Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Tandem Diabetes Care (TNDM)
NASDAQHealth CareMedical - DevicesSnapshot 2026-11-04
$19.05+7.93%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareMedical - DevicesSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
0.14 → 0.13 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 17 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 16 to 17; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for TNDM yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Positive cash from operations of at least $11 million quarterly | Cash from operations turned positive to $11.1 million in Q1 2026. | Improving | Cash from operations falls below zero for two consecutive quarters | Cash from operations: $-34.63M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $11 million. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Aug 6, 2026-34,630,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a growth-oriented medical-device business, not yet a proven profitable compounder. Its long-term thesis is intact, with recent execution supporting growth and better margins, but profitability remains unproven.
The evidence describes TNDM as cheap versus peers, while also showing that its valuation carries a 41% premium versus peers. The model has low confidence, and the negative expectations gap suggests market assumptions may be difficult to meet; no evidence specifies exactly what growth or profit level is already assumed.
Near-term results show progress: revenue rose from $234.4 million in 2025-Q1 to $254.6 million in 2026-Q2, while pump shipments exceeded 33,000 in 2026-Q2. Gross margin improved and the operating loss margin narrowed, but the company remains loss-making; guidance was reaffirmed on 2026-08-06, and a future cut would be a meaningful risk.
Over the next few quarters, the thesis depends on continued revenue and pump-shipment growth, further margin improvement, and stronger cash generation. A guidance cut or worsening employment data could weigh on the business outlook, while continued strong results and guidance from healthcare peers could support the sector backdrop.
For the next 1 to 3 years, TNDM’s long-term thesis has support from improving operating results, but it still depends on turning that progress into sustained profitability. The evidence is mixed, and valuation-model confidence is low. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| Gross margin improved to 55% and is guided to 56.5% for 2026. |
| Intact |
| Gross margin falls below 53% in FY26 |
Gross margin: 56.87% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: 56.5%. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 6, 202656.874607 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 3 of 3 supplied quarters. Management reported: “Gross margin was 57%, compared to 52%.” ““We remain committed to improving margins and profitability during this transition that positions Tandem for accelerated sales growth in 2027 and beyond.”” Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Annual revenue grows to about $1.075 billion | A primary condition in Tandem Diabetes Care's published investment case. The stated target is ~$1.075B. | Intact | Annual revenue falls below $1.0 billion in FY26 | Revenue: $254.56M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: ~$1.075B. