Thermo Fisher Scientific (TMO)
NYSEHealth CareMedical - Diagnostics & ResearchSnapshot 2026-09-04
$613.78-0.75%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEHealth CareMedical - Diagnostics & ResearchSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · TMO
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 9.0% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 6.4% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 2.6 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 32 industry peers
TMO — CEO transition
Dated 2026-01-12
Executive Vice President and Chief Operating Officer — Michel Lagarde: Mr. Lagarde is leaving the company to pursue other opportunities.
Why it matters: Successful new products can drive revenue growth and strengthen market position.
Supportive ifManagement says they launched new products that are making good sales.
Worry ifNew product launches fail to gain traction or generate expected sales.
Why it matters: Strong revenue growth shows that demand is steady. It also shows good execution of the growth plan.
Supportive ifQ3 revenue growth of 10% or more compared to Q3 2025.
Worry ifQ3 revenue growth drops below 6% year over year.
Why it matters: New products can boost sales and improve market position. This shows good innovation.
Watch forRevenue from new products launched exceeds $500 million in the next quarter.
Also watch forRevenue from new products launched is below $200 million in the next quarter.
Why it matters: A drop below 5% shows slower growth. This could hurt investor confidence.
Worry ifQ3 revenue growth prints below 5% year over year.
Less concerning ifQ3 revenue growth remains above 5% year over year.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$119 on $10,000 · ±1.2% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $246 loss on $10,000 · 2.5% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,138 loss on $10,000 · 31.4% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Steady cash growth from operations helps with investments. It also supports returns to shareholders.
Supportive ifCash from operations exceeds $1.5 billion in Q2 2026.
Worry ifCash from operations falls below $1 billion in Q2 2026.
Why it matters: A buyback program shows management's trust in the company's value and future.
Supportive ifThermo Fisher announces a share buyback program of at least $3 billion.
Worry ifNo share buyback program is announced by the end of Q3 2026.
Why it matters: Seeing benefits will show the value of the Clario acquisition.
Supportive ifThermo Fisher expects $175 million in adjusted income. This is from Clario benefits by year 5.
Worry ifSynergies are reported below $100 million by year 5.
Why it matters: Completing the acquisition would show progress in Thermo Fisher's growth strategy. It could boost future revenue.
Supportive ifA press release will confirm that the Clario Holdings acquisition is complete.
Worry ifThere may be more delays or issues with finalizing the acquisition.
Why it matters: More buybacks show confidence in the company's finances. It also shows a commitment to returning capital.
Supportive ifAnnouncement of a new share buyback program or increase in existing buyback post-Q3.
Worry ifNo announcements of share buybacks or a reduction in the buyback program.
Why it matters: Steady organic growth shows strong demand and good performance in key markets.
Supportive ifOrganic revenue growth exceeds 5% in Q3 results.
Worry ifOrganic revenue growth falls below 3% in Q3 results.
Why it matters: More buybacks can show that management believes in the company's value and future.
Supportive ifManagement reports share buybacks over $1 billion in Q3.
Worry ifManagement reduces or halts share buybacks in Q3.
Why it matters: New products can boost future sales. Successful launches show innovation and market strength.
Supportive ifManagement announces at least two new product launches in Q3.
Worry ifNo new product launches are announced in Q3.
Why it matters: Clario's results will show how well the recent purchase is doing.
Supportive ifClario contributes at least $0.45 to adjusted EPS in Q3.
Worry ifClario contributes less than $0.30 to adjusted EPS in Q3.
Why it matters: New guidance will show expected revenue and earnings growth. This follows recent purchases.
Watch forManagement raises the 2026 revenue guidance to more than $45 billion.
Also watch forManagement lowers the 2026 revenue guidance to less than $43 billion.
Why it matters: New products can boost future sales and improve market position.
Watch forAt least two new important products will launch at upcoming conferences.
Also watch forNo new major products will launch at upcoming conferences.