Oncology Institute, Inc. (The) (TOI)
NASDAQHealth CareMedical - Care FacilitiesSnapshot 2026-09-04
$5.91-4.21%
Close 2026-08-31 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareMedical - Care FacilitiesSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · TOI
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -61.4% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 29.3% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 90.8 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 27 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
TOI — credit agreement
Dated 2026-08-21
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement On August 20, 2026, Starling Oncology Management, Limited Liability Company, a wholly owned subsidiary of Starling Oncology, Inc. (“SOM, LLC”), entered into a Credit Agreement (the “Revolving Loan Agreement”) among SOM, LLC, such other persons joined thereto as a borrower from time to time, and Gemino Healthcare Finance, LLC d/b/a SLR Healthcare ABL, as lender. The Revolving Loan Agreement provides access to a revolving line of credit facility in the…
Why it matters: Positive free cash flow is crucial for financial health and operational stability. It shows the company can manage its cash better.
Supportive ifFree cash flow reported at $0 or better for 2026.
Worry ifFree cash flow remains negative in 2026.
Why it matters: Strong revenue growth shows the company is doing well and meeting market needs.
Supportive ifQ3 revenue growth reported above 30% year over year.
Worry ifQ3 revenue growth reported below 20% year over year.
Why it matters: Positive Adjusted EBITDA shows the company can make money. This means it runs well.
Supportive ifQ3 Adjusted EBITDA was $1.5 million or more.
Worry ifQ3 Adjusted EBITDA was less than $500 thousand.
Why it matters: Meeting the revenue guidance shows the company is on track for growth. This is key for investor confidence.
Supportive ifQ2 revenue reported within the range of $630M to $650M.
Worry ifQ2 revenue falls below $630M.
Why it matters: The launch helps providers engage more and follow clinical pathways.
Supportive ifStarling Nexus provider portal is now live and working.
Worry ifLaunch of the Starling Nexus provider portal delayed beyond mid-August 2026.
Why it matters: Earnings results will show if TOI keeps growing its revenue. It will also show if it is getting closer to making a profit.
Watch forRevenue growth is over 41.2% compared to last year. This shows strong performance.
Also watch forRevenue growth falls below 20% year over year, suggesting a slowdown.
Why it matters: If revenue growth speeds up, it could help Oncology Institute do better.
Supportive ifSector revenue growth speeds up to 10% or more.
Worry ifSector revenue growth keeps slowing down below current levels.
Why it matters: Better cash flow shows the company is more efficient and financially healthy.
Supportive ifCash flow from operations shows a positive trend compared to previous quarters.
Worry ifCash flow from operations remains negative or worsens.
Why it matters: More Medicare Advantage lives mean more money. This shows the company's growth plan is working.
Supportive ifTotal Medicare Advantage lives were more than 200,000.
Worry ifTotal Medicare Advantage lives were less than 200,000.
Why it matters: Updates on the lawsuit could affect TOI's image and financial health.
Worry ifNo new bad news in the lawsuit about the cybersecurity issue.
Less concerning ifNew bad news or findings in the lawsuit about the cybersecurity issue.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$277 on $10,000 · ±2.8% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $698 loss on $10,000 · 7.0% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $4,979 loss on $10,000 · 49.8% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.