Thor Industries (THO)
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryAuto - Recreational VehiclesSnapshot 2026-09-04
$76.94+1.53%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryAuto - Recreational VehiclesSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · THO
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -0.7% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 2.0% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 2.7 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 4 industry peers
THO — dividend update
Dated 2026-06-16
Other Events On June 16, 2026, the Board of Directors of THOR Industries, Inc. (the “Company”) declared a regular cash dividend of $0.52 per share of common stock, payable on July 15, 2026, to shareholders of record at the close of business on July 1, 2026. A copy of the Company’s press release announcing the dividend is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 and is incorporated by reference herein.
Why it matters: Updates could mean better sales and profits in a tough market.
Supportive ifManagement shares success in key plans from the realignment.
Worry ifNo updates or bad news on the realignment progress.
Why it matters: A lower EPS shows problems in making money during tough times.
Worry ifQ3 diluted EPS falls below $3.30.
Less concerning ifQ3 diluted EPS stays at or above $3.30.
Why it matters: A drop over 24% shows problems with consumer demand and dealer trust.
Worry ifNorth American Towable segment net sales decline worse than 24.6% year over year.
Less concerning ifNorth American Towable segment net sales decline less than 24.6% year over year.
Why it matters: Better consumer confidence may increase RV demand and help sales.
Supportive ifThe consumer confidence index is above 100. This shows better feelings.
Worry ifThe consumer confidence index is below 90. This shows worse feelings.
Why it matters: A drop below this level means worse profits and more operational problems.
Worry ifQ3 adjusted EBITDA is less than $180 million.
Less concerning ifQ3 adjusted EBITDA is more than $180 million.
Why it matters: Clear signs would show that management's plan is solving current problems.
Supportive ifManagement reports clear gains in net sales or margins from the changes.
Worry ifNo gains in net sales or margins despite the changes.
Why it matters: Any changes to EPS guidance show ongoing problems with making money.
Worry ifManagement lowers full-year EPS guidance from $3.75-$4.25 to $3.30-$3.80.
Less concerning ifManagement keeps or raises full-year EPS guidance above $3.80.
Why it matters: Stronger growth would show that the European market is doing well despite challenges.
Supportive ifEuropean RV sales grow more than 11.8% year over year.
Worry ifEuropean RV sales grow less than 11.8% year over year.
Why it matters: More share buybacks show confidence in finances and a promise to return money to investors.
Supportive ifShare repurchases in Q4 exceed $50.5 million.
Worry ifShare repurchases in Q4 are less than $50.5 million.
Why it matters: A drop in revenue growth signals a potential shift in the consumer discretionary sector. This could impact Thor Industries' performance.
Worry ifRevenue growth falls below the median for the sector, indicating a slowdown.
Less concerning ifRevenue growth remains above the median, suggesting continued strength in the sector.
Why it matters: The Q4 results will show if the company can meet its revised EPS guidance amid challenges.
Watch forQ4 diluted earnings per share meets or exceeds the revised guidance of $3.30 to $3.80.
Also watch forQ4 diluted earnings per share falls below the revised guidance of $3.30.
Why it matters: A rise over 7% shows strong demand for motorized RVs despite market issues.
Supportive ifNorth American Motorized sales rise more than 7.7% from last year.
Worry ifNorth American Motorized sales rise less than 7.7% from last year.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$156 on $10,000 · ±1.6% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $440 loss on $10,000 · 4.4% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,983 loss on $10,000 · 39.8% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.