Taylor Morrison (TMHC)
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryResidential ConstructionSnapshot 2026-09-04
$72.45-0.03%
Close 2026-07-23 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryResidential ConstructionSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · TMHC
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -10.9% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | -4.2% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 6.7 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 17 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
TMHC — M&A activity
Dated 2026-07-24
by reference. At the Effective Time, a change of control of TMHC occurred. Merger Sub merged with and into TMHC, the separate corporate existence of Merger Sub ceased, and TMHC continued as the Surviving Corporation in the Merger as a wholly owned subsidiary of Parent.
Why it matters: Ongoing backlog growth shows strong future revenue and demand.
Supportive ifBacklog at the end of Q2 2026 exceeds 3,000 homes.
Worry ifBacklog falls below 3,000 homes at the end of Q2 2026.
Why it matters: A lower SG&A ratio means better cost control. It shows more efficiency.
Supportive ifSG&A as a percentage of home closings revenue falls below mid-10% range.
Worry ifSG&A as a percentage of home closings revenue stays above mid-10% range.
Why it matters: Consumer confidence affects how many homes people want to buy.
Watch forThe consumer confidence index goes above 100 in the next reports.
Also watch forThe consumer confidence index drops below 90 in the next reports.
Why it matters: Sales orders are a key indicator of demand. A decline could signal ongoing market weakness.
Worry ifNet sales orders drop below 2,500 homes in Q2 2026.
Less concerning ifNet sales orders exceed 2,600 homes in Q2 2026.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$44 on $10,000 · ±0.4% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $276 loss on $10,000 · 2.8% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,380 loss on $10,000 · 23.8% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: A higher cancellation rate may show weaker demand or buyer confidence problems.
Worry ifCancellation rate is over 10% of all orders.
Less concerning ifCancellation rate remains at or below 10% of gross orders.
Why it matters: A growing backlog shows strong future sales. A decline may mean less demand.
Watch forBacklog increases from 3,465 homes in Q1 2026.
Also watch forBacklog decreases from 3,465 homes in Q1 2026.
Why it matters: Hitting this target shows commitment to returning value to shareholders. It reflects management's confidence in cash flow.
Supportive ifTotal share repurchases reach or exceed $400 million.
Worry ifShare buybacks are much lower than $400 million.
Why it matters: Hitting the goal of 2,500 to 2,600 closings shows strong demand after the merger.
Supportive ifHome closings for Q2 2026 reported between 2,500 and 2,600.
Worry ifHome closings fall below 2,500 in Q2 2026.
Why it matters: Higher cancellation rates may show buyer hesitation. This can affect future sales.
Worry ifCancellation rates exceed 10% of gross orders in Q2 2026.
Less concerning ifCancellation rates remain below 10% of gross orders in Q2 2026.
Why it matters: A bigger backlog shows strong future demand and good sales strategies.
Supportive ifBacklog growth exceeds 23% sequentially from Q1 2026.
Worry ifBacklog growth is less than 23% sequentially from Q1 2026.
Why it matters: A decline in revenue signals ongoing challenges in the housing market. It may indicate weaker demand or pricing pressures.
Worry ifQ2 home closings revenue reported below $1.3 billion.
Less concerning ifQ2 home closings revenue exceeds $1.3 billion.
Why it matters: If the merger works, it could improve operations and market position.
Supportive ifLook for positive changes or growth after the merger announcement.
Worry ifWatch for negative changes or drops in key metrics after the merger.
Why it matters: A drop in revenue growth signals a possible shift in the sector's growth phase.
Worry ifRevenue growth reported below the median for the last two quarters.
Less concerning ifRevenue growth remains above the median for the last two quarters.
Why it matters: A rise in average sales price above $575,000 shows pricing power and demand strength.
Supportive ifAverage sales price in Q2 2026 exceeds $575,000.
Worry ifAverage sales price in Q2 2026 falls below $575,000.