Expectations trend
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-01-31 · fmp
Target Corporation (TGT)
NYSEConsumer StaplesDiscount StoresSnapshot 2026-11-04
$157.95-3.16%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer StaplesDiscount StoresSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
9.64 → 9.64 EPS · FY ending Jan 31, 2028 · 25 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 25 to 25; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for TGT yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Expand marketplace with exclusive partnerships | A supporting condition in Target Corporation's published investment case. The stated target is Sustain growth in marketplace offerings. | Intact | No new significant partnerships or marketplace growth in next 4 quarters | Qualitative: Marketplace growth evidenced by $3B home brand reinvention and Cat & Jack scale Target reinvented its $3B home brand and Cat & Jack hit $3B scale, supporting marketplace growth and exclusive partnerships. Nov 4, 2026Last status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-01-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Nov 18, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a large retailer with a recovering, execution-led thesis rather than a turnaround based only on future promises. The thesis is intact, recent performance is strong, and the risk label has moved from moderate to low.
Valuation is slightly above peers, while the expectations gap is small and the evidence describes pricing as justified. That suggests the market already reflects much of the improved operating picture, without a large mismatch between expectations and fundamentals.
Near term, results have been strong: second-quarter net sales grew 5.3% year over year, and operating income nearly doubled, with tariff refunds contributing to the margin gain. Management raised its full-year sales growth guidance to around 5%, but the roughly 6% margin goal is less firmly supported because refunds boosted second-quarter margin and the full-year target includes an assumed refund contribution.
The multi-year view depends on management sustaining sales growth and profitable merchandising execution without needing further guidance changes. Near term, a reversal of the recent guidance increase would damage credibility, while continued strength at major retail peers could support the sector backdrop; weakening job growth could raise recession concerns.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, TGT’s thesis rests on turning recent sales and profit strength into durable growth, with valuation already reflecting a broadly justified outlook. The main uncertainty is whether margin gains persist as temporary tariff refunds fade. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Maintain dividend per share at $1.14 | It keeps paying a stable dividend of $1.14 per share. | Intact | Dividend per share falls below $1.10 | Dividend per share: $1.14 per share FY2026-Q4; GAAP. Published target: Dividend per share = $1.14. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q4. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Aug 28, 20261.14 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 3 of 8 supplied quarters. Management reported: “• An updated GAAP and Adjusted EPS guidance range of $9.90 to $10.90, which includes second quarter tariff refund benefits of approximately $1.65.” “• GAAP and Adjusted EPS near the high end of the prior guidance range of $7.50 to $8.50.” Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
