Target Hospitality Corp. (TH)
NASDAQIndustrialsSpecialty Business ServicesSnapshot 2026-09-04
$19.52+5.29%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQIndustrialsSpecialty Business ServicesSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · TH
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 34.7% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 74.3% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 39.5 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 21 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
TH — government funding
Dated 2026-08-26
Other Events. On August 19, 2026, the Company entered into a new multi-year lease and services agreement (the “Contract”) to provide comprehensive facility and hospitality services to assist the development of a data center in the Pecos region of West Texas (the “Community”). The Community will be designed to accommodate approximately 1,100 individuals, with initial occupancy in August 2026 and full completion of the Community anticipated in September 2026. The Contract has an anticipated fou…
Why it matters: New contracts would support Target's growth plan and help them reach more customers in key areas.
Supportive ifThey will announce new contracts worth over $300 million by December 2026.
Worry ifFailure to secure new contracts or awards below $200 million by year-end.
Why it matters: This project is expected to make $750 million. Finishing it shows good progress on growth.
Supportive ifThe AI Infrastructure Community will finish on time by mid-2027.
Worry ifThere may be delays or big cost overruns in the project.
Why it matters: Meeting this target would show that the WHS segment is running well and making money.
Supportive ifAdjusted EBITDA for Q3 is $20 million or more. This shows they are managing costs well.
Worry ifAdjusted EBITDA is below $15 million. This may mean they have some operational challenges.
Why it matters: Capex updates will show how the company is managing its investments in 2026.
Watch forCapex guidance is raised to over $480M. This shows plans for strong growth.
Also watch forCapex guidance is lowered to under $460M. This suggests caution in spending.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$224 on $10,000 · ±2.2% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $407 loss on $10,000 · 4.1% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,195 loss on $10,000 · 31.9% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Finishing on time will show Target can work well and meet customer needs.
Watch forPecos Community is done on time, which helps their credibility.
Also watch forIf the project is not done by September 2026, it raises concerns about management.
Why it matters: Getting $75-$85M in adjusted EBITDA is key for financial health. It shows how well the company runs.
Supportive ifAdjusted EBITDA for Q2 meets or exceeds $75M.
Worry ifAdjusted EBITDA for Q2 is below $70M. This points to problems in operations.
Why it matters: If revenue growth in the industrial sector speeds up, it could benefit Target's performance.
Supportive ifSector revenue growth is speeding up again. It is moving back toward highs above 7%.
Worry ifSector revenue growth is slowing down. It is now below 5%.
Why it matters: This facility helps with cash flow and lowers costs. This supports growth plans.
Supportive ifCapital from the new credit facility will go into growth projects.
Worry ifDebt levels may rise without more revenue or better operations.
Why it matters: Hitting this target would show strong profits from recent contracts.
Supportive ifAdjusted EBITDA hits or goes over $85 million for full-year 2026.
Worry ifAdjusted EBITDA is below $85 million for the full year 2026.
Why it matters: Updates on capex will show if Target Hospitality is on track with its $460-$480M guidance.
Watch forCapex spending was over $470M. This shows strong investment in growth.
Also watch forCapex spending was below $450M. This suggests less investment and possible growth issues.
Why it matters: This would indicate strong growth momentum and progress toward the full-year revenue target of $370M to $380M.
Supportive ifQ2 2026 revenue reported at or above $90 million.
Worry ifQ2 2026 revenue falls below $85 million.
Why it matters: Capex of $460-$480M is important for growth. Changes can signal strategic shifts.
Watch forManagement says spending plans are still between $460-$480M.
Also watch forManagement lowers spending plans to below $460M. This shows less investment.
Why it matters: Steady revenue growth shows strong demand for Target's services. It also shows good execution.
Supportive ifQ3 revenue growth is over 39% compared to last year. This shows strong contract execution.
Worry ifQ3 revenue growth falls below 20% year over year, suggesting demand weakness.
Why it matters: New contracts show ongoing demand. They also show growth potential in Workforce Hospitality Solutions.
Supportive ifNew multi-year contracts announced. They total over $250 million in revenue.
Worry ifNo new multi-year contracts for two quarters. This shows a slowdown in demand.
Why it matters: Strong EBITDA growth shows better profits. It also shows better efficiency in the WHS segment.
Supportive ifAdjusted EBITDA growth is over 420% compared to last year. This shows strong operational leverage.
Worry ifAdjusted EBITDA growth is less than 100% from last year. This shows there may be problems.