Tandem Diabetes Care (TNDM)
NASDAQHealth CareMedical - DevicesSnapshot 2026-11-04
$17.99-5.56%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareMedical - DevicesSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · TNDM
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -53.9% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| 13.5% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 67.4 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 29 industry peers
TNDM — President transition
Dated 2026-05-15
Executive Vice President and Chief Commercial Officer — Mark Novara: Mr. Novara's employment was terminated without cause.
Why it matters: The pay-as-you-go model made up 10% of U.S. sales in Q2. More use could help growth, but the shift also cuts into 2026 sales.
Watch forPay-as-you-go sales rise above 10% of U.S. sales, with U.S. revenue at or above the guided pace.
Also watch forPay-as-you-go sales stay at or below 10%, or U.S. sales fall below the pace for the $730 million to $745 million range.
Why it matters: Q2 gross margin rose to 57%, while the company kept its full-year range. A lower Q3 result would weaken that progress.
Worry ifQ3 gross margin falls below 56%.
Less concerning ifQ3 gross margin is 56% or higher.
Why it matters: Tandem kept its 2026 sales range at $1.065 billion to $1.085 billion. Q3 results will show if sales are on pace.
Supportive ifQ3 sales are at least $260 million, keeping the company on pace for its 2026 sales range.
Worry ifQ3 sales are below $260 million, putting the 2026 sales range at risk.
Why it matters: The company filed for FDA clearance in Q2. Approval would let it offer the tubeless option in the U.S.
Supportive ifThe FDA clears Tandem Mobi for tubeless use.
Worry ifThe FDA rejects the filing or asks for more data, delaying clearance.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$223 on $10,000 · ±2.2% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $634 loss on $10,000 · 6.3% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $5,464 loss on $10,000 · 54.6% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Tandem reported a 3% adjusted EBITDA margin in Q2 and kept its full-year target. The next results will test that target.
Supportive ifFull-year adjusted EBITDA margin is at least 5%.
Worry ifFull-year adjusted EBITDA margin is below 5%, or the company cuts its 5% to 6% range.