Gentherm Incorporated (THRM)
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryAuto - PartsSnapshot 2026-11-04
$31.11+2.67%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryAuto - PartsSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · THRM
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance recently climbed back into the top half of its industry — confirming the recovery.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -9.9% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 48.9% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 58.8 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Worth watching into the next print: this name has erratic recent earnings surprises and missed its most recent quarter. A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 19 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
THRM — earnings miss
Dated 2026-10-22
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On October 22, 2026, Gentherm Incorporated (the “Company”) publicly announced its financial results for the third quarter of 2026 and updated full year 2026 guidance. A copy of the Company’s news release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 and is incorporated herein by reference.
Why it matters: The company raised its cash flow range while adding Modine. Meeting the range would show the larger business can produce cash.
Watch forFull-year 2026 adjusted free cash flow is at least $100 million, the low end of guidance.
Also watch forFull-year 2026 adjusted free cash flow is below $100 million.
Why it matters: Q3 gross margin fell from 24.6% a year earlier. A further drop would show that cost pressure still weighs on results.
Worry ifA later quarter reports gross margin below 23.3%.
Less concerning ifA later quarter reports gross margin above 23.3%.
Why it matters: The new full-year range includes Modine’s Q4 contribution. Results will test whether Gentherm can reach the higher sales range.
Watch forFull-year 2026 product revenue is at least $1.825 billion, the low end of guidance.
Also watch forFull-year 2026 product revenue is below $1.825 billion.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$191 on $10,000 · ±1.9% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $395 loss on $10,000 · 3.9% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $4,267 loss on $10,000 · 42.7% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.