Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Thermo Fisher Scientific (TMO)
NYSEHealth CareMedical - Diagnostics & ResearchSnapshot 2026-11-05
$676.94-4.14%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEHealth CareMedical - Diagnostics & ResearchSnapshot 2026-11-05
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
27.42 → 27.74 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 16 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 6, 2026 to Nov 5, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 16 to 16; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for TMO yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Continue share buyback program | A supporting condition in Thermo Fisher Scientific's published investment case. The stated target is Ongoing buyback announcements and execution. | Intact | No buyback program announced or executed in next year | Qualitative condition This condition has no defined numerical measure. Nov 5, 2026Last status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
TMO is a large healthcare business with a growth-focused long-term thesis, rather than a turnaround case. The thesis is intact, with recent financial performance in the top half of its industry, though confidence in the evidence is medium.
The valuation evidence describes TMO as cheap versus peers, with a justified priced-in tag and low fragility. The expectations gap is modest, so the evidence does not point to expectations being especially stretched.
In the near term, recent results are strong: revenue rose to $12.14 billion in Q3 2026, with 6% organic revenue growth, which measures growth excluding certain effects such as acquisitions and currency changes. A recent earnings beat and improving company momentum support the trajectory, but a prior deep miss and the most recent-quarter miss remain relevant risks.
Over the next few quarters, the thesis hinges on continued execution and whether guidance holds; a guidance cut would be a meaningful negative. Weaker jobs data could deepen recession concerns, while continued earnings strength and higher guidance from sector peers could support the healthcare backdrop.
For the next 1 to 3 years, TMO’s growth case remains intact, but its progress depends on sustaining organic growth and navigating economic and execution risks. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| Cash from operations rose from $723 million to $1.192 billion in one year. |
| Intact |
| Quarterly cash from operations falls below $1 billion |
Cash from operations: $2.55B FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >= $1.2 billion quarterly cash from operations. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Oct 30, 20262,550,000,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Maintain EPS near $25 in FY26 | Profit margins stay solid with EPS near $25 in 2026. | Intact | EPS falls below $23 next year | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Sustain revenue growth near 7% annually | A primary condition in Thermo Fisher Scientific's published investment case. The stated target is >=7% YoY revenue growth. | Intact | YoY revenue growth falls below 5% next year | Revenue growth: 9.13% FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >=7% YoY revenue growth. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Oct 30, 20269.126056 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$27.26 → $27.74 · observed estimates
