Treace Medical Concepts, Inc. (TMCI)
NASDAQHealth CareMedical - DevicesSnapshot 2026-09-04
$4.81-1.43%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareMedical - DevicesSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · TMCI
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -65.7% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 6.0% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 71.7 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 87 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
TMCI — CEO transition
Dated 2026-04-09
Chief Commercial Officer — Gaetano M. Guglielmino: Mr. Gaetano M. Guglielmino is departing from the Company and his role will not be filled.
Why it matters: Earnings results will show how much money the company makes. They will also show how well the company runs its operations.
Watch forQ2 earnings show revenue growth or stabilization compared to Q1.
Also watch forQ2 earnings reveal further revenue decline compared to Q1.
Why it matters: Successful use would show market acceptance and growth for new products.
Supportive ifNews of high case volumes or surgeon use for the SuperBite™ system.
Worry ifLack of updates or poor adoption rates for the SuperBite™ system.
Why it matters: Hitting this revenue target would show recovery from the Q1 drop. It would back the annual guidance.
Supportive ifQ2 2026 revenue at or above $50 million shows a rebound.
Worry ifQ2 2026 revenue below $50 million shows ongoing weakness.
Why it matters: Higher surgeon adoption rates indicate growing market share and product acceptance. This is key for future revenue growth.
Supportive ifMore than 40% of surgeons adopt the new bunion products.
Worry ifSurgeon adoption rate drops back below 35%.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$299 on $10,000 · ±3.0% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $729 loss on $10,000 · 7.3% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $8,387 loss on $10,000 · 83.9% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: If the healthcare sector's revenue growth picks up, it may help Treace Medical's performance. This could indicate a better market environment.
Supportive ifHealthcare sector revenue growth returns to above 10% year over year.
Worry ifHealthcare sector revenue growth is slowing down. It is now below 10% year over year.
Why it matters: The earnings report will show how the company is doing. It will also hint at future plans.
Watch forThe earnings report shows a profit. It also beats what analysts expected.
Also watch forThe earnings report shows a loss. It also misses what analysts expected.
Why it matters: Staying in this range shows better efficiency and money management.
Supportive ifAdjusted EBITDA loss remains between $3 million and $5 million for the full year.
Worry ifAdjusted EBITDA loss exceeds $5 million for the full year.
Why it matters: The revenue guidance shows sales are stable. This shows management believes in growth.
Supportive ifManagement keeps the full-year 2026 revenue guidance at $204 million to $212 million.
Worry ifManagement cuts revenue guidance to less than $202 million.
Why it matters: Using less cash shows good financial habits. This could help gain investor trust.
Supportive ifYear-to-date cash usage reduces by at least 50% compared to the same period in 2025.
Worry ifCash use drops below 50% compared to last year.
Why it matters: A smaller net loss shows better efficiency. This could lead to making more money.
Supportive ifNet loss improves to less than $(15.9) million in Q3.
Worry ifNet loss worsens beyond $(18.0) million in Q3.