Gentherm Incorporated (THRM)
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryAuto - PartsSnapshot 2026-09-04
$40.70+1.70%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryAuto - PartsSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · THRM
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -0.6% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 5.9% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 6.6 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 32 industry peers
THRM — credit agreement
Dated 2026-07-02
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. Third Amended and Restated Credit Agreement On June 29, 2026, Gentherm Incorporated, a Michigan corporation (“Gentherm”), together with its direct and indirect subsidiaries Gentherm (Texas), Inc., a Texas corporation (“Gentherm Texas”), Gentherm Medical, LLC, an Ohio limited liability company (“Gentherm Medical” and, together with Gentherm and Gentherm Texas, the “US Borrowers”), Gentherm GmbH, a German limited liability company (“Gentherm Germany”)…
Why it matters: Closing this deal will expand Gentherm's product portfolio and market reach, supporting growth.
Supportive ifThe combination with Modine closes by early Q4 2026 as planned.
Worry ifThe combination is delayed beyond early Q4 2026.
Why it matters: Completing the acquisition will make Gentherm's products better. It will also help their market position.
Supportive ifThe acquisition is completed by early Q4 2026 as planned.
Worry ifThe acquisition is delayed beyond Q4 2026.
Why it matters: This growth shows the company can make more money in a tough market.
Supportive ifAutomotive Climate and Comfort Solutions revenue grows year over year by more than 12%.
Worry ifAutomotive Climate and Comfort Solutions revenue growth is less than 8% year over year.
Why it matters: Sales from this new product will show if they entered the market well. It will also help them make more money.
Supportive ifReported revenue from the ThermAffyx system in Q3 2026.
Worry ifNo revenue reported from the ThermAffyx system in Q3 2026.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$169 on $10,000 · ±1.7% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $359 loss on $10,000 · 3.6% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,032 loss on $10,000 · 30.3% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: This growth rate confirms Gentherm's ongoing revenue momentum and aligns with its annual guidance.
Supportive ifQ2 revenue growth of 7.2% or more compared to Q2 2025.
Worry ifQ2 revenue growth falls below 5% year over year.
Why it matters: Growth in medical products shows recovery. This helps overall revenue.
Supportive ifMedical product revenue growth turns positive year over year in Q3 2026.
Worry ifMedical product revenue continues to decline year over year in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: Starting the buyback program shows management's trust in cash flow and value.
Supportive ifThe company announces the start of the $400 million stock buyback program.
Worry ifNo announcement or execution of the buyback program by the end of Q3 2026.
Why it matters: Rising net income shows the company is keeping costs under control.
Supportive ifNet income increases by more than 10% compared to Q1.
Worry ifNet income decreases or stays flat compared to Q1.
Why it matters: A further drop would show rising cost issues and operational problems.
Worry ifGross margin reported below 23.2% in Q3 2026.
Less concerning ifGross margin stabilizes or improves above 23.2% in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: If the margin stays steady, it means better efficiency. This leads to more profit.
Supportive ifAdjusted EBITDA margin stays above 11.7% in Q3.
Worry ifAdjusted EBITDA margin falls below 11.0% in Q3.
Why it matters: Higher net income means the company is making more money and performing better.
Supportive ifNet income exceeds $4.2 million in Q2 2026.
Worry ifNet income falls below $3 million in Q2 2026.
Why it matters: This shows a slowdown in growth. It may hurt investor confidence.
Worry ifQ3 product revenue growth reported below 9.5% year over year.
Less concerning ifQ3 product revenue growth meets or exceeds 9.5% year over year.
Why it matters: Better cash flow is important for funding growth and keeping cash available.
Supportive ifCash flow from operations exceeds $10 million in Q3.
Worry ifCash flow from operations stays negative or under $5 million.
Why it matters: Securing more awards would support revenue growth and show strong market demand.
Supportive ifNew automotive business awards are more than $690 million in Q3 2026.
Worry ifNew automotive business awards are less than $690 million in Q3 2026.