Oncology Institute, Inc. (The) (TOI)
NASDAQHealth CareMedical - Care FacilitiesSnapshot 2026-09-04
$5.91-4.21%
Close 2026-08-31 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareMedical - Care FacilitiesSnapshot 2026-09-04
Intact: The reason to own it still holds.
TOI aims for $630M to $650M revenue in 2026. Free cash flow may turn positive, up to $5M. Profit margins are expected near 100%, showing strong cost control. The company improved cash flow from -$12.6M to -$2.2M recently.
TOI is still loss-making with fragile finances. Free cash flow remains negative. Revenue growth may slow or miss targets. Cybersecurity and litigation risks could hurt results.
The price is about 55% below our fair value near $13. Analysts expect 32% revenue growth, which is priced in. Our fair value is 61% above the Street median of $8.
Breaks if: adjusted EBITDA falls below $0 million in FY26
Breaks if: free cash flow remains below $0 million in FY26
Breaks if: revenue falls below $630 million in FY26
This is not a price target or investment advice.
A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.
This investment represents a turnaround opportunity in the healthcare sector. The current thesis state is intact, with management focused on driving revenue growth and achieving sustainable profitability.
The market appears to price in a low level of fragility due to weak execution quality, suggesting that expectations are somewhat conservative. Valuation is characterized as cheap compared to peers, but with a significant expectations gap.
Fundamentals are likely to show mixed results, as management is on track with revenue growth but faces challenges in expanding Medicare Advantage lives. Near-term risks are elevated, particularly given the company's smaller size and recent history of misses.
The thesis hinges on management's ability to maintain guidance and the overall health of the healthcare sector. Key factors include the performance of sector bellwethers and any potential cuts to guidance that could negatively impact sentiment.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Our read on the company is unchanged since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-09-04
Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
In the next 1 to 3 years, TOI's performance will depend on its execution and the broader market conditions in healthcare. Not investment advice.