Tenet Health (THC)
NYSEHealth CareMedical - Care FacilitiesSnapshot 2026-09-04
$265.05+0.59%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEHealth CareMedical - Care FacilitiesSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · THC
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -40.0% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 2.4% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 42.4 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 26 industry peers
THC — CIO transition
Dated 2026-04-10
Executive Vice President and Chief Information Officer — Paola Arbour: Ms. Arbour is retiring from her executive role but will remain employed in a non-executive capacity for transition support.
Why it matters: Falling below this level may show weak demand or problems in operations.
Worry ifQ3 net operating revenues were less than $5.5 billion.
Less concerning ifQ3 net operating revenues were more than $5.5 billion.
Why it matters: Updates on Conifer's growth will show how well Tenet is managing this key asset.
Watch forManagement talks about new plans for growth at Conifer Health Solutions.
Also watch forNo new updates or plans are shared. This may show a lack of progress.
Why it matters: Higher net income shows better financial health. This could make investors more positive.
Supportive ifNet income reported higher than the previous quarter.
Worry ifNet income reported lower than the previous quarter.
Why it matters: Management's views on revenue growth will show the company's health and market position.
Watch forManagement is confident in revenue growth during the Q2 earnings call.
Also watch forManagement has concerns about revenue growth during the Q2 earnings call.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$186 on $10,000 · ±1.9% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $381 loss on $10,000 · 3.8% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,408 loss on $10,000 · 34.1% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: If sector growth slows, it may impact Tenet's performance. This could signal broader challenges.
Worry ifSector revenue growth falls below its median.
Less concerning ifSector revenue growth remains above its median.
Why it matters: Slower growth may show problems in the Ambulatory segment.
Worry ifNet patient service revenues growth is below 3%.
Less concerning ifNet patient service revenues growth is 3% or more.
Why it matters: A drop below 10% would signal a slowdown in Tenet's revenue growth. This could impact investor confidence.
Worry ifQ2 revenue growth reported below 10% year over year.
Less concerning ifQ2 revenue growth remains at or above 10% year over year.
Why it matters: A lower margin means Tenet is having trouble making money as costs rise.
Worry ifIn Q3 2026, adjusted EBITDA margin was below 22.1%.
Less concerning ifIn Q3 2026, adjusted EBITDA margin was above 22.4%.
Why it matters: Growth in operating income is key for better profits. Strong results show good cost management.
Supportive ifOperating income rises by more than 10% from Q1 2026.
Worry ifOperating income growth is less than 5% compared to Q1 2026.
Why it matters: A lower outlook means Tenet is having trouble making cash.
Worry ifFree cash flow outlook reported below $2.725 billion.
Less concerning ifFree cash flow outlook reported above $3.025 billion.
Why it matters: Falling below this amount shows less profit. This may make investors less confident.
Worry ifNet income to common shareholders is below $2.605 billion for FY 2026.
Less concerning ifNet income to common shareholders is at or above $2.605 billion for FY 2026.
Why it matters: More share buybacks can show that management believes in the company's value.
Supportive ifTenet repurchases more than $500 million of shares in Q3.
Worry ifNo big share buybacks happen in Q3. This may show cash flow worries.
Why it matters: Growth in revenue from the same facility is key for Tenet. It shows demand and efficiency.
Supportive ifRevenue growth from the same facility is over 6% year over year.
Worry ifRevenue growth from the same facility is below 3% year over year.
Why it matters: A drop in net income shows less profit. This could worry investors.
Worry ifNet income for common shareholders in Q3 is below $700 million.
Less concerning ifNet income for common shareholders is above $800 million.
Why it matters: Weak same-store revenue growth raises worries about the company’s growth.
Worry ifSame-store revenue growth in Q3 drops below 5%.
Less concerning ifSame-store revenue growth in Q3 exceeds 6%.
Why it matters: Lower free cash flow shows problems with cash generation and managing funds.
Worry ifQ3 free cash flow prints below $700 million.
Less concerning ifFree cash flow in Q3 exceeds $800 million.