Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
TransMedics Group, Inc. (TMDX)
NASDAQHealth CareMedical - DevicesSnapshot 2026-11-04
$68.98-5.20%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareMedical - DevicesSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
2.28 → 2.26 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 8 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 8 to 8; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for TMDX yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Gross profit improves to at least $101M in 2026-Q1 | Gross profit improved from $88M to $101M in one year. | Improving | Gross profit falls below $88M in 2026-Q1 | Gross profit: $113.198M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $101M. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q2. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Aug 4, 2026113,198,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Nov 5, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a growth business with a healthcare-sector tailwind, rather than a stable, low-risk compounder. The long-term thesis is intact, but elevated risk and recent earnings misses make execution less predictable.
TMDX carries a 1.56-times valuation premium versus peers, and the evidence describes current pricing as justified rather than highly fragile. The expectations gap is negative, suggesting expectations may be ahead of what the model supports, though confidence in that assessment is medium.
Near-term revenue momentum is strong: second-quarter revenue grew 21% year over year, and management raised full-year 2026 revenue guidance. Margin progress is mixed, while operating cash flow and liquidity show progress. Near-term earnings risk is elevated, with recent misses and a CFO transition adding uncertainty.
The multi-year thesis depends on continued growth from greater OCS utilization and expanded logistics services, alongside better margin performance. A guidance cut after the recent raise would damage confidence, while continued strength from healthcare peers could support sector momentum. A weakening jobs trend could add pressure to cyclical healthcare businesses.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, TMDX combines strong revenue execution with elevated earnings and margin risks; the thesis remains intact, but confidence depends on consistent delivery. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| Cash flow from operations turned positive, rising to $24.5M in 2026-Q1. |
| Intact |
| Operating cash flow falls below $0 in 2026-Q1 |
Cash from operations: $17.309M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $24.5M. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q2. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Aug 4, 202617,309,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Revenue grows to about $742M in FY26 | TransMedics grows revenue about 23% yearly, reaching ~$742M in 2026. | Intact | Revenue falls below $727M in FY26 | Revenue: $189.948M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: ~$742M. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 4, 2026189,948,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 2 of 3 supplied quarters. Management reported: “2026 Financial Outlook TransMedics is raising the low end of its full-year 2026 revenue guidance to a range of $737 million to $757 million.” “This guidance excludes any revenue attributable to the recent strategic investment in PAD Aviation service GmbH, assumes no incremental revenue from the ENHANCE Part B and DENOVO clinical trials, and represents approximately 22% to 25% growth compared to the company’s prior year revenue.” Revenue was $189.948 million in 2026-Q2. Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$2.77 → $2.26 · observed estimates
$0.87B → $0.87B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $2.77 | $867,799,380 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-07-25 | $2.86 | $867,799,380 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-07-26 | $2.86 | $867,799,380 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-07-27 | $2.86 | $867,799,380 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-07-28 | $2.86 | $867,799,380 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-07-29 | $3.08 | $867,845,909 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-07-30 | $2.86 | $867,799,380 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-07-31 | $3.08 | $867,845,909 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-08-01 | $3.08 | $867,845,909 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-08-02 | $2.87 | $867,077,300 | 10 / 12 |
| 2026-08-03 | $3.07 | $867,119,953 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-08-04 | $2.87 | $867,077,300 | 10 / 12 |
| 2026-08-05 | $2.87 | $867,077,300 | 10 / 12 |
| 2026-08-06 | $3.07 | $867,119,953 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-08-08 | $2.38 | $874,406,912 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-08-09 | $2.37 | $874,396,320 | 10 / 12 |
| 2026-08-10 | $2.37 | $874,396,320 | 10 / 12 |
| 2026-08-12 | $2.38 | $874,406,912 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-08-13 | $2.38 | $874,406,912 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-08-14 | $2.38 | $874,406,912 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-08-15 | $2.38 | $874,406,912 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-08-16 | $2.38 | $874,406,912 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-08-17 | $2.38 | $874,406,912 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-08-18 | $2.38 | $874,406,912 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-08-19 | $2.38 | $874,406,912 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-08-20 | $2.32 | $874,749,495 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-08-21 | $2.32 | $874,749,495 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-08-22 | $2.32 | $874,749,495 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-08-23 | $2.30 | $874,752,495 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-08-24 | $2.30 | $874,752,495 