Tilly's Inc (TLYS)
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryApparel - RetailSnapshot 2026-11-04
$4.21-4.10%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryApparel - RetailSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · TLYS
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 45.7% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 6.8% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 38.9 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 3 industry peers
TLYS — credit agreement
Dated 2026-06-12
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement On June 10, 2026, World of Jeans & Tops, a California corporation and a wholly owned subsidiary of Tilly’s, Inc., a Delaware corporation (the “Company”), as borrower, and the Company, as guarantor, entered into the Second Amendment to Credit Agreement (the “Amendment”), which amends the Credit Agreement (as amended, the “Agreement”), dated as of April 27, 2023, with Wells Fargo Bank, National Association. The Amendment, among other changes, extends t…
Why it matters: Tilly's sells apparel and footwear in a consumer sector marked as shrinking. Falling retail sales would add pressure to demand.
Worry ifThe November 17 retail sales report shows total retail sales down from the prior month.
Less concerning ifThe November 17 report shows total retail sales up from the prior month.
Why it matters: Tilly's forecast 10% to 14% comparable sales growth for Q3. A miss would break its recent strong sales run.
Worry ifQ3 comparable net sales growth is below 10% year over year.
Less concerning ifQ3 comparable net sales growth is 10% or higher year over year.
Why it matters: Management said it was on track for its first profitable year since 2022. A Q3 miss would put that goal at risk.
Worry ifQ3 net income is below $2.2 million, or the company reports a net loss.
Less concerning ifQ3 net income is at least $2.2 million.
Why it matters: Tilly's forecast slightly higher product margins. Lower margins could weaken its recent profit gains.
Worry ifQ3 product margin is lower year over year.
Less concerning ifQ3 product margin is flat or higher year over year.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$232 on $10,000 · ±2.3% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $673 loss on $10,000 · 6.7% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,317 loss on $10,000 · 33.2% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: The company planned to end Q3 with 220 stores. A lower count may add pressure as it works to keep sales growing.
Worry ifTilly's reports fewer than 220 stores at the end of Q3.
Less concerning ifTilly's reports 220 stores at the end of Q3.