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 6, 2026254,560,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 3 of 3 supplied quarters. Management reported: “Gross margin was 57%, compared to 52%.” “3 Exhibit 99.1 2026 Financial Guidance “In 2026, our goal is to expand the worldwide market by delivering double-digit pump shipment growth.” Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Pump shipments grow about 10-11% annually | The company is expanding internationally and increasing pump shipments as planned. | Broken | Shipment growth falls below 5% in FY26 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 3 of 3 supplied quarters. Management reported: “Gross margin was 57%, compared to 52%.” “3 Exhibit 99.1 2026 Financial Guidance “In 2026, our goal is to expand the worldwide market by delivering double-digit pump shipment growth.” Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$0.11 → $0.13 · observed estimates
$1.21B → $1.21B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $0.11 | $1,206,554,110 | 18 / 22 |
| 2026-07-25 | $0.11 | $1,206,554,110 | 18 / 22 |
| 2026-07-26 | $0.11 | $1,206,554,110 | 18 / 22 |
| 2026-07-27 | $0.11 | $1,206,554,110 | 18 / 22 |
| 2026-07-28 | $0.11 | $1,206,554,110 | 18 / 22 |
| 2026-07-29 | $0.13 | $1,206,778,258 | 14 / 17 |
| 2026-07-30 | $0.11 | $1,205,859,400 | 19 / 23 |
| 2026-07-31 | $0.13 | $1,206,006,711 | 15 / 17 |
| 2026-08-01 | $0.13 | $1,206,006,711 | 15 / 17 |
| 2026-08-02 | $0.11 | $1,205,859,400 | 19 / 23 |
| 2026-08-03 | $0.13 | $1,206,006,711 | 15 / 17 |
| 2026-08-04 | $0.11 | $1,205,859,400 | 19 / 23 |
| 2026-08-05 | $0.11 | $1,208,144,050 | 19 / 23 |
| 2026-08-06 | $0.13 | $1,206,006,711 | 15 / 17 |
| 2026-08-08 | $0.12 | $1,205,844,570 | 13 / 23 |
| 2026-08-09 | $0.12 | $1,205,844,570 | 13 / 23 |
| 2026-08-10 | $0.13 | $1,206,006,711 | 15 / 17 |
| 2026-08-12 | $0.18 | $1,205,019,620 | 19 / 23 |
| 2026-08-13 | $0.13 | $1,206,006,711 | 15 / 17 |
| 2026-08-14 | $0.13 | $1,206,006,711 | 15 / 17 |
| 2026-08-15 | $0.13 | $1,206,006,711 | 15 / 17 |
| 2026-08-16 | $0.13 | $1,206,006,711 | 15 / 17 |
| 2026-08-17 | $0.13 | $1,206,006,711 | 15 / 17 |
| 2026-08-18 | $0.13 | $1,206,006,711 | 15 / 17 |
| 2026-08-19 | $0.13 | $1,206,006,711 | 15 / 17 |
| 2026-08-20 | $0.14 | $1,205,330,573 | 15 / 17 |
| 2026-08-21 | $0.14 | $1,205,330,573 | 15 / 17 |
| 2026-08-22 | $0.14 | $1,205,674,952 | 15 / 17 |
| 2026-08-23 | $0.14 | $1,205,674,952 | 16 / 18 |
| 2026-08-24 | $0.14 | $1,205,674,952 | 16 / 18 |
| 2026-08-25 | $0.14 | $1,205,674,952 | 16 / 18 |
| 2026-08-26 | $0.14 | $1,205,674,952 | 16 / 18 |
| 2026-08-27 | $0.14 | $1,205,674,952 | 16 / 18 |
| 2026-08-28 | $0.14 | $1,205,674,952 | 16 / 18 |
| 2026-08-29 | $0.14 | $1,205,674,952 | 16 / 18 |
| 2026-08-30 | $0.14 | $1,205,674,952 | 16 / 18 |
| 2026-08-31 | $0.14 | $1,205,674,952 | 16 / 18 |
| 2026-09-01 | $0.14 | $1,205,674,952 | 16 / 18 |
| 2026-09-02 | $0.14 | $1,205,674,952 | 16 / 18 |
| 2026-09-03 | $0.14 | $1,205,674,952 | 16 / 18 |
| 2026-09-04 | $0.14 | $1,205,674,952 | 16 / 18 |
| 2026-09-05 | $0.14 | $1,205,674,952 | 16 / 18 |