$50.32B → $50.57B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $27.26 | $50,320,590,570 | 26 / 25 |
| 2026-07-25 | $27.31 | $50,260,723,996 | 15 / 20 |
| 2026-07-26 | $27.43 | $50,259,072,700 | 26 / 24 |
| 2026-07-27 | $27.38 | $50,277,451,482 | 15 / 20 |
| 2026-07-28 | $27.38 | $50,277,451,482 | 15 / 20 |
| 2026-07-29 | $27.38 | $50,277,451,482 | 15 / 20 |
| 2026-07-30 | $27.49 | $50,304,286,130 | 27 / 25 |
| 2026-07-31 | $27.40 | $50,322,781,140 | 16 / 20 |
| 2026-08-01 | $27.40 | $50,322,781,140 | 16 / 20 |
| 2026-08-02 | $27.51 | $50,323,327,540 | 27 / 25 |
| 2026-08-03 | $27.40 | $50,308,768,842 | 16 / 20 |
| 2026-08-04 | $27.40 | $50,308,768,842 | 16 / 20 |
| 2026-08-05 | $27.40 | $50,308,768,842 | 16 / 20 |
| 2026-08-06 | $27.40 | $50,308,768,842 | 16 / 20 |
| 2026-08-08 | $27.51 | $50,323,327,540 | 27 / 25 |
| 2026-08-09 | $27.51 | $50,323,327,540 | 27 / 25 |
| 2026-08-10 | $27.51 | $50,323,327,540 | 27 / 25 |
| 2026-08-12 | $27.40 | $50,308,768,842 | 16 / 20 |
| 2026-08-13 | $27.40 | $50,308,768,842 | 16 / 20 |
| 2026-08-14 | $27.40 | $50,308,768,842 | 16 / 20 |
| 2026-08-15 | $27.40 | $50,308,768,842 | 16 / 20 |
| 2026-08-16 | $27.40 | $50,308,768,842 | 16 / 20 |
| 2026-08-17 | $27.40 | $50,308,768,842 | 16 / 20 |
| 2026-08-18 | $27.40 | $50,308,768,842 | 16 / 20 |
| 2026-08-19 | $27.40 | $50,308,768,842 | 16 / 20 |
| 2026-08-20 | $27.42 | $50,312,475,470 | 16 / 20 |
| 2026-08-21 | $27.42 | $50,312,475,470 | 16 / 20 |
| 2026-08-22 | $27.42 | $50,312,475,470 | 16 / 20 |
| 2026-08-23 | $27.42 | $50,312,475,470 | 16 / 20 |
| 2026-08-24 | $27.42 | $50,312,475,470 | 16 / 20 |
| 2026-08-25 | $27.42 | $50,312,475,470 | 16 / 20 |
| 2026-08-26 | $27.42 | $50,312,475,470 | 16 / 20 |
| 2026-08-27 | $27.42 | $50,312,475,470 | 16 / 20 |
| 2026-08-28 | $27.42 | $50,312,475,470 | 16 / 20 |
| 2026-08-29 | $27.42 | $50,312,464,470 | 16 / 20 |
| 2026-08-30 | $27.42 | $50,312,464,470 | 16 / 20 |
| 2026-08-31 | $27.42 | $50,312,464,470 | 16 / 20 |
| 2026-09-01 | $27.42 | $50,312,464,470 | 16 / 20 |
| 2026-09-02 | $27.40 | $50,296,460,892 | 16 / 20 |
| 2026-09-03 | $27.40 | $50,296,460,892 | 16 / 20 |
| 2026-09-04 | $27.40 | $50,322,004,422 | 16 / 20 |
| 2026-09-05 | $27.40 | $50,322,004,422 | 16 / 20 |
| 2026-09-06 | $27.40 | $50,322,004,422 | 16 / 20 |
| 2026-09-07 | $27.40 | $50,322,004,422 | 16 / 20 |
| 2026-09-08 | $27.40 | $50,322,004,422 | 16 / 20 |
| 2026-09-09 | $27.40 | $50,322,004,422 | 16 / 20 |
| 2026-09-10 | $27.40 | $50,322,004,422 | 16 / 20 |
| 2026-09-11 | $27.41 | $50,330,126,972 | 16 / 20 |
| 2026-09-12 | $27.41 | $50,330,126,972 | 16 / 20 |
| 2026-09-13 | $27.41 | $50,330,126,972 | 16 / 20 |
