TransMedics Group, Inc. (TMDX)
NASDAQHealth CareMedical - DevicesSnapshot 2026-11-04
$72.76+8.05%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareMedical - DevicesSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · TMDX
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 12.7% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 26.2% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 13.4 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Worth watching into the next print: this name has been missing across recent quarters and is on a run of consecutive earnings misses. A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 29 industry peers
TMDX — CFO transition
Dated 2026-09-10
CFO — Gerardo Hernandez: The filing announces the appointment of a new external CFO to succeed the incumbent, indicating an orderly succession rather than a sudden loss of leadership.
Why it matters: Q2 revenue grew, but operating income fell 35% year over year. More margin loss would show that costs are rising faster than sales.
Worry ifQ3 operating margin falls below 12.5%, the Q2 2026 level.
Less concerning ifQ3 operating margin reaches 12.5% or higher as revenue grows and expense growth slows.
Why it matters: The company is spending more on these programs. A clear trial or product milestone would show what that spending has produced.
Supportive ifThe company names a trial start, enrollment milestone, or product launch date for OCS Kidney or Gen 3.0.
Worry ifThe company reports a delay, pause, or missed milestone for OCS Kidney or Gen 3.0.
Why it matters: Q2 revenue grew 21%, and management raised the guide's low end. Q3 results test whether that growth holds.
Watch forOn November 5, Q3 revenue growth stays near or above 21%, and management keeps the $737M-$757M 2026 guide.
Also watch forQ3 revenue growth falls below 21%, or management cuts the $737M-$757M guide.
Why it matters: Gross margin was 60% in Q2, down from 61% a year earlier. A further drop would add to pressure from costs and service mix.
Worry ifQ3 gross margin falls below 60%, with management citing service mix or product costs.
Less concerning ifQ3 gross margin rises above 60% as logistics savings offset service mix and product costs.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$185 on $10,000 · ±1.8% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $566 loss on $10,000 · 5.7% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $5,876 loss on $10,000 · 58.8% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.