| 2026-09-06 | $0.14 | $1,205,674,952 | 16 / 18 |
| 2026-09-07 | $0.14 | $1,205,674,952 | 16 / 18 |
| 2026-09-08 | $0.14 | $1,205,674,952 | 16 / 18 |
| 2026-09-09 | $0.14 | $1,205,674,952 | 16 / 18 |
| 2026-09-10 | $0.14 | $1,205,674,952 | 16 / 18 |
| 2026-09-11 | $0.14 | $1,205,674,952 | 16 / 18 |
| 2026-09-12 | $0.14 | $1,205,674,952 | 16 / 18 |
| 2026-09-13 | $0.14 | $1,205,674,952 | 16 / 18 |
| 2026-09-14 | $0.14 | $1,205,674,952 | 16 / 18 |
| 2026-09-15 | $0.14 | $1,205,674,952 | 16 / 18 |
| 2026-09-16 | $0.14 | $1,205,674,952 | 16 / 18 |
| 2026-09-17 | $0.14 | $1,205,674,952 | 16 / 18 |
| 2026-09-18 | $0.14 | $1,205,674,952 | 16 / 18 |
| 2026-09-19 | $0.14 | $1,205,674,952 | 16 / 18 |
| 2026-09-20 | $0.14 | $1,205,674,952 | 16 / 18 |
| 2026-09-21 | $0.14 | $1,205,674,952 | 16 / 18 |
| 2026-09-22 | $0.14 | $1,205,674,952 | 16 / 18 |
| 2026-09-23 | $0.14 | $1,205,674,952 | 16 / 18 |
| 2026-09-24 | $0.14 | $1,205,674,952 | 16 / 18 |
| 2026-09-25 | $0.14 | $1,205,444,517 | 16 / 18 |
| 2026-09-26 | $0.14 | $1,205,444,517 | 16 / 18 |
| 2026-09-27 | $0.14 | $1,205,444,517 | 16 / 18 |
| 2026-09-28 | $0.14 | $1,205,444,517 | 16 / 18 |
| 2026-09-29 | $0.14 | $1,205,444,517 | 16 / 18 |
| 2026-09-30 | $0.14 | $1,205,444,517 | 16 / 18 |
| 2026-10-01 | $0.14 | $1,205,170,604 | 16 / 18 |
| 2026-10-02 | $0.14 | $1,205,144,517 | 16 / 18 |
| 2026-10-03 | $0.14 | $1,205,144,517 | 16 / 18 |
| 2026-10-04 | $0.14 | $1,205,144,517 | 16 / 18 |
| 2026-10-05 | $0.14 | $1,205,144,517 | 16 / 18 |
| 2026-10-06 | $0.14 | $1,205,144,517 | 16 / 18 |
| 2026-10-07 | $0.14 | $1,205,144,517 | 16 / 18 |
| 2026-10-08 | $0.13 | $1,205,144,517 | 16 / 18 |
| 2026-10-09 | $0.13 | $1,205,144,517 | 17 / 18 |
| 2026-10-10 | $0.13 | $1,205,144,517 | 17 / 18 |
| 2026-10-11 | $0.13 | $1,205,144,517 | 17 / 18 |
| 2026-10-12 | $0.13 | $1,205,144,517 | 17 / 18 |
| 2026-10-13 | $0.13 | $1,205,144,517 | 17 / 18 |
| 2026-10-14 | $0.13 | $1,205,144,517 | 17 / 18 |
| 2026-10-15 | $0.13 | $1,205,137,270 | 17 / 18 |
| 2026-10-16 | $0.13 | $1,205,137,270 | 17 / 18 |
| 2026-10-17 | $0.13 | $1,205,137,270 | 17 / 18 |
| 2026-10-18 | $0.13 | $1,205,137,270 | 17 / 18 |
| 2026-10-19 | $0.13 | $1,205,137,270 | 17 / 18 |
| 2026-10-20 | $0.13 | $1,205,137,270 | 17 / 18 |
| 2026-10-21 | $0.13 | $1,205,137,270 | 17 / 18 |
| 2026-10-22 | $0.13 | $1,205,137,270 | 17 / 18 |
| 2026-10-23 | $0.13 | $1,205,137,270 | 17 / 18 |
| 2026-10-24 | $0.13 | $1,205,137,270 | 17 / 18 |
| 2026-10-25 | $0.13 | $1,205,137,270 | 17 / 18 |
| 2026-10-26 | $0.13 | $1,205,137,270 | 17 / 18 |
| 2026-10-27 | $0.13 | $1,205,137,270 | 17 / 18 |
| 2026-10-28 | $0.13 | $1,205,139,387 | 17 / 18 |
| 2026-10-29 | $0.13 | $1,205,139,387 | 17 / 18 |
| 2026-10-30 | $0.13 | $1,205,139,387 | 17 / 18 |
| 2026-10-31 | $0.13 | $1,205,139,387 | 17 / 18 |
| 2026-11-01 | $0.13 | $1,205,139,387 | 17 / 18 |
| 2026-11-02 | $0.13 | $1,205,139,387 | 17 / 18 |
| 2026-11-03 | $0.13 | $1,205,139,387 | 17 / 18 |
| 2026-11-04 | $0.13 | $1,205,139,387 | 17 / 18 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 13 Buy / Strong Buy · 12 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 0 recorded
0 raises · 2 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Nov 5, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.