Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
First Financial Corp/IN (THFF)
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-11-04
$79.22+2.01%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
8.22 → 8.31 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 3 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 2 to 3; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for THFF yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Complete and integrate CedarStone Financial acquisition | The company completed the CedarStone acquisition to expand its market. | Intact | Acquisition integration delays or failures reported | Qualitative condition This condition has no defined numerical measure. Nov 4, 2026Last status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
THFF is a regional banking business with a steady-growth profile, rather than a turnaround or high-growth story. Its long-term thesis is intact, with recent financial performance strong, though management execution is rated volatile and the merger is not yet complete.
Valuation is tagged as justified, with a modest premium versus peers and an expectations gap that points to somewhat limited room for unmet expectations. The evidence shows low valuation fragility, but it does not establish that the market is assuming a particular merger outcome.
Year over year, loans and deposits grew, and the efficiency ratio improved even as quarterly expenses rose. Third-quarter results were strong and momentum measures improved, but average loans and deposits softened slightly from the prior quarter; the near-term miss risk is rated quiet, with a 21% estimated probability.
The multi-year view depends in part on completing the First Illinois merger, which is expected in the first quarter of 2027 but remains pending. Near term, a guidance cut or rate cuts from the current 3.88% could weigh on the business, while continued earnings strength across financial-sector bellwethers could support sector momentum.
For the next 1 to 3 years, THFF’s thesis has support from strong recent performance and year-over-year balance-sheet growth, while merger delivery, management execution, and interest-rate conditions remain key uncertainties. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| Profitability is stable with a low PE of 11.33 and a dividend of $0.56 per share. |
| Intact |
| Dividend cut below $0.56 per share |
Required source inputs unavailable Cannot calculate Dividend per share from the available matching source inputs. Missing inputs are not treated as zero. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Achieve EPS of at least $6.68 in fiscal year 2026 | A primary condition in First Financial Corp/IN's published investment case. The stated target is >=6.68 USD per share. | Intact | EPS falls below $6.00 in 2026 fiscal year | Diluted EPS: $2.31 per share FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >=6.68 USD per share. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Oct 27, 20262.31 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$7.55 → $8.31 · observed estimates
$0.30B → $0.34B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $7.55 | $303,946,500 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-07-25 | $7.55 | $303,946,500 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-07-26 | $7.55 | $303,946,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-27 | $7.55 | $303,946,500 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-07-28 | $7.55 | $303,946,500 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-07-29 | $7.55 | $303,946,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-30 | $7.55 | $303,946,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-31 | $7.67 | $304,804,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-01 | $7.67 | $304,804,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-02 | $7.75 | $306,804,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-03 | $7.67 | $304,804,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-04 | $7.67 | $304,804,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-05 | $7.67 | $304,804,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-06 | $7.75 | $306,804,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-08 | $7.75 | $306,804,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-09 | $7.75 | $306,804,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-10 | $7.75 | $306,804,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-12 | $7.75 | $306,804,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-13 | $7.75 | $306,804,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-14 | $7.75 | $306,804,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-15 | $7.75 | $306,804,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-16 | $7.75 | $306,804,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-17 | $7.75 | $306,804,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-18 | $7.75 | $306,804,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-19 | $7.75 | $306,804,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-20 | $7.82 | $306,804,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-21 | $7.82 | $306,804,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-22 | $7.82 | $306,804,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-23 | $7.82 | $306,804,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-24 | $7.82 | $306,804,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-25 | $7.82 | $306,804,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-26 | $7.82 | $306,804,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-27 | $7.82 | $306,804,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-28 | $7.82 | $306,804,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-29 | $8.09 | $341,849,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-30 | $8.09 | $341,849,500 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-08-31 | $8.09 | $341,849,500 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-09-01 | $8.09 | $341,849,500 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-09-02 | $8.09 | $341,849,500 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-09-03 | $8.09 | $341,849,500 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-09-04 | $8.09 | $341,849,500 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-09-05 | $8.22 | $341,849,500 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-09-06 | $8.22 | $341,849,500 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-09-07 | $8.22 | $341,849,500 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-09-08 | $8.22 | $341,849,500 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-09-09 | $8.22 | $341,849,500 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-09-10 | $8.22 | $341,849,500 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-09-11 | $8.22 | $341,849,500 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-09-12 | $8.22 | $341,849,500 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-09-13 | $8.22 | $341,849,500 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-09-14 | $8.22 | $341,849,500 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-09-15 | $8.22 | $341,849,500 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-09-16 | $8.22 | $341,849,500 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-09-17 | $8.22 | $341,849,500 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-09-18 | $8.22 | $341,849,500 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-09-19 | $8.22 | $341,849,500 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-09-20 | $8.22 | $341,849,500 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-09-21 | $8.22 | $341,849,500 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-09-22 | $8.22 | $341,849,500 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-09-23 | $8.22 | $341,849,500 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-09-24 | $8.22 | $341,849,500 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-09-25 | $8.22 | $341,849,500 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-09-26 | $8.22 | $341,849,500 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-09-27 | $8.22 | $341,849,500 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-09-28 | $8.22 | $341,849,500 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-09-29 | $8.22 | $341,849,500 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-09-30 | $8.22 | $341,849,500 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-01 | $8.22 | $341,849,500 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-02 | $8.22 | $341,849,500 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-03 | $8.22 | $341,849,500 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-04 | $8.22 | $341,849,500 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-05 | $8.22 | $341,849,500 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-06 | $8.22 | $341,849,500 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-07 | $8.22 | $341,849,500 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-08 | $8.22 | $341,849,500 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-09 | $8.22 | $341,849,500 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-10 | $8.22 | $341,849,500 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-11 | $8.22 | $341,849,500 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-12 | $8.22 | $341,849,500 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-13 | $8.22 | $341,849,500 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-14 | $8.26 | $344,166,333 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-15 | $8.26 | $344,166,333 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-16 | $8.26 | $344,166,333 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-17 | $8.26 | $344,166,333 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-18 | $8.26 | $344,166,333 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-19 | $8.26 | $344,166,333 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-20 | $8.26 | $344,166,333 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-21 | $8.26 | $344,166,333 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-22 | $8.26 | $344,166,333 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-23 | $8.26 | $344,166,333 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-24 | $8.26 | $344,166,333 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-25 | $8.26 | $344,166,333 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-26 | $8.26 | $344,166,333 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-27 | $8.26 | $344,166,333 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-28 | $8.26 | $344,166,333 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-29 | $8.26 | $344,166,333 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-30 | $8.26 | $344,166,333 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-31 | $8.26 | $344,166,333 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-11-01 | $8.26 | $344,166,333 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-11-02 | $8.26 | $344,166,333 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-11-03 | $8.26 | $344,166,333 | 3 / 1 |
| 2026-11-04 | $8.31 | $344,899,667 | 3 / 1 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 1 Buy / Strong Buy · 3 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 0 recorded
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.