First Financial Corp/IN (THFF)
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-11-05
$76.59-3.32%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-11-05
QuarterlyIQ Insights · THFF
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -31.4% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 3.7% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-05.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 35.1 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-05 · Compared with 230 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
THFF — dividend update
Dated 2026-09-17
Other Events. On September 17, 2026, First Financial Corporation issued a press release to report the declaration of the quarterly dividend of $0.56 per share payable October 15, 2026, to shareholders of record on October 1, 2026. The release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 hereto.
Why it matters: The deal adds a major growth step. A timely close would confirm progress; a delay or failure would weaken that case.
Supportive ifFirst Financial reports that the First Illinois merger closed by March 31, 2027, under the announced terms.
Worry ifThe merger is terminated, or First Financial reports it will not close by March 31, 2027.
Why it matters: Paul Nungester is set to take over from a CFO who served since 2010. A smooth handoff would confirm an orderly change.
Supportive ifThe company confirms Paul Nungester became CFO on January 1, 2027, with no reported change to the date.
Worry ifThe company delays or changes Nungester's appointment. Or it reports the CFO role is vacant after January 1, 2027.
Why it matters: The merger faces legal action noted in the supplied event record. A court delay could put the Q1 2027 close at risk.
Worry ifA court order blocks or delays the merger past March 31, 2027, or First Financial reports a related closing delay.
Less concerning ifFirst Financial reports that the merger closed by March 31, 2027, with no court block.
Why it matters: Loans grew 11.20% year over year, but fell 1.26% from June. A return to growth would back the loan-growth plan.
Supportive ifTotal loans at the next quarter-end report rise above $4.412 billion, the September 2026 level.
Worry ifTotal loans fall below $4.412 billion at the next reported quarter-end.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$80 on $10,000 · ±0.8% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $219 loss on $10,000 · 2.2% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,208 loss on $10,000 · 12.1% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: The ratio fell from 0.64% in June to 0.48% in September. A rise above June's level would show that credit trouble is growing again.
Worry ifThe reported share of nonperforming loans rises above 0.61% in a later quarter.
Less concerning ifThe ratio stays at or below 0.48% in the next reported quarter.