Expectations trend
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-01-31 · fmp
Tilly's Inc (TLYS)
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryApparel - RetailSnapshot 2026-11-04
$4.21-4.10%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryApparel - RetailSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
0.20 → 0.20 EPS · FY ending Jan 31, 2028 · 1 analyst
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 1 to 1; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for TLYS yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Gross profit margins stabilize or improve | Management aims for positive net income and better profit margins. | Intact | gross profit falls significantly below $36M in Q3 2026 | Gross profit: $58.095M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: Maintain or improve gross profit near $36M in Q3 2026. Same fiscal period as the stored target. Sep 3, 202658,095,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-01-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Review the published break conditions above; missing evidence is not proof of success.
Dec 2, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Review earningsObserved price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a high-risk retail recovery case, not yet a proven durable growth story. The thesis is in a watch state: management has made progress on sales and margins, but profitability remains a key test.
The valuation is classified as cheap, though the model has low confidence and indicates a premium versus peers. The expectations gap is 0.39, with optionality driving the difference; the evidence does not specify what investors expect in detail.
Near term, results show better sales and a sharp margin improvement, with net income moving from a quarterly loss to a profit. Management is on track with revenue and margin priorities, while sustained profitability is still being monitored; a guidance cut remains a meaningful risk.
Over the next several quarters, the thesis depends on continued sales growth, margin gains, and a durable return to positive earnings. Sector bellwethers such as TJX, ROST, and BURL are important signals: continued strength could support sector momentum, while misses or lower guidance could remove that tailwind.
The 1-to-3-year view is cautiously watchful: operating trends have improved, but the weak recent-performance assessment and high risk leave the recovery unproven. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Stated in 2 of 2 supplied quarters. Management reported: “• Gross profit, including buying, distribution, and occupancy costs, was $58.1 million, or 35.5% of net sales, an improvement of $9.0 million or 300 basis points as a percentage of net sales compared to $49.1 million, or 32.5% of net sales, last year.” “Product margins improved by 140 basis points as a percentage of net sales, marking the Company's seventh consecutive quarter with year-over-year product margin improvement.” Gross profit was $58.095 million in 2026-Q2.
Net income improves toward positive territory | Management aims for positive net income and better profit margins. | Intact | EPS falls below $0.13 in Q3 2026 | Diluted EPS: $0.27 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: EPS >= $0.13 in Q3 2026. Same fiscal period as the stored target. Sep 3, 20260.27 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 2 of 2 supplied quarters. Management reported: “We also delivered our fifth consecutive quarter of year-over-year profit improvement in the second quarter," commented Nate Smith, President and Chief Executive Officer.” “• Operating income improved to $8.2 million, or 5.0% of net sales, compared to $2.7 million, or 1.8% of net sales, last year, due to the combined impact of the factors noted above.” Operating income was $8.173 million in 2026-Q2. Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Revenue growth stays near or above guidance range | A primary condition in Tilly's Inc's published investment case. The stated target is >= $154M revenue in Q3 2026. | Intact | revenue falls below $154M in Q3 2026 | Revenue: $163.508M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $154M revenue in Q3 2026. Same fiscal period as the stored target. Sep 3, 2026163,508,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$0.14 → $0.20 · observed estimates
$0.60B → $0.61B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $0.14 | $602,933,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-25 | $0.14 | $602,933,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-26 | $0.14 | $602,933,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-27 | $0.14 | $602,933,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-28 | $0.14 | $602,933,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-29 | $0.14 | $602,933,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-30 | $0.14 | $602,933,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-31 | $0.14 | $602,933,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-01 | $0.14 | $602,933,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-02 | $0.14 | $602,933,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-03 | $0.14 | $602,933,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-04 | $0.14 | $602,933,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-05 | $0.14 | $602,933,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-06 | $0.14 | $602,933,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-08 | $0.14 | $602,933,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-09 | $0.14 | $602,933,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-10 | $0.14 | $602,933,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-12 | $0.14 | $602,933,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-13 | $0.14 | $602,933,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-14 | $0.14 | $602,933,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-15 | $0.14 | $602,933,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-16 | $0.14 | $602,933,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-17 | $0.14 | $602,933,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-18 | $0.14 | $602,933,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-19 | $0.14 | $602,933,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-20 | $0.14 | $602,933,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-21 | $0.14 | $602,933,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-22 | $0.14 | $602,933,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-23 | $0.14 | $602,933,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-24 | $0.14 | $602,933,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-25 | $0.14 | $602,933,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-26 | $0.14 | $602,933,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-27 | $0.14 | $602,933,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-28 | $0.14 | $602,933,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-29 | $0.14 | $602,933,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-30 | $0.14 | $602,933,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-31 | $0.14 | $602,933,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-01 | $0.14 | $602,933,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-02 | $0.14 | $602,933,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-03 | $0.14 | $602,933,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-04 | $0.20 | $604,333,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-05 | $0.20 | $604,333,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-06 | $0.20 | $604,333,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-07 | $0.20 | $604,333,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-08 | $0.20 | $604,333,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-09 | $0.20 | $604,333,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-10 | $0.20 | $604,333,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-11 | $0.20 | $604,333,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-12 | $0.20 | $604,333,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-13 | $0.20 | $604,333,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-14 | $0.20 | $604,333,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-15 | $0.20 | $604,333,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-16 | $0.20 | $607,550,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-17 | $0.20 | $607,550,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-18 | $0.20 | $607,550,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-19 | $0.20 | $607,550,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-20 | $0.20 | $607,550,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-21 | $0.20 | $607,550,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-22 | $0.20 | $607,550,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-23 | $0.20 | $607,550,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-24 | $0.20 | $607,550,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-25 | $0.20 | $607,550,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-26 | $0.20 | $607,550,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-27 | $0.20 | $607,550,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-28 | $0.20 | $607,550,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-29 | $0.20 | $607,550,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-30 | $0.20 | $607,550,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-01 | $0.20 | $607,550,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-02 | $0.20 | $607,550,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-03 | $0.20 | $607,550,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-04 | $0.20 | $607,550,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-05 | $0.20 | $607,550,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-06 | $0.20 | $607,550,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-07 | $0.20 | $607,550,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-08 | $0.20 | $607,550,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-09 | $0.20 | $607,550,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-10 | $0.20 | $607,550,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-11 | $0.20 | $607,550,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-12 | $0.20 | $607,550,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-13 | $0.20 | $607,550,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-14 | $0.20 | $607,550,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-15 | $0.20 | $607,550,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-16 | $0.20 | $607,550,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-17 | $0.20 | $607,550,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-18 | $0.20 | $607,550,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-19 | $0.20 | $607,550,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-20 | $0.20 | $607,550,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-21 | $0.20 | $607,550,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-22 | $0.20 | $607,550,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-23 | $0.20 | $607,550,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-24 | $0.20 | $607,550,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-25 | $0.20 | $607,550,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-26 | $0.20 | $607,550,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-27 | $0.20 | $607,550,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-28 | $0.20 | $607,550,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-29 | $0.20 | $607,550,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-30 | $0.20 | $607,550,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-31 | $0.20 | $607,550,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-01 | $0.20 | $607,550,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-02 | $0.20 | $607,550,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-03 | $0.20 | $607,550,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-04 | $0.20 | $607,550,000 | 1 / 1 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 0 Buy / Strong Buy · 1 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
The available assessments flag no unresolved thesis condition. The next results still need to support the ongoing thesis conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.