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-08-25 | $2.30 | $874,752,495 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-08-26 | $2.30 | $874,752,495 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-08-27 | $2.30 | $874,752,495 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-08-28 | $2.30 | $874,752,495 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-08-29 | $2.30 | $874,752,495 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-08-30 | $2.30 | $874,752,495 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-08-31 | $2.30 | $874,752,495 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-09-01 | $2.30 | $874,752,495 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-09-02 | $2.30 | $874,752,495 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-09-03 | $2.30 | $874,754,245 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-09-04 | $2.30 | $874,754,245 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-09-05 | $2.30 | $874,754,245 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-09-06 | $2.30 | $874,754,245 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-09-07 | $2.30 | $874,754,245 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-09-08 | $2.30 | $874,754,245 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-09-09 | $2.30 | $874,754,245 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-09-10 | $2.30 | $874,754,245 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-09-11 | $2.30 | $874,751,245 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-09-12 | $2.30 | $874,745,137 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-09-13 | $2.30 | $874,745,137 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-09-14 | $2.30 | $874,745,137 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-09-15 | $2.30 | $874,745,137 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-09-16 | $2.30 | $874,745,137 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-09-17 | $2.30 | $874,745,137 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-09-18 | $2.30 | $874,745,137 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-09-19 | $2.30 | $874,745,137 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-09-20 | $2.30 | $874,745,137 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-09-21 | $2.30 | $874,745,137 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-09-22 | $2.30 | $874,745,137 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-09-23 | $2.28 | $874,413,995 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-09-24 | $2.28 | $874,413,995 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-09-25 | $2.28 | $874,413,995 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-09-26 | $2.28 | $874,413,995 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-09-27 | $2.28 | $874,413,995 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-09-28 | $2.28 | $874,413,995 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-09-29 | $2.28 | $874,413,995 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-09-30 | $2.28 | $874,413,995 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-10-01 | $2.28 | $874,413,995 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-10-02 | $2.28 | $874,413,995 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-10-03 | $2.28 | $874,413,995 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-10-04 | $2.28 | $874,417,545 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-10-05 | $2.28 | $874,417,545 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-10-06 | $2.28 | $874,417,545 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-10-07 | $2.27 | $874,417,545 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-10-08 | $2.26 | $874,417,545 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-10-09 | $2.26 | $874,417,545 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-10-10 | $2.26 | $874,709,212 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-10-11 | $2.26 | $874,709,212 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-10-12 | $2.26 | $874,709,212 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-10-13 | $2.26 | $874,709,212 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-10-14 | $2.26 | $874,659,212 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-10-15 | $2.26 | $874,659,212 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-10-16 | $2.26 | $874,659,212 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-10-17 | $2.26 | $874,659,212 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-10-18 | $2.26 | $874,659,212 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-10-19 | $2.26 | $874,659,212 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-10-20 | $2.26 | $874,659,212 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-10-21 | $2.26 | $874,659,212 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-10-22 | $2.26 | $874,659,212 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-10-23 | $2.26 | $874,659,212 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-10-24 | $2.26 | $874,659,212 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-10-25 | $2.26 | $874,659,212 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-10-26 | $2.26 | $874,659,212 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-10-27 | $2.26 | $874,659,212 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-10-28 | $2.26 | $874,700,879 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-10-29 | $2.26 | $874,700,879 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-10-30 | $2.26 | $874,700,879 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-10-31 | $2.26 | $874,700,879 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-11-01 | $2.26 | $874,700,879 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-11-02 | $2.26 | $874,700,879 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-11-03 | $2.26 | $874,659,212 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-11-04 | $2.26 | $874,659,212 | 8 / 9 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 9 Buy / Strong Buy · 4 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 1 recorded
0 raises · 1 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.