TransMedics Group, Inc. (TMDX)
NASDAQHealth CareMedical - DevicesSnapshot 2026-09-04
$89.98+3.45%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareMedical - DevicesSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · TMDX
Price, fair value, and the multiples that frame it on the same time axis. Scroll over the price chart to zoom.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots inline.
A consensus fair price across 10 valuation methods, at three horizons. As of 2026-09-04. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $90 TMDX trades at 62× p/e — 2.2× the 28× p/e peer median. The market is re-rating it beyond its own range; our $64 fair value is low-confidence here. Analysts target $65–$122. Note: our $64 fair value sits below the entire analyst range ($65–$122). Even valued only for durable growth at sustainable margins, it's worth about $117 — above today's price, so the premium reflects that growth case, not pure multiple expansion. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Score 100 = cheapest in the cohort, 0 = richest. Bars are filled left-to-right based on the peer-relative score (or PEG/self-history where shown).
Each method's implied share price per horizon. Provisional rows use a projected (historical-CAGR) growth input rather than analyst or management guidance.
| Method | Horizon | Est. price | Multiple | Per-share input | EPS source | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| analyst target | 12M | $85.00 | — | — | Analyst | high |
| dcf fcfe | 12M | $91.53 | — | — | Analyst | high |
| dcf fcff | 12M | $122.31 | — | — | Analyst | high |
| graham number | 12M | $20.38 | — | — | TTM | high |
| Peer P/FCF | 12M |
A “consensus-then vs. actual-now” overlay is on the way — what our valuation estimate said on a past date versus where the price actually landed.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
Around the middle on quality vs scored peers
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
$65.00 – $122.00 (median $85.00) · 8 analysts · as of 2026-08-05
Flags: expensive valuation, weak execution quality. Capped at elevated by the Mania regime.
For similar setups historically (n=2,301): about 43% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 77% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Looks more expensive than peers.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1, 2026-Q2
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
| $47.85 |
| 24.6 |
| 1.94 |
| TTM |
| high |
| Peer P/E | 12M | $38.17 | 18.7 | 2.04 | ntm analyst | high |
| Peer P/S | 12M | $48.34 | 2.9 | 16.42 | TTM | high |
| PEG | 12M | $101.70 | 70.1 | 1.45 | TTM | high |
| residual income | 12M | $14.33 | — | — | TTM | high |
| triangulated | 12M | $45.00 | 28.3 | 1.59 | Triangulated | high |
| Peer P/E | 3Y | $51.66 | 18.7 | 2.76 | Analyst | medium |
| Peer P/S | 3Y | $75.92 | 2.9 | 25.79 | guidance | medium |
| PEG | 3Y | $193.48 | 70.1 | 2.76 | Analyst | medium |
| Peer P/E | 5Y | $63.65 | 18.7 | 3.40 | Analyst | medium |
| Peer P/S | 5Y | $93.55 | 2.9 | 31.78 | guidance | medium |
| PEG | 5Y | $238.39 | 70.1 | 3.40 | Analyst | medium |