EPS of $8.0 to $8.5 per share in 2026 | Target grows sales about 4% a year and earns $8.0 per share in 2026. | Under Pressure | EPS falls below $7.5 in FY26 | Diluted EPS: $4.11 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: EPS between $8.0 and $8.5. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 28, 20264.11 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 3 of 8 supplied quarters. Management reported: “• An updated GAAP and Adjusted EPS guidance range of $9.90 to $10.90, which includes second quarter tariff refund benefits of approximately $1.65.” “• GAAP and Adjusted EPS near the high end of the prior guidance range of $7.50 to $8.50.” Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Annual revenue growth of at least 4% | A primary condition in Target Corporation's published investment case. The stated target is >=4% YoY. | Under Pressure | YoY revenue growth falls below 2% in FY26 | Revenue growth: 5.27% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=4% YoY. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 28, 20265.267542 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$8.97 → $9.64 · observed estimates
$112.21B → $113.86B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $8.97 | $112,207,809,069 | 24 / 27 |
| 2026-07-25 | $8.97 | $112,207,809,069 | 24 / 27 |
| 2026-07-26 | $8.98 | $112,241,037,640 | 24 / 27 |
| 2026-07-27 | $8.98 | $112,241,037,640 | 24 / 27 |
| 2026-07-28 | $8.99 | $112,311,809,069 | 24 / 27 |
| 2026-07-29 | $8.99 | $112,311,809,069 | 24 / 27 |
| 2026-07-30 | $8.99 | $112,311,809,069 | 24 / 27 |
| 2026-07-31 | $9.02 | $112,348,294,783 | 24 / 28 |
| 2026-08-01 | $9.02 | $112,348,294,783 | 24 / 28 |
| 2026-08-02 | $9.02 | $112,348,294,783 | 24 / 28 |
| 2026-08-03 | $9.02 | $112,348,294,783 | 24 / 28 |
| 2026-08-04 | $9.02 | $112,371,929,540 | 24 / 28 |
| 2026-08-05 | $9.02 | $112,371,929,540 | 24 / 28 |
| 2026-08-06 | $8.96 | $112,152,197,190 | 36 / 36 |
| 2026-08-08 | $9.02 | $112,371,929,540 | 24 / 28 |
| 2026-08-09 | $8.96 | $112,155,749,370 | 36 / 36 |
| 2026-08-10 | $8.96 | $112,155,749,370 | 36 / 36 |
| 2026-08-12 | $9.00 | $112,222,380,750 | 36 / 36 |
| 2026-08-13 | $9.02 | $112,371,929,540 | 24 / 28 |
| 2026-08-14 | $9.02 | $112,371,929,540 | 24 / 28 |
| 2026-08-15 | $9.02 | $112,371,929,540 | 24 / 28 |
| 2026-08-16 | $9.02 | $112,371,929,540 | 24 / 28 |
| 2026-08-17 | $9.02 | $112,371,929,540 | 24 / 28 |
| 2026-08-18 | $9.02 | $112,371,929,540 | 24 / 28 |
| 2026-08-19 | $9.02 | $112,371,929,540 | 24 / 28 |
| 2026-08-20 | $9.50 | $113,186,997,460 | 26 / 27 |
| 2026-08-21 | $9.54 | $113,273,415,293 | 27 / 28 |
| 2026-08-22 | $9.55 | $113,407,897,982 | 27 / 28 |
| 2026-08-23 | $9.55 | $113,407,897,982 | 26 / 28 |
| 2026-08-24 | $9.55 | $113,407,897,982 | 26 / 28 |
| 2026-08-25 | $9.57 | $113,407,897,982 | 26 / 28 |
| 2026-08-26 | $9.57 | $113,407,897,982 | 26 / 28 |
| 2026-08-27 | $9.57 | $113,407,897,982 | 26 / 28 |
| 2026-08-28 | $9.57 | $113,407,897,982 | 26 / 28 |
| 2026-08-29 | $9.59 | $113,537,120,904 | 26 / 28 |
| 2026-08-30 | $9.59 | $113,628,089,313 | 26 / 28 |
| 2026-08-31 | $9.59 | $113,628,089,313 | 26 / 28 |
| 2026-09-01 | $9.59 | $113,628,089,313 | 26 / 28 |
| 2026-09-02 | $9.59 | $113,628,089,313 | 26 / 28 |
| 2026-09-03 | $9.59 | $113,628,089,313 | 26 / 28 |
