First Financial Corp/IN (THFF)
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-09-04
$79.34+0.81%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · THFF
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -27.5% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| 5.0% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 32.5 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 219 industry peers
THFF — litigation filed
Dated 2026-08-27
of this Current Report on Form 8-K. Forward-Looking Statements. Certain statements contained in this report, which are not statements of historical fact, constitute forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Such statements include, but are not limited to, certain plans, expectations, goals, projections, and benefits relating to the proposed merger between FFC and First Illinois, which are subject to numerous assumptions, risks a…
Why it matters: Higher net charge-offs may mean worse credit quality. This can hurt future profits.
Worry ifNet charge-offs exceed $3 million in Q3 2026.
Less concerning ifNet charge-offs remain below $3 million in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: Low nonperforming loans show strong credit quality. It also shows good risk management.
Supportive ifNonperforming loans are below 0.64% of total loans.
Worry ifNonperforming loans are above 0.64% of total loans.
Why it matters: Keeping the dividend shows financial strength. It also shows commitment to shareholders.
Supportive ifThe company declares a $0.56 dividend for Q3 2026.
Worry ifThe company reduces the dividend below $0.56 for Q3 2026.
Why it matters: Exceeding last quarter's net income would show continued strong performance and growth.
Supportive ifQ3 net income reported above $22.7 million.
Worry ifQ3 net income reported below $22.7 million.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$85 on $10,000 · ±0.8% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $234 loss on $10,000 · 2.3% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,287 loss on $10,000 · 12.9% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: A drop below this level may signal a slowdown in the financial sector's growth phase.
Worry ifSector revenue growth reports show growth below 15%.
Less concerning ifSector revenue growth remains above 15%.
Why it matters: Achieving this EPS target shows strong financial health and growth momentum. It reflects the company's ability to generate profits.
Supportive ifQ3 diluted EPS was $1.67 or higher. This shows steady growth toward $6.68.
Worry ifQ3 diluted EPS was below $1.67. This shows slower earnings growth.
Why it matters: Hitting this EPS target shows strong profits and growth potential.
Supportive ifDiluted EPS for the next quarter shows growth on track to meet or exceed $6.68.
Worry ifEPS growth stagnates or declines, showing less than $6.68 for the fiscal year.
Why it matters: Slower loan growth may mean less demand or more competition. This could hurt revenue growth.
Worry ifTotal loans grew less than 5% from last year.
Less concerning ifTotal loans grew more than 5% from last year. This shows strong demand.
Why it matters: This merger is key for growth. It will increase assets and expand the market presence.
Supportive ifThe merger will close as planned in Q4 2026. This confirms the expansion strategy.
Worry ifThe merger has delays or regulatory issues. This affects growth plans.
Why it matters: Keeping the dividend shows good money management. It also shows steady earnings.
Supportive ifThe company pays a $0.56 dividend in October 2026 as planned.
Worry ifThe company cuts the dividend below $0.56. This shows financial strain.
Why it matters: Meeting the EPS target of $6.68 for 2026 is crucial for investor confidence.
Supportive ifQ3 net income grows to support the EPS target, showing strong earnings momentum.
Worry ifNet income declines or fails to grow, raising concerns about achieving the EPS target.
Why it matters: More nonperforming loans may mean credit problems. This can hurt profits.
Worry ifNonperforming loans are below $30 million. This shows stable asset quality.
Less concerning ifNonperforming loans are over $30 million. This raises concerns about credit risk.