TransMedics Group, Inc. (TMDX)
NASDAQHealth CareMedical - DevicesSnapshot 2026-09-04
$89.98+3.45%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareMedical - DevicesSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · TMDX
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 41.2% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 22.5% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 18.7 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Worth watching into the next print: this name has been missing across recent quarters and is on a run of consecutive earnings misses. A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 87 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
TMDX — earnings miss
Dated 2026-08-04
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On August 4, 2026, TransMedics Group, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing the Company’s financial results for the quarter ended June 30, 2026. A copy of this press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 and is incorporated herein by reference. The information in this Form 8-K (including Exhibit 99.1 attached hereto) is being furnished and shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 193…
Why it matters: A drop in operating cash flow shows cash generation issues. This can hurt growth plans.
Worry ifOperating cash flow drops below $24 million in Q3.
Less concerning ifIf operating cash flow is above $24 million in Q3, it is a good sign.
Why it matters: The earnings results will show if revenue growth is improving after the recent miss.
Watch forQ2 revenue growth is over 10% compared to last year. This shows strong recovery.
Also watch forQ2 revenue growth falls below 5% year over year, signaling ongoing struggles.
Why it matters: Going above this net income level shows strong performance and good cost control.
Supportive ifNet income for Q2 2026 exceeds $10 million.
Worry ifNet income for Q2 2026 falls below $7 million.
Why it matters: A drop in sector growth could affect TMDX's performance and outlook.
Worry ifSector revenue growth falls below the median of 10% year over year.
Less concerning ifSector revenue growth stays above 10%. This shows ongoing strength.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$225 on $10,000 · ±2.3% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $534 loss on $10,000 · 5.3% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $5,876 loss on $10,000 · 58.8% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Better gross margins show improved cost management. This is a key goal for management.
Supportive ifA gross margin over 60% shows good cost control. It also means more money.
Worry ifIf gross margin is below 60%, it shows ongoing cost problems.
Why it matters: Negative cash flow would raise concerns about financial health. Investors will watch this closely.
Worry ifCash flow from operations reported as negative in Q2.
Less concerning ifCash flow from operations remains positive in Q2.
Why it matters: A slowdown in revenue growth could signal challenges in maintaining momentum. Investors will want to see if the growth rate continues to decline.
Worry ifQ3 revenue growth below 20% year over year would confirm a slowdown.
Less concerning ifQ3 revenue growth of 20% or more year over year would indicate strong performance.
Why it matters: Better cash flow shows the company is managing its finances well.
Supportive ifCash flow from operations goes up by 15% from last quarter.
Worry ifCash flow from operations goes down or stays the same. This shows financial stress.
Why it matters: Costs above $90 million mean higher expenses. This can hurt profits and cash flow.
Worry ifCosts were above $90 million in Q2 2026.
Less concerning ifCosts were at or below $90 million in Q2 2026.
Why it matters: A slowdown in revenue growth could signal challenges in sustaining momentum. This would raise concerns about future performance.
Worry ifQ3 total revenue growth below 20% compared to Q3 2025.
Less concerning ifQ3 total revenue growth at or above 20% compared to Q3 2025.
Why it matters: Better gross margins show good cost control and efficiency. This can boost investor trust.
Supportive ifGross margin improves to above 60% in Q3 2026.
Worry ifGross margin remains below 60% in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: Stable cash flow shows better financial health and efficiency. This is key for funding growth.
Supportive ifCash flow from operations increases to above $30 million in Q3 2026.
Worry ifCash flow from operations stays below $30 million in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: Progress on the OCS Kidney program could drive future revenue growth. This is a key growth initiative for TransMedics.
Watch forNews about clinical trial results or partnerships for the OCS Kidney program.
Also watch forNo updates or delays in the OCS Kidney program announcements.