Target Corporation (TGT)
NYSEConsumer StaplesDiscount StoresSnapshot 2026-09-04
$164.44+0.26%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer StaplesDiscount StoresSnapshot 2026-09-04
Warn: Primary pillar under pressure — EPS of $8.0 to $8.5 per share in 2026: EPS $10.4 vs $8.0-$8.5 target.
Target grows sales about 4% a year and earns $8.0 per share in 2026. It keeps paying a stable dividend of $1.14 per share. New partnerships and store openings support sales growth. Profit margins and execution are improving.
Sales growth may slow due to ongoing boycotts and product recalls. Profit margins could weaken if costs rise. Dividend stability depends on cash flow staying strong. Competition from Amazon and others may pressure growth.
The price is about 1% above our fair value near $126, reflecting roughly 2% revenue growth. Our fair value is slightly below the Street median, suggesting moderate upside if execution improves.
Breaks if: No new significant partnerships or marketplace growth in next 4 quarters
Breaks if: Dividend per share falls below $1.10
EPS falls below $7.5 in FY26
This is not a price target or investment advice.
A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.
This investment represents a durable compounder with a focus on sustainable growth. The current thesis is stable, supported by strong recent financial performance and management's commitment to growth, despite some volatility in execution.
The market appears to have a neutral view on TGT's valuation, with a slight premium compared to peers. There is a small expectations gap, suggesting that the market is not overly optimistic or pessimistic about TGT's future performance.
Management is on track to achieve its net sales growth target of around 5% for 2026, with recent results showing strong year-over-year growth. Operating income margins are mixed, with recent boosts from tariff refunds, indicating potential variability in future performance.
The thesis hinges on management's ability to maintain guidance and deliver consistent performance. Key factors include inflation trends and the performance of sector peers like WMT and COST, which could influence TGT's momentum.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Mixed, the news cuts both ways. Target raised its full-year sales growth guidance from 4% to 5%. This suggests stronger consumer demand and stabilizing sales trends. However, the sector backdrop remains a drag, which could challenge growth expectations.
as of 2026-09-04
Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Breaks if: YoY revenue growth falls below 2% in FY26
Overall, TGT's fundamentals show promise, but the company must navigate sector challenges and maintain credibility with investors. Not investment advice.