Expectations trend
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-07-31 · fmp
Thor Industries (THO)
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryAuto - Recreational VehiclesSnapshot 2026-11-04
$84.65+9.35%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryAuto - Recreational VehiclesSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
4.89 → 4.84 EPS · FY ending Jul 31, 2028 · 10 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 9 to 10; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for THO yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Maintain disciplined capital allocation with $50.5M share repurchases in Q2 2026 | The company targets disciplined capital allocation, repurchasing $50.5M shares in Q2. | Intact | Share repurchases fall below $50M in 2026-Q2 | Required source inputs unavailable Cannot calculate Share repurchases from the available matching source inputs. Missing inputs are not treated as zero. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-07-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
THO is a cyclical RV business with a possible operational recovery story, not a proven near-term rebound. The long-term thesis is on watch as recent performance trails its industry cohort and earnings misses have continued.
THO is valued at a premium to peers, and the valuation signal is stretched, with a modest expectations gap. The evidence points to some re-rating expectations in the valuation, but does not specify exactly what operating recovery the market assumes.
Near term, erratic earnings surprises, consecutive misses, and a recent earnings miss leave results at risk of further weakness. Over the multi-year view, North American Towable revenue declined while Motorized and European revenue grew; restructuring is underway, but its results remain mixed. Debt reduction and capital returns show disciplined capital management, while the impact of product innovation is not quantified.
A guidance increase next quarter after the earlier reduction would signal a change in execution; continued misses or lower guidance would deepen the concern. Sector bellwethers’ earnings and guidance also matter, since further strength could support the sector backdrop, while weakness could remove that tailwind.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, the thesis depends on realignment improving operations and recent earnings weakness easing, against a stretched valuation and elevated business risk. Evidence of progress is mixed, so the current read remains watch. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Stated in 2 of 3 supplied quarters. Management reported: ““As we enter the final quarter of fiscal 2026 mindful of the heightened uncertainty affecting consumer confidence and dealer ordering patterns, we are focused on execution: progressing through the operational steps of our North American RV realignment, continuing to invest in product innovation across all of our brands and maintaining the disciplined capital allocation framework that has allowed us to return capital to shareholders while preserving balance sheet strength.”
Manage impact of rising oil prices and interest rates on consumer demand | A primary condition in Thor Industries's published investment case. The stated target is Inflation and rates remain stable or improve from current levels. | Under Pressure | Sustained rise in oil prices and interest rates hurting demand | Qualitative: Sustained rise in oil/rates confirmed Q1 news cites rising oil/rates hurting demand; Q4 earnings missed on margin pressure. Nov 4, 2026Last status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Gross margin near 14% in FY25 | Despite recent challenges, profit margins near 14% are stable. | Broken | Gross margin falls below 13.8% in FY25 | Gross margin: 12.36% FY2026-Q4; GAAP. Published target: >=13.8%. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Nov 3, 202612.356313 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Revenue near $9.5 billion in FY26 | A primary condition in Thor Industries's published investment case. The stated target is ~$9.5B. | Broken | Revenue falls below $9.0B in FY26 | Revenue: $2.312B FY2026-Q4; GAAP. Published target: ~$9.5B. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Sep 22, 20262,311,540,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 3 of 3 supplied quarters. Management reported: “In the meantime, we can share that we expect the cumulative impact of our key strategic initiatives and restructuring activities to drive costs out of our business and improve our earnings profile in excess of $100 million annually once the initiatives are fully implemented.” ““This year’s pressure has been concentrated in gross margin, and the structural actions now underway are designed to lower our cost base durably, not temporarily, and to expand margins as volumes and mix recover.” Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$5.08 → $4.84 · observed estimates
$10.20B → $10.16B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-01 | $5.08 | $10,199,189,616 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-02 | $5.08 | $10,199,189,616 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-03 | $5.08 | $10,199,189,616 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-04 | $5.08 | $10,199,189,616 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-05 | $5.08 | $10,199,189,616 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-06 | $5.08 | $10,199,189,616 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-08 | $5.08 | $10,199,189,616 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-09 | $5.08 | $10,199,189,616 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-10 | $5.08 | $10,199,189,616 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-12 | $5.08 | $10,199,189,616 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-13 | $5.08 | $10,199,189,616 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-14 | $5.08 | $10,199,189,616 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-15 | $5.08 | $10,199,189,616 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-16 | $5.08 | $10,199,189,616 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-17 | $5.08 | $10,199,189,616 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-18 | $5.08 | $10,199,189,616 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-19 | $5.08 | $10,199,189,616 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-20 | $5.08 | $10,199,189,616 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-21 | $5.08 | $10,199,189,616 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-22 | $5.08 | $10,199,189,616 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-23 | $5.08 | $10,199,189,616 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-24 | $5.08 | $10,199,189,616 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-25 | $5.08 | $10,199,189,616 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-26 | $5.08 | $10,199,189,616 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-27 | $5.08 | $10,199,189,616 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-28 | $5.08 | $10,199,189,616 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-29 | $5.08 | $10,199,189,616 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-30 | $5.08 | $10,199,189,616 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-31 | $5.08 | $10,199,189,616 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-01 | $5.08 | $10,199,189,616 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-02 | $5.08 | $10,199,189,616 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-03 | $5.08 | $10,199,189,616 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-04 | $5.08 | $10,199,189,616 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-05 | $5.08 | $10,199,189,616 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-06 | $5.08 | $10,199,189,616 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-07 | $5.08 | $10,199,189,616 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-08 | $5.08 | $10,199,189,616 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-09 | $5.08 | $10,199,189,616 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-10 | $5.08 | $10,199,189,616 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-11 | $5.08 | $10,199,189,616 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-12 | $5.08 | $10,199,189,616 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-13 | $5.08 | $10,199,189,616 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-14 | $5.08 | $10,199,189,616 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-15 | $5.08 | $10,199,189,616 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-16 | $4.85 | $10,143,447,592 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-17 | $4.85 | $10,143,447,592 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-18 | $4.85 | $10,143,447,592 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-19 | $4.85 | $10,143,447,592 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-20 | $4.96 | $10,226,212,993 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-21 | $4.96 | $10,226,212,993 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-22 | $4.91 | $10,248,092,653 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-23 | $4.80 | $10,195,262,694 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-24 | $4.80 | $10,195,262,694 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-25 | $4.89 | $10,192,566,143 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-09-26 | $4.89 | $10,192,566,143 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-09-27 | $4.89 | $10,192,566,143 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-09-28 | $4.89 | $10,192,566,143 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-09-29 | $4.89 | $10,192,566,143 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-09-30 | $4.89 | $10,192,566,143 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-10-01 | $4.89 | $10,192,566,143 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-10-02 | $4.89 | $10,192,566,143 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-10-03 | $4.89 | $10,192,566,143 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-10-04 | $4.89 | $10,192,566,143 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-10-05 | $4.89 | $10,192,584,112 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-10-06 | $4.89 | $10,192,584,112 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-10-07 | $4.89 | $10,192,566,143 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-10-08 | $4.89 | $10,192,566,143 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-10-09 | $4.89 | $10,184,852,297 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-10-10 | $4.89 | $10,184,852,297 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-10-11 | $4.89 | $10,184,852,297 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-10-12 | $4.89 | $10,184,852,297 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-10-13 | $4.88 | $10,156,490,287 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-10-14 | $4.88 | $10,156,515,287 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-10-15 | $4.88 | $10,156,515,287 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-10-16 | $4.88 | $10,156,515,287 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-10-17 | $4.88 | $10,156,515,287 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-10-18 | $4.88 | $10,156,515,287 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-10-19 | $4.88 | $10,156,515,287 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-10-20 | $4.88 | $10,156,515,287 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-10-21 | $4.84 | $10,158,073,620 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-10-22 | $4.84 | $10,158,073,620 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-10-23 | $4.84 | $10,158,073,620 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-10-24 | $4.84 | $10,158,073,620 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-10-25 | $4.84 | $10,158,073,620 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-10-26 | $4.84 | $10,158,073,620 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-10-27 | $4.84 | $10,158,073,620 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-10-28 | $4.84 | $10,158,073,620 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-10-29 | $4.84 | $10,158,073,620 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-10-30 | $4.84 | $10,158,073,620 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-10-31 | $4.84 | $10,158,073,620 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-11-01 | $4.84 | $10,158,073,620 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-11-02 | $4.84 | $10,158,073,620 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-11-03 | $4.84 | $10,158,073,620 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-11-04 | $4.84 | $10,158,073,620 | 10 / 10 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 5 Buy / Strong Buy · 11 Hold · 1 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 2 recorded
1 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Dec 2, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Review earnings4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.