Taylor Morrison (TMHC)
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryResidential ConstructionSnapshot 2026-11-05
$72.45-0.03%
Close 2026-07-23 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryResidential ConstructionSnapshot 2026-11-05
QuarterlyIQ Insights · TMHC
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -10.9% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | -4.2% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-05.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 6.7 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-05 · Compared with 15 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
TMHC — M&A activity
Dated 2026-07-24
by reference. At the Effective Time, a change of control of TMHC occurred. Merger Sub merged with and into TMHC, the separate corporate existence of Merger Sub ceased, and TMHC continued as the Surviving Corporation in the Merger as a wholly owned subsidiary of Parent.
Why it matters: The sector report says revenue is shrinking, but recent signals hint that the decline may be changing. Retail sales are due November 17.
Watch forThe November 17 Retail Sales report shows growth from the prior month. The next sector update says revenue growth has turned positive.
Also watch forThe November 17 Retail Sales report shows a drop from the prior month and the next sector update still says revenue is shrinking.
Why it matters: The merger closed in July, and TMHC became a wholly owned subsidiary. Watch for results that show how the business performs under Berkshire Hathaway.
Watch forThe first filing after the merger reports home closings, margins, and sales orders. Results meet or exceed Q1 2026 levels: 2,268 closings and 20.0% reported gross margin.
Also watch forThe first filing after the merger reports fewer closings or a lower gross margin than in Q1 2026. Or, it lacks enough data to assess the homebuilding business.
Why it matters: More active communities can help support sales and closings. TMHC ended Q1 with 356 active selling communities.
Supportive ifA company update reports 365 to 370 active communities by year-end 2026. New openings show strong sales.
Worry ifA company update reports fewer than 365 active communities by year-end. Or it says planned openings lack strong sales.
Why it matters: Q1 reported gross margin was 20.0%, down from 24.0% a year earlier. A lower Q2 result would show further pressure.
Worry ifQ2 reported home closings gross margin is below 20%.
Less concerning ifQ2 reported home closings gross margin is 20% or higher. This matches management’s stated floor.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$44 on $10,000 · ±0.4% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $290 loss on $10,000 · 2.9% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,043 loss on $10,000 · 20.4% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Management reaffirmed its full-year closing target even as Q1 closings fell 26% year over year. Later reports will test that plan.
Watch forA later company update keeps full-year closings near 11,000. Year-to-date closings also keep the company on pace for that total.
Also watch forA company update cuts the 11,000 closing target, or reported closings fall short of the pace needed to reach it.