966,304,951 | 12 / 17 |
| 2026-10-07 | $0.03 | $1,966,304,951 | 12 / 17 |
| 2026-10-08 | $0.03 | $1,966,304,951 | 12 / 17 |
| 2026-10-09 | $0.03 | $1,966,304,951 | 12 / 17 |
| 2026-10-10 | $0.03 | $1,966,304,951 | 12 / 17 |
| 2026-10-11 | $0.04 | $1,966,095,007 | 12 / 17 |
| 2026-10-12 | $0.04 | $1,966,095,007 | 12 / 17 |
| 2026-10-13 | $-0.00 | $1,968,400,999 | 11 / 17 |
| 2026-10-14 | $0.01 | $1,968,400,347 | 12 / 17 |
| 2026-10-15 | $0.01 | $1,968,800,668 | 11 / 17 |
| 2026-10-16 | $0.01 | $1,968,800,668 | 11 / 17 |
| 2026-10-17 | $0.01 | $1,968,800,668 | 11 / 17 |
| 2026-10-18 | $0.01 | $1,968,800,668 | 11 / 17 |
| 2026-10-19 | $0.01 | $1,968,800,668 | 11 / 17 |
| 2026-10-20 | $0.01 | $1,968,791,144 | 11 / 17 |
| 2026-10-21 | $0.01 | $1,968,791,144 | 11 / 17 |
| 2026-10-22 | $0.01 | $1,968,791,144 | 11 / 17 |
| 2026-10-23 | $-0.03 | $1,967,555,972 | 11 / 16 |
| 2026-10-24 | $-0.03 | $1,967,555,972 | 11 / 16 |
| 2026-10-25 | $-0.03 | $1,967,555,972 | 11 / 16 |
| 2026-10-26 | $-0.03 | $1,967,555,972 | 11 / 16 |
| 2026-10-27 | $-0.03 | $1,967,555,972 | 11 / 16 |
| 2026-10-28 | $-0.03 | $1,967,554,822 | 11 / 16 |
| 2026-10-29 | $-0.03 | $1,967,554,822 | 11 / 16 |
| 2026-10-30 | $-0.03 | $1,967,554,822 | 11 / 16 |
| 2026-10-31 | $-0.03 | $1,967,554,822 | 11 / 16 |
| 2026-11-01 | $-0.03 | $1,967,554,822 | 11 / 16 |
| 2026-11-02 | $-0.03 | $1,967,554,822 | 11 / 16 |
| 2026-11-03 | $-0.02 | $1,979,990,833 | 10 / 16 |
| 2026-11-04 | $-0.01 | $1,983,228,493 | 10 / 15 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 10 Buy / Strong Buy · 10 Hold · 1 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 12 recorded
2 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 2 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
2 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.