Treace Medical Concepts, Inc. (TMCI)
NASDAQHealth CareMedical - DevicesSnapshot 2026-11-05
$4.18-7.11%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareMedical - DevicesSnapshot 2026-11-05
QuarterlyIQ Insights · TMCI
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -68.7% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 6.9% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-05.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 75.5 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-05 · Compared with 43 industry peers
TMCI — CEO transition
Dated 2026-04-09
Chief Commercial Officer — Gaetano M. Guglielmino: Mr. Gaetano M. Guglielmino is departing from the Company and his role will not be filled.
Why it matters: More surgeon use of the new systems may support case growth and market share. Use rose from 35% to about 40%.
Supportive ifThe share of Lapiplasty surgeon users using one or more of the three new bunion systems rises above 40%.
Worry ifThat share stays at or below 40% in the next update, or falls below 40%.
Why it matters: The company is still losing money. Lower cash use could ease pressure on its $45.6M cash balance.
Supportive ifFull-year 2026 cash use is about 50% below 2025, as management targets.
Worry ifFull-year cash use falls less than 50% from 2025, or the company reports a rise in cash use.
Why it matters: Q2 revenue fell 4% year over year, but the company raised its 2026 revenue range. Q3 results test whether growth is improving.
Watch forQ3 revenue growth improves year over year, and management keeps full-year guidance at $204M-$212M or raises it.
Also watch forQ3 revenue falls short of the pace needed for $204M in 2026, or management cuts the $204M-$212M range.
Why it matters: Treace still reports losses. Its updated full-year range calls for a smaller loss than in 2025.
Watch forQ3 results and new full-year guidance show the adjusted EBITDA loss on track to reach $3M-$5M for 2026.
Also watch forManagement raises its expected 2026 adjusted EBITDA loss above $5M. Or the Q3 adjusted EBITDA loss grows from Q2's $3.5M.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$218 on $10,000 · ±2.2% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $770 loss on $10,000 · 7.7% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $8,080 loss on $10,000 · 80.8% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.