Tandem Diabetes Care (TNDM)
NASDAQHealth CareMedical - DevicesSnapshot 2026-09-04
$19.90-2.59%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareMedical - DevicesSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · TNDM
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -61.4% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 11.7% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 73.1 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 87 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
TNDM — President transition
Dated 2026-05-15
Executive Vice President and Chief Commercial Officer — Mark Novara: Mr. Novara's employment was terminated without cause.
Why it matters: Negative cash flow may mean problems in operations. This can affect future growth.
Worry ifCash flow from operations reported negative in Q3.
Less concerning ifCash flow from operations reported positive in Q3.
Why it matters: Higher pump shipments would show strong demand and support revenue growth goals.
Supportive ifQ3 pump shipments reported above 35,000 units worldwide.
Worry ifPump shipments fall below 30,000 units worldwide.
Why it matters: Updates on this model will show how it affects sales and customer access.
Watch forGood feedback from customers or sales growth from the pay-as-you-go model.
Also watch forBad feedback from customers or a drop in sales from the pay-as-you-go model.
Why it matters: A drop in sector revenue growth could signal broader challenges. This affects Tandem's outlook.
Worry ifSector revenue growth falls below its median of 10%.
Less concerning ifSector revenue growth stays above its median of 10%.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$280 on $10,000 · ±2.8% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $592 loss on $10,000 · 5.9% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $5,464 loss on $10,000 · 54.6% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Improved cash flow shows the company is managing costs better. This supports growth plans.
Supportive ifCash flow from operations increases by 15% or more compared to last quarter.
Worry ifCash flow from operations decreases or stays flat compared to last quarter.
Why it matters: Growing revenue shows the company is expanding and innovating. This can bring in more investors.
Supportive ifQ2 revenue exceeds $247.2M, showing growth.
Worry ifQ2 revenue falls below $247.2M.
Why it matters: A higher gross margin shows better cost control and more profit.
Supportive ifGross margin reported above 58% in Q3.
Worry ifGross margin declines below 56%.
Why it matters: This model may affect revenue. Understanding its impact is key to future sales.
Watch forManagement says revenue will drop by $70M to $80M. This is because of the pay-as-you-go model.
Also watch forManagement says the pay-as-you-go model does not change revenue much.
Why it matters: Better operating income means the company is controlling costs well. This can help investors feel good.
Supportive ifQ2 operating income is less negative than -$17.4M.
Worry ifQ2 operating income worsens or stays more negative than -$17.4M.
Why it matters: Leadership changes can change the company's direction and how it carries out plans.
Watch forAppointment of a new executive with a strong track record in the industry.
Also watch forLook for more leaders leaving or issues in leadership positions.
Why it matters: A smaller net loss shows better financial health and efficiency.
Supportive ifNet loss narrows to below $15 million in Q3.
Worry ifNet loss exceeds $20 million in Q3.
Why it matters: FDA feedback on the Tandem Mobi may change launch dates and market plans.
Supportive ifFDA clears the Tandem Mobi for tubeless use.
Worry ifFDA asks for more data or delays the review.
Why it matters: Recent changes in leaders can change how a company performs. This matters to investors.
Worry ifNew leaders bring a clear strategy that helps the company perform better.
Less concerning ifThere is ongoing uncertainty. Changes in leadership may have negative effects.
Why it matters: Positive cash flow from operations shows financial strength. It helps support growth and is key for lasting success.
Supportive ifCash flow from operations remains positive in Q3.
Worry ifCash flow from operations turns negative in Q3.
Why it matters: Sales growth is key to Tandem's strategy. A slowdown may signal market issues.
Worry ifU.S. sales growth is reported below 5% year over year for Q3.
Less concerning ifU.S. sales growth exceeds 5% year over year for Q3.
Why it matters: This will show if Tandem can maintain its sales momentum amid challenges.
Worry ifQ2 2026 revenue growth is less than 5% compared to Q2 2025.
Less concerning ifQ2 2026 revenue growth is 5% or more compared to Q2 2025.
Why it matters: More people using the product means a successful change and more money coming in.
Supportive ifPay-as-you-go sales exceed 15% of U.S. sales in Q3.
Worry ifPay-as-you-go sales remain below 10% of U.S. sales.