Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Treace Medical Concepts, Inc. (TMCI)
NASDAQHealth CareMedical - DevicesSnapshot 2026-11-05
$4.18-7.11%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareMedical - DevicesSnapshot 2026-11-05
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
Matching fiscal periods, usable estimates and at least one analyst are required.
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least one analyst and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for TMCI yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Reduce cash usage by 50% in 2026 versus 2025 | The company aims to cut cash usage by 50% in 2026. | Improving | cash usage reduction less than 25% in FY26 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 2 of 2 supplied quarters. Management reported: “• Reduced year-to-date cash usage by 57% or $3.6 million when compared to the same period in 2025.” “The Company reported a loss of $3.9 million in the full-year 2025.* The Company reiterates its expectation for a reduction in cash usage of approximately 50% for full-year 2026 as compared to the full year 2025.” |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Nov 6, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a speculative growth and execution story, not a proven durable compounder. The multi-year view is on watch: management is stable, but recent financial performance is weak and the business remains loss-making.
The valuation evidence is mixed and low confidence: TMCI is described as cheap versus peers, while also showing a 47% premium versus peers. The expectations gap is negative, and the market-pricing tag is justified, but the evidence does not show exactly which operating expectations are reflected.
Near term, cash usage is moving in the right direction: it was down 57% year to date through the second quarter, against a full-year goal of about 50%. Revenue fell in the first half, and full-year guidance allows for a decline of up to 4%; surgeon adoption of the expanded bunion portfolio rose from 35% to about 40% between the first and second quarters. The recent earnings beats are positive, but the longer-term trajectory still depends on execution and the company’s ability to improve weak results.
A favorable shift would require guidance to recover after it was lowered as of August 7, alongside continued progress in cash use and surgeon adoption. The case also depends on revenue stabilizing rather than weakening further. A softer jobs backdrop could weigh on cyclical businesses, while stronger results and guidance from sector peers could support the healthcare backdrop.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, TMCI’s long-term thesis hinges on turning cost control and product adoption into steadier revenue and better financial performance. The evidence is mixed, and confidence in the valuation read is low. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
EPS improves but remains negative near -$0.9 in 2026 | A supporting condition in Treace Medical Concepts, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is EPS around -$0.9. | Intact | EPS worse than -$1.0 in FY26 | Diluted EPS: $-0.24 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: EPS around -$0.9. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 7, 2026-0.24 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 2 of 2 supplied quarters. Management reported: “• Reduced year-to-date cash usage by 57% or $3.6 million when compared to the same period in 2025.” “The Company reported a loss of $3.9 million in the full-year 2025.* The Company reiterates its expectation for a reduction in cash usage of approximately 50% for full-year 2026 as compared to the full year 2025.” Delivery assessment Nov 5, 2026 |
Revenue grows to about $207 million in 2026 | Treace Medical is growing sales about 5% a year to over $200 million in 2026. | Intact | revenue falls below $202 million in FY26 | Revenue: $45.376M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: ~$207 million. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 7, 202645,376,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$-0.90 → $-0.77 · observed estimates
$0.22B → $0.22B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $-0.90 | $221,804,740 | 1 / 5 |
| 2026-07-25 | $-0.90 | $221,804,740 | 1 / 5 |
| 2026-07-26 | $-0.90 | $221,804,740 | 1 / 5 |
| 2026-07-27 | $-0.90 | $221,804,740 | 1 / 5 |
| 2026-07-28 | $-0.90 | $221,804,740 | 1 / 5 |
| 2026-07-29 | $-0.84 | $221,860,000 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-07-30 | $-0.84 | $221,860,000 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-07-31 | $-0.90 | $221,804,740 | 1 / 5 |
| 2026-08-01 | $-0.84 | $221,860,000 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-02 | $-0.90 | $221,804,740 | 1 / 5 |
| 2026-08-03 | $-0.90 | $221,804,740 | 1 / 5 |
| 2026-08-04 | $-0.90 | $221,804,740 | 1 / 5 |
| 2026-08-05 | $-0.90 | $221,804,740 | 1 / 5 |
| 2026-08-06 | $-0.90 | $221,804,740 | 1 / 5 |
| 2026-08-08 | $-0.84 | $221,860,000 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-09 | $-0.90 | $221,804,740 | 1 / 5 |
| 2026-08-10 | $-0.90 | $221,804,740 | 1 / 5 |
| 2026-08-12 | $-0.84 | $221,860,000 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-13 | $-0.84 | $221,860,000 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-14 | $-0.84 | $221,860,000 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-15 | $-0.84 | $221,860,000 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-16 | $-0.84 | $221,860,000 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-17 | $-0.84 | $221,860,000 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-18 | $-0.84 | $221,860,000 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-19 | $-0.84 | $221,860,000 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-20 | $-0.77 | $221,678,000 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-21 | $-0.78 | $221,678,020 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-22 | $-0.78 | $221,678,020 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-23 | $-0.78 | $221,678,020 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-24 | $-0.78 | $221,678,020 