| 2026-09-14 | $27.41 | $50,330,126,972 | 16 / 20 |
| 2026-09-15 | $27.41 | $50,330,126,972 | 16 / 20 |
| 2026-09-16 | $27.41 | $50,330,126,972 | 16 / 20 |
| 2026-09-17 | $27.41 | $50,330,126,972 | 16 / 20 |
| 2026-09-18 | $27.41 | $50,330,126,972 | 16 / 20 |
| 2026-09-19 | $27.41 | $50,330,126,972 | 16 / 20 |
| 2026-09-20 | $27.41 | $50,330,126,972 | 16 / 20 |
| 2026-09-21 | $27.41 | $50,330,126,972 | 16 / 20 |
| 2026-09-22 | $27.41 | $50,330,126,972 | 16 / 20 |
| 2026-09-23 | $27.42 | $50,339,129,492 | 16 / 20 |
| 2026-09-24 | $27.42 | $50,339,129,492 | 16 / 20 |
| 2026-09-25 | $27.42 | $50,339,129,492 | 16 / 20 |
| 2026-09-26 | $27.42 | $50,339,129,492 | 16 / 20 |
| 2026-09-27 | $27.42 | $50,339,129,492 | 16 / 20 |
| 2026-09-28 | $27.42 | $50,339,129,492 | 16 / 20 |
| 2026-09-29 | $27.42 | $50,339,129,492 | 16 / 20 |
| 2026-09-30 | $27.42 | $50,339,129,492 | 16 / 20 |
| 2026-10-01 | $27.42 | $50,339,129,492 | 16 / 20 |
| 2026-10-02 | $27.42 | $50,327,176,554 | 16 / 20 |
| 2026-10-03 | $27.42 | $50,327,169,252 | 16 / 20 |
| 2026-10-04 | $27.42 | $50,327,169,252 | 16 / 20 |
| 2026-10-05 | $27.42 | $50,327,169,252 | 16 / 20 |
| 2026-10-06 | $27.42 | $50,327,169,252 | 16 / 20 |
| 2026-10-07 | $27.43 | $50,332,252,585 | 16 / 20 |
| 2026-10-08 | $27.44 | $50,332,252,585 | 16 / 20 |
| 2026-10-09 | $27.45 | $50,347,102,404 | 16 / 20 |
| 2026-10-10 | $27.45 | $50,347,102,404 | 16 / 20 |
| 2026-10-11 | $27.45 | $50,347,102,404 | 16 / 20 |
| 2026-10-12 | $27.45 | $50,347,102,404 | 16 / 20 |
| 2026-10-13 | $27.45 | $50,349,098,191 | 16 / 20 |
| 2026-10-14 | $27.45 | $50,349,098,191 | 16 / 20 |
| 2026-10-15 | $27.49 | $50,349,648,650 | 16 / 20 |
| 2026-10-16 | $27.49 | $50,351,317,393 | 16 / 20 |
| 2026-10-17 | $27.49 | $50,351,317,393 | 16 / 20 |
| 2026-10-18 | $27.50 | $50,367,187,390 | 16 / 20 |
| 2026-10-19 | $27.50 | $50,367,187,390 | 16 / 20 |
| 2026-10-20 | $27.50 | $50,367,187,390 | 16 / 20 |
| 2026-10-21 | $27.50 | $50,367,187,390 | 16 / 20 |
| 2026-10-22 | $27.58 | $50,472,521,486 | 16 / 20 |
| 2026-10-23 | $27.64 | $50,523,746,486 | 16 / 20 |
| 2026-10-24 | $27.52 | $50,558,548,682 | 16 / 19 |
| 2026-10-25 | $27.69 | $50,558,548,682 | 16 / 19 |
| 2026-10-26 | $27.69 | $50,558,548,682 | 16 / 19 |
| 2026-10-27 | $27.69 | $50,558,548,682 | 16 / 19 |
| 2026-10-28 | $27.71 | $50,558,548,682 | 16 / 19 |
| 2026-10-29 | $27.71 | $50,558,548,682 | 16 / 19 |
| 2026-10-30 | $27.71 | $50,558,548,682 | 16 / 19 |
| 2026-10-31 | $27.73 | $50,558,548,682 | 16 / 19 |
| 2026-11-01 | $27.73 | $50,558,548,531 | 16 / 19 |
| 2026-11-02 | $27.73 | $50,558,548,531 | 16 / 19 |
| 2026-11-03 | $27.74 | $50,565,428,531 | 16 / 19 |
| 2026-11-04 | $27.74 | $50,565,428,531 | 16 / 19 |
| 2026-11-05 | $27.74 | $50,565,428,531 | 16 / 19 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 23 Buy / Strong Buy · 3 Hold · 1 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 7–Nov 5 · 10 recorded
4 raises · 1 cuts · 0 unchanged · 3 without a comparable prior
Oct 7, 2026–Nov 5, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.