| 2026-09-04 | $9.59 | $113,628,089,313 | 26 / 28 |
| 2026-09-05 | $9.59 | $113,628,071,338 | 26 / 28 |
| 2026-09-06 | $9.59 | $113,628,071,338 | 26 / 28 |
| 2026-09-07 | $9.59 | $113,628,071,338 | 26 / 28 |
| 2026-09-08 | $9.59 | $113,628,071,338 | 26 / 28 |
| 2026-09-09 | $9.59 | $113,628,071,338 | 26 / 28 |
| 2026-09-10 | $9.59 | $113,628,071,338 | 26 / 28 |
| 2026-09-11 | $9.59 | $113,628,071,338 | 26 / 28 |
| 2026-09-12 | $9.59 | $113,628,071,338 | 26 / 28 |
| 2026-09-13 | $9.59 | $113,628,071,338 | 26 / 28 |
| 2026-09-14 | $9.59 | $113,628,071,338 | 26 / 28 |
| 2026-09-15 | $9.59 | $113,628,071,338 | 26 / 28 |
| 2026-09-16 | $9.59 | $113,628,071,338 | 26 / 28 |
| 2026-09-17 | $9.59 | $113,628,071,338 | 26 / 28 |
| 2026-09-18 | $9.59 | $113,628,071,338 | 26 / 28 |
| 2026-09-19 | $9.59 | $113,628,071,338 | 26 / 28 |
| 2026-09-20 | $9.59 | $113,628,071,338 | 26 / 27 |
| 2026-09-21 | $9.59 | $113,628,071,338 | 26 / 27 |
| 2026-09-22 | $9.59 | $113,628,071,338 | 26 / 27 |
| 2026-09-23 | $9.59 | $113,628,071,338 | 26 / 27 |
| 2026-09-24 | $9.59 | $113,628,071,338 | 26 / 27 |
| 2026-09-25 | $9.60 | $113,667,779,671 | 26 / 27 |
| 2026-09-26 | $9.60 | $113,667,779,671 | 26 / 27 |
| 2026-09-27 | $9.60 | $113,667,779,671 | 26 / 27 |
| 2026-09-28 | $9.60 | $113,667,779,671 | 26 / 27 |
| 2026-09-29 | $9.60 | $113,667,779,671 | 26 / 27 |
| 2026-09-30 | $9.60 | $113,667,779,671 | 26 / 27 |
| 2026-10-01 | $9.64 | $113,854,305,015 | 26 / 27 |
| 2026-10-02 | $9.64 | $113,854,305,015 | 25 / 27 |
| 2026-10-03 | $9.64 | $113,854,305,015 | 25 / 27 |
| 2026-10-04 | $9.64 | $113,854,305,015 | 25 / 27 |
| 2026-10-05 | $9.64 | $113,854,305,015 | 25 / 27 |
| 2026-10-06 | $9.64 | $113,787,332,814 | 25 / 27 |
| 2026-10-07 | $9.64 | $113,787,332,814 | 25 / 27 |
| 2026-10-08 | $9.64 | $113,787,332,814 | 25 / 27 |
| 2026-10-09 | $9.64 | $113,787,332,814 | 25 / 27 |
| 2026-10-10 | $9.64 | $113,787,332,814 | 25 / 27 |
| 2026-10-11 | $9.64 | $113,787,332,814 | 25 / 27 |
| 2026-10-12 | $9.64 | $113,787,332,814 | 25 / 27 |
| 2026-10-13 | $9.64 | $113,787,332,814 | 25 / 27 |
| 2026-10-14 | $9.64 | $113,787,332,814 | 25 / 27 |
| 2026-10-15 | $9.64 | $113,787,332,814 | 25 / 27 |
| 2026-10-16 | $9.64 | $113,787,332,814 | 25 / 27 |
| 2026-10-17 | $9.64 | $113,787,332,814 | 25 / 27 |
| 2026-10-18 | $9.64 | $113,787,332,814 | 25 / 27 |
| 2026-10-19 | $9.64 | $113,787,332,814 | 25 / 27 |
| 2026-10-20 | $9.64 | $113,787,332,814 | 25 / 27 |
| 2026-10-21 | $9.64 | $113,787,332,814 | 25 / 27 |
| 2026-10-22 | $9.64 | $113,787,332,814 | 25 / 27 |
| 2026-10-23 | $9.64 | $113,787,332,814 | 25 / 27 |
| 2026-10-24 | $9.64 | $113,787,332,814 | 25 / 27 |
| 2026-10-25 | $9.64 | $113,787,332,814 | 25 / 27 |
| 2026-10-26 | $9.64 | $113,787,332,814 | 25 / 27 |
| 2026-10-27 | $9.64 | $113,787,332,814 | 25 / 27 |
| 2026-10-28 | $9.64 | $113,787,332,814 | 25 / 27 |
| 2026-10-29 | $9.64 | $113,787,332,814 | 25 / 27 |
| 2026-10-30 | $9.64 | $113,787,332,814 | 25 / 27 |
| 2026-10-31 | $9.64 | $113,787,332,814 | 25 / 27 |
| 2026-11-01 | $9.64 | $113,787,332,814 | 25 / 27 |
| 2026-11-02 | $9.64 | $113,787,332,814 | 25 / 27 |
| 2026-11-03 | $9.64 | $113,840,052,814 | 25 / 27 |
| 2026-11-04 | $9.64 | $113,863,932,814 | 25 / 27 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 13 Buy / Strong Buy · 21 Hold · 4 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 1 recorded
0 raises · 1 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.