Taylor Morrison (TMHC)
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryResidential ConstructionSnapshot 2026-09-04
$72.45-0.03%
Close 2026-07-23 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryResidential ConstructionSnapshot 2026-09-04
Intact: The reason to own it still holds.
Berkshire Hathaway is buying Taylor Morrison for $6.8 billion. This shows strong confidence in the housing market. Taylor Morrison has beaten earnings estimates recently. The stock trades cheap with a P/E of 10.16 versus peers at 17.27.
Housing demand may weaken, causing revenue to fall. Earnings could drop below estimates. The acquisition might face delays or regulatory issues.
The price is about 9% below our fair value near $79. Analysts expect about 4% revenue decline next year. Our fair value is 8% above the Street median.
Breaks if: Acquisition fails or is significantly delayed past 2026
Breaks if: EPS falls below $6.41 in FY27
Breaks if: YoY revenue growth falls below -4% in FY27
This is not a price target or investment advice.
A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.
This investment represents a turnaround story with elements of a durable compounder. The current thesis state is intact, supported by strong recent financial performance, but management quality and execution remain volatile.
The market appears to price TMHC as cheap compared to its peers, with a slight expectations gap. However, the fragile earnings quality suggests that the market is cautious about potential execution issues.
Fundamentals may remain strong in the near term, given the recent financial performance. However, the fragile earnings quality and volatile management could pose risks to consistency.
The thesis hinges on management's ability to execute post-merger integration and navigate sector headwinds. Additionally, external factors like inflation and the performance of sector bellwethers will be critical for TMHC's trajectory.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Yes, our read has strengthened. The latest earnings beat supports the positive outlook. The completion of the merger with Berkshire Hathaway reinforces confidence in the company's strategy. There are no new threats impacting the thesis.
as of 2026-09-04
Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Breaks if: P/E rises above 17.27 without earnings growth
Over the next 1 to 3 years, TMHC's performance will depend on effective management and external market conditions. Not investment advice.