TEMPUS AI, INC. (TEM)
NASDAQHealth CareMedical - Healthcare Information ServicesSnapshot 2026-09-04
$64.62-0.06%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareMedical - Healthcare Information ServicesSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · TEM
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -4.3% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| 27.3% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 31.5 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 21 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
TEM — litigation filed
Dated 2026-07-20
and shall not be deemed to be “filed” for the purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended, or otherwise subject to liabilities of that section, nor shall it be deemed incorporated by reference in any filing under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended (the “Securities Act”), except as expressly set forth in such filing. FORWARD-LOOKING STATEMENTS This communication contains “forward-looking statements” within the meaning of the federal securities laws. Forward-lo…
Why it matters: Finishing this offering is key for funding growth and cutting debt. It affects stability.
Supportive ifA press release will confirm the $460M offering is complete.
Worry ifNot finishing the offering or having big delays in the process.
Why it matters: Finishing this will give better financial options. It will also lower interest costs.
Supportive ifThe offering is completed and proceeds are used as planned.
Worry ifThe offering fails to close or proceeds are not used as intended.
Why it matters: Raising the revenue guidance to $1.59B-$1.60B shows strong growth. This would signal confidence in future performance.
Supportive ifManagement will raise revenue guidance during the earnings call on July 30, 2026.
Worry ifManagement keeps or lowers the revenue guidance from the current target.
Why it matters: This acquisition expands Tempus' MRD capabilities and market reach. It could drive future growth.
Supportive ifThe acquisition of Personalis closes as planned in late Q4 2026 or early 2027.
Worry ifThe acquisition faces delays or fails to close.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$318 on $10,000 · ±3.2% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $619 loss on $10,000 · 6.2% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $5,976 loss on $10,000 · 59.8% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: If sector revenue growth picks up, it could benefit TEMPUS AI's performance.
Watch forHealth Care sector revenue growth is speeding up toward 10% or more.
Also watch forSector revenue growth keeps slowing down below 10%.
Why it matters: Meeting this goal shows Tempus is making more money and controlling costs well.
Supportive ifAdjusted EBITDA reaches $65 million or more for 2026.
Worry ifAdjusted EBITDA falls short of $65 million for 2026.
Why it matters: The earnings report will show important details about revenue and profit trends. It will affect how investors feel.
Watch forEarnings report shows revenue growth exceeding 25% year over year.
Also watch forEarnings report shows revenue growth below 15% year over year.
Why it matters: Hitting this target shows Tempus is getting closer to making money. It shows better operations.
Supportive ifQ3 Adjusted EBITDA of $15 million or more.
Worry ifQ3 Adjusted EBITDA is still negative. It is below $10 million.
Why it matters: Litigation might delay or stop the Personalis acquisition. This could hurt growth plans.
Worry ifLitigation ends well, so the acquisition can move forward.
Less concerning ifLawsuits can cause big delays. They might even stop the acquisition.
Why it matters: New FDA approvals can boost growth and support Tempus' products in precision medicine.
Supportive ifTempus gets FDA approval for more oncology products or tests.
Worry ifNo new FDA approvals are granted for oncology products in the next six months.
Why it matters: Litigation could delay or block the acquisition. This would impact Tempus' growth strategy.
Worry ifCourt cases end well, letting the acquisition move forward.
Less concerning ifCourt cases cause delays or stop the acquisition.
Why it matters: New FDA approvals could boost Tempus' market position in the MRD space.
Supportive ifFDA approves more MRD tests or uses.
Worry ifNo new FDA approvals for MRD tests in the coming months.
Why it matters: Maintaining strong growth is key for investor confidence. It shows the business is on track.
Supportive ifQ3 revenue growth meets or exceeds 25% year-over-year.
Worry ifQ3 revenue growth falls below 20% year-over-year.