Tilly's Inc (TLYS)
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryApparel - RetailSnapshot 2026-09-04
$4.400.00%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryApparel - RetailSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · TLYS
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 154.6% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 5.6% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 149.0 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 16 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
TLYS — credit agreement
Dated 2026-06-12
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement On June 10, 2026, World of Jeans & Tops, a California corporation and a wholly owned subsidiary of Tilly’s, Inc., a Delaware corporation (the “Company”), as borrower, and the Company, as guarantor, entered into the Second Amendment to Credit Agreement (the “Amendment”), which amends the Credit Agreement (as amended, the “Agreement”), dated as of April 27, 2023, with Wells Fargo Bank, National Association. The Amendment, among other changes, extends t…
Why it matters: A decline shows issues with cost management. It also impacts profits.
Worry ifGross profit margins reported lower than last year's record rate.
Less concerning ifGross profit margins reported flat or up compared to last year's record rate.
Why it matters: A larger decline in store count could indicate deeper issues in the retail strategy.
Worry ifStore count decreases by more than 7.6% compared to last year.
Less concerning ifStore count remains stable or decreases less than 7.6% compared to last year.
Why it matters: Higher costs might show waste and affect net income.
Worry ifSG&A expenses exceed $49 million for Q2 fiscal 2026.
Less concerning ifSG&A expenses remain below $48 million for Q2 fiscal 2026.
Why it matters: Improving revenue would show Tilly's is making progress on its growth goals. It would also help offset recent mixed results.
Supportive ifQ2 revenue was over $125 million. This shows stronger sales.
Worry ifQ2 revenue was under $119 million. This shows ongoing struggles in growth.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$248 on $10,000 · ±2.5% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $673 loss on $10,000 · 6.7% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $4,327 loss on $10,000 · 43.3% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Improving margins show Tilly's is managing costs well. This supports ongoing profitability and growth.
Supportive ifGross profit margins improve compared to last year's Q3.
Worry ifGross profit margins decline compared to last year's Q3.
Why it matters: Keeping the same number of stores while boosting sales shows good management.
Supportive ifStore count remains at 220 by the end of Q3.
Worry ifStore count drops below 220 by the end of Q3.
Why it matters: This range shows if Tilly's can make money. Positive net income is key for investor trust.
Supportive ifNet income reported is between $2.2 million and $3.7 million for Q3.
Worry ifNet income is below $2.2 million for Q3.
Why it matters: This range shows if Tilly's can keep its sales momentum going. Sustained growth is key for future profitability.
Supportive ifComparable net sales growth falls within the 10% to 14% range for Q3.
Worry ifComparable net sales growth is below 10% for Q3.