Target Corporation (TGT)
NYSEConsumer StaplesDiscount StoresSnapshot 2026-09-04
$164.44+0.26%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer StaplesDiscount StoresSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · TGT
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 19.5% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 7.5% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 12.0 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 5 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
TGT — credit agreement
Dated 2026-08-14
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement . On August 14, 2026, Target Corporation (“Target”) entered into a Five-Year Credit Agreement with certain lenders, Bank of America, N.A., as administrative agent, Citibank, N.A., and Wells Fargo Bank, National Association, as co-syndication agents, and JPMorgan Chase Bank, N.A., and U.S. Bank National Association, as co-documentation agents, for a $4.0 billion unsecured revolving credit facility (the “Credit Agreement”). Target may increase the cred…
Why it matters: Hitting this target shows Target can keep strong sales. It also shows management believes in their growth plan.
Supportive ifQ3 net sales growth reported at or above 5%.
Worry ifQ3 net sales growth reported below 4%.
Why it matters: If sales drop is low, it matches what management expects. This may help keep the stock stable.
Supportive ifSales decline of 1% or less year over year in Q2.
Worry ifSales decline exceeds 3% year over year in Q2.
Why it matters: Consumer spending trends will affect Target's sales and growth in a tough market.
Watch forRetail sales report shows growth in consumer spending above 2% year over year.
Also watch forRetail sales report shows decline in consumer spending below 0% year over year.
Why it matters: Dropping below this level could show problems with costs and profits.
Worry ifThe operating income margin is 6% or more.
Less concerning ifThe operating income margin is less than 6%.
Why it matters: Sales growth above 4% shows strong demand. It means the strategy is working well.
Supportive ifNet sales growth was above 4% for Q2. This shows strong performance.
Worry ifNet sales growth reported below 4%, suggesting a slowdown in demand.
Why it matters: Meeting or beating EPS guidance shows strong performance. It helps growth plans for 2026.
Supportive ifQ2 EPS reported at or above $1.71, confirming strong financial health.
Worry ifQ2 EPS was below $1.71. This shows possible weakness in performance.
Why it matters: Steady earnings beats would help build a positive outlook and investor trust.
Supportive ifAugust earnings report shows earnings beat expectations for the quarter.
Worry ifAugust earnings report does not meet expectations.
Why it matters: Higher digital sales growth shows good adaptation. It reflects changing shopping habits.
Supportive ifDigital sales growth was above 8.9%. This confirms the digital strategy is effective.
Worry ifDigital sales grew less than 8.9%. This may mean problems with digital engagement.
Why it matters: Keeping or raising the dividend shows financial health and value for shareholders.
Supportive ifDividend per share remains at $1.14 or higher.
Worry ifDividend per share is cut below $1.14.
Why it matters: Keeping this guidance shows confidence in earnings. Changes might mean problems.
Supportive ifManagement confirms EPS guidance remains at $7.50 to $8.50.
Worry ifEPS guidance is lowered below $7.50.
Why it matters: Keeping this guidance shows confidence in the company’s growth plan.
Supportive ifManagement confirms net sales growth guidance around 5% for the full year.
Worry ifManagement lowers net sales growth guidance to below 5% for the full year.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$117 on $10,000 · ±1.2% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $307 loss on $10,000 · 3.1% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,335 loss on $10,000 · 13.4% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.