Target Corporation (TGT)
NYSEConsumer StaplesDiscount StoresSnapshot 2026-07-08
$127.52+1.13%
Close 2026-07-07 · 1-day change
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Price, fair value, and the multiples that frame it on the same time axis. Scroll over the price chart to zoom.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots inline.
A consensus fair price across 14 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $127.52. As of 2026-07-08. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
Around the middle on quality vs scored peers
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $128 TGT trades at 16× p/e, below its 19× p/e peer median, but our blended $126 fair value is roughly in line with the price. It's a high-confidence read. Analysts target $114–$162. Not investment advice.
$114.00 – $162.00 (median $133.50) · 24 analysts · as of 2026-06-26
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
No fragility gates fired. Regime (Mania) does not concentrate fragility.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
These describe the expectations embedded in the price, not a forecast of the move. Reverse-DCF base: $6.95/sh owner earnings.
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Around its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
Score 100 = cheapest in the cohort, 0 = richest. Bars are filled left-to-right based on the peer-relative score (or PEG/self-history where shown).
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
Each method's implied share price per horizon. Provisional rows use a projected (historical-CAGR) growth input rather than analyst or management guidance.
| Method | Horizon | Est. price | Multiple | Per-share input | EPS source | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| analyst target | 12M | $132.00 | — | — | Analyst | high |
| dcf fcfe | 12M | $271.89 | — | — | Hist. CAGR | high |
| dcf fcff | 12M | $291.66 | — | — | Hist. CAGR | high |
| ddm gordon | 12M | $72.76 | — | — | TTM | high |
| graham number | 12M | $80.36 | — | — | TTM | high |
| Mgmt guidance | 12M | $154.02 | 19.3 | 8.00 | Mgmt | high |
| Peer EV/EBITDA | 12M | $252.10 | 16.9 | 16.44 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/FCF | 12M | $137.83 | 20.1 | 6.86 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/E | 12M | $153.63 | 19.3 | 7.98 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/S | 12M | $404.54 | 1.7 | 239.16 | TTM | high |
| PEG | 12M | $193.44 | 24.2 | 7.98 | TTM | high |
| residual income | 12M | $54.29 | — | — | TTM | high |
| Own P/E history | 12M | $130.45 | 16.3 | 7.98 | TTM | high |
| triangulated | 12M | $160.64 | 19.3 | 8.34 | Triangulated | high |
| Mgmt guidance | 3Y | $190.74 | 19.3 | 9.91 | Mgmt(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/FCF | 3Y | $209.62 | 20.1 | 10.43 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/E | 3Y | $189.51 | 19.3 | 9.84 | Analyst | medium |
| Peer P/S | 3Y | $426.96 | 1.7 | 252.41 | Analyst | medium |
| PEG | 3Y | $238.61 | 24.2 | 9.84 | Analyst | medium |
| Own P/E history | 3Y | $160.91 | 16.3 | 9.84 | Analyst | medium |
| Mgmt guidance | 5Y | $219.97 | 19.3 | 11.43 | Mgmt(prov.) | high |
| Peer P/FCF | 5Y | $277.23 | 20.1 | 13.79 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | high |
| Peer P/E | 5Y | $196.29 | 19.3 | 10.20 | Analyst | high |
| Peer P/S | 5Y | $442.24 | 1.7 | 261.45 | Analyst | high |
| PEG | 5Y | $247.15 | 24.2 | 10.20 | Analyst | high |
| Own P/E history | 5Y | $166.67 | 16.3 | 10.20 | Analyst | high |
A “consensus-then vs. actual-now” overlay is on the way — what our valuation estimate said on a past date versus where the price actually landed.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.