Target Corporation (TGT)
NYSEConsumer StaplesDiscount StoresSnapshot 2026-11-04
$163.10+5.63%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer StaplesDiscount StoresSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · TGT
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 14.8% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 8.8% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 6.0 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 2 industry peers
TGT — credit agreement
Dated 2026-08-14
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement . On August 14, 2026, Target Corporation (“Target”) entered into a Five-Year Credit Agreement with certain lenders, Bank of America, N.A., as administrative agent, Citibank, N.A., and Wells Fargo Bank, National Association, as co-syndication agents, and JPMorgan Chase Bank, N.A., and U.S. Bank National Association, as co-documentation agents, for a $4.0 billion unsecured revolving credit facility (the “Credit Agreement”). Target may increase the cred…
Why it matters: Inventory rose 2.9% year over year in Q2, below sales growth of 5.3%. A reversal could point to slower demand or more stock to clear.
Worry ifQ3 inventory grows more than 5% year over year while net sales growth is below 5%.
Less concerning ifQ3 inventory growth stays below net sales growth, or inventory falls year over year.
Why it matters: Q2 profit included a large tariff refund. The next report can show whether margin gains also come from the business itself.
Watch forQ3 operating margin, without any tariff refund, is at least 0.5 points above the rate a year ago.
Also watch forQ3 operating margin, without any tariff refund, is no higher than the rate a year ago.
Why it matters: These non-merchandise sales grew more than 20% in Q2. Continued growth can help support sales and margins.
Supportive ifQ3 non-merchandise sales grow at least 15% year over year.
Worry ifQ3 non-merchandise sales growth falls below 5% year over year.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$106 on $10,000 · ±1.1% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $307 loss on $10,000 · 3.1% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,288 loss on $10,000 · 12.9% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.