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-25 | $-0.78 | $221,678,020 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-26 | $-0.78 | $221,678,020 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-27 | $-0.78 | $221,678,020 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-28 | $-0.78 | $221,678,020 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-29 | $-0.78 | $221,678,020 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-30 | $-0.78 | $221,678,020 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-31 | $-0.78 | $221,678,020 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | $-0.78 | $221,678,020 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-02 | $-0.78 | $221,678,020 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-03 | $-0.78 | $221,678,020 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-04 | $-0.78 | $221,678,020 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-05 | $-0.78 | $221,678,020 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-06 | $-0.78 | $221,678,020 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-07 | $-0.78 | $221,678,020 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-08 | $-0.78 | $221,678,020 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-09 | $-0.78 | $221,678,020 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-10 | $-0.78 | $221,678,020 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-11 | $-0.78 | $221,678,020 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-12 | $-0.78 | $221,678,020 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-13 | $-0.78 | $221,678,020 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-14 | $-0.78 | $221,678,020 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-15 | $-0.78 | $221,678,020 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-16 | $-0.78 | $221,678,020 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-17 | $-0.78 | $221,678,020 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-18 | $-0.78 | $221,678,020 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-19 | $-0.78 | $221,678,020 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-20 | $-0.78 | $221,678,020 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-21 | $-0.78 | $221,678,020 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-22 | $-0.78 | $221,678,020 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-23 | $-0.78 | $221,678,020 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-24 | $-0.78 | $221,678,020 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-25 | $-0.78 | $221,678,020 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-26 | $-0.78 | $221,678,020 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-27 | $-0.78 | $221,678,020 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-28 | $-0.78 | $221,678,020 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-29 | $-0.78 | $221,678,020 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-30 | $-0.78 | $221,678,020 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-01 | $-0.78 | $221,678,020 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-02 | $-0.78 | $221,678,020 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-03 | $-0.78 | $221,678,020 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-04 | $-0.78 | $221,678,020 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-05 | $-0.78 | $221,678,020 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-06 | $-0.78 | $221,678,020 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-07 | $-0.78 | $221,678,020 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-08 | $-0.78 | $221,678,020 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-09 | $-0.78 | $221,678,020 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-10 | $-0.78 | $221,678,020 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-11 | $-0.78 | $221,678,020 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-12 | $-0.78 | $221,678,020 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-13 | $-0.77 | $221,682,000 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-14 | $-0.77 | $221,682,000 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-15 | $-0.77 | $221,640,000 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-16 | $-0.77 | $221,640,000 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-17 | $-0.77 | $221,640,000 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-18 | $-0.77 | $221,640,000 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-19 | $-0.77 | $221,640,000 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-20 | $-0.77 | $221,640,000 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-21 | $-0.77 | $221,640,000 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-22 | $-0.77 | $221,640,000 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-23 | $-0.77 | $221,640,000 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-24 | $-0.77 | $221,640,000 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-25 | $-0.77 | $221,640,000 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-26 | $-0.77 | $221,640,000 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-27 | $-0.77 | $221,640,000 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-28 | $-0.77 | $221,640,000 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-29 | $-0.77 | $221,640,000 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-30 | $-0.77 | $221,640,000 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-31 | $-0.77 | $221,640,000 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-11-01 | $-0.77 | $221,640,000 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-11-02 | $-0.77 | $221,640,000 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-11-03 | $-0.77 | $221,640,000 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-11-04 | $-0.77 | $221,640,000 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-11-05 | $-0.77 | $221,640,000 | 2 / 4 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 1 Buy / Strong Buy · 3 Hold · 1 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 7–Nov 5 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 7, 2026–Nov 5, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.