Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Toast Inc (TOST)
NYSEInformation TechnologySoftware - InfrastructureSnapshot 2026-11-04
$35.37+5.49%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NYSEInformation TechnologySoftware - InfrastructureSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
1.73 → 1.67 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 12 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 13 to 12; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for TOST yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Adjusted EBITDA reaches at least $790 million in fiscal 2026 | Toast grows adjusted EBITDA to about $800 million in 2026. | Intact | Adjusted EBITDA falls below $790 million in FY26 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
TOST is a growth business with recurring revenue and a path toward stronger profitability. Its multi-year view is intact: management is meeting stated priorities, though business and sector risks remain elevated.
The valuation evidence is mixed: TOST is described as cheap versus peers, while the peer comparison also shows a 0.61 premium. The expectations gap is negative, and the priced-in assessment is justified with low fragility, so the evidence does not point to unusually fragile expectations.
Near-term results have been strong, with recent earnings beats and continued growth in recurring revenue, customer locations, and subscription and financial technology gross profit. Management has raised its 2026 adjusted EBITDA guidance, but a guidance cut on the next call would be a meaningful risk; recent peer misses also warrant attention.
Over the next few quarters, the thesis hinges on management sustaining customer and recurring revenue growth while delivering on profitability priorities. A guidance cut would weaken the setup, while lower rates or steadier results from large technology companies could improve the sector backdrop.
For the 1- to 3-year view, TOST’s operating progress supports an intact long-term thesis, but elevated risk makes continued execution central. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| The company has a strong share buyback program adding $500 million. |
| Intact |
| No share repurchases or program reduced significantly in FY26 |
Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Gross profit from subscription services at least $565 million in Q2 2026 | Gross profit from subscription services rises to around $570 million. | Intact | Gross profit from subscription services falls below $565 million in Q2 2026 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$1.67 → $1.67 · observed estimates
$8.72B → $8.88B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $1.67 | $8,720,719,372 | 13 / 21 |
| 2026-07-25 | $1.69 | $8,720,366,810 | 16 / 28 |
| 2026-07-26 | $1.67 | $8,723,132,987 | 13 / 21 |
| 2026-07-27 | $1.67 | $8,723,132,987 | 13 / 21 |
| 2026-07-28 | $1.67 | $8,723,132,987 | 13 / 21 |
| 2026-07-29 | $1.69 | $8,720,331,090 | 16 / 28 |
| 2026-07-30 | $1.67 | $8,720,343,701 | 13 / 21 |
| 2026-07-31 | $1.67 | $8,720,343,701 | 13 / 21 |
| 2026-08-01 | $1.67 | $8,720,343,701 | 13 / 21 |
| 2026-08-02 | $1.69 | $8,720,331,090 | 16 / 28 |
| 2026-08-03 | $1.67 | $8,720,343,701 | 13 / 21 |
| 2026-08-04 | $1.67 | $8,720,629,415 | 13 / 21 |
| 2026-08-05 | $1.70 | $8,722,152,520 | 16 / 28 |
| 2026-08-06 | $1.69 | $8,720,616,810 | 16 / 28 |
| 2026-08-08 | $1.72 | $8,831,556,565 | 13 / 21 |
| 2026-08-09 | $1.74 | $8,831,550,430 | 16 / 28 |
| 2026-08-10 | $1.72 | $8,831,556,565 | 13 / 21 |
| 2026-08-12 | $1.74 | $8,838,327,540 | 17 / 28 |
| 2026-08-13 | $1.72 | $8,831,556,565 | 13 / 21 |
| 2026-08-14 | $1.72 | $8,831,556,565 | 13 / 21 |
| 2026-08-15 | $1.72 | $8,831,556,565 | 13 / 21 |
| 2026-08-16 | $1.72 | $8,831,556,565 | 14 / 21 |
| 2026-08-17 | $1.72 | $8,831,556,565 | 14 / 21 |
| 2026-08-18 | $1.72 | $8,831,556,565 | 14 / 21 |
| 2026-08-19 | $1.72 | $8,831,556,565 | 14 / 21 |
| 2026-08-20 | $1.72 | $8,839,154,630 | 14 / 21 |
| 2026-08-21 | $1.72 | $8,839,154,630 | 14 / 21 |
| 2026-08-22 | $1.72 | $8,839,154,630 | 14 / 21 |
| 2026-08-23 | $1.72 | $8,843,583,202 | 14 / 21 |
| 2026-08-24 | $1.72 | $8,843,583,202 | 14 / 21 |
| 2026-08-25 | $1.72 | $8,843,583,203 | 14 / 21 |
| 2026-08-26 | $1.72 | $8,844,154,631 | 14 / 21 |
| 2026-08-27 | $1.72 | $8,844,154,631 | 14 / 21 |
| 2026-08-28 | $1.72 | $8,844,154,631 | 14 / 21 |
| 2026-08-29 | $1.72 | $8,844,154,631 | 13 / 20 |
| 2026-08-30 | $1.72 | $8,844,154,631 | 13 / 20 |
| 2026-08-31 | $1.72 | $8,844,154,631 | 13 / 20 |
| 2026-09-01 | $1.72 | $8,844,154,631 | 13 / 20 |
| 2026-09-02 | $1.72 | $8,844,154,631 | 13 / 20 |
| 2026-09-03 | $1.72 | $8,846,368,917 | 13 / 20 |
| 2026-09-04 | $1.72 | $8,846,368,917 | 13 / 20 |
| 2026-09-05 | $1.72 | $8,846,368,917 | 13 / 20 |
| 2026-09-06 | $1.72 | $8,846,368,917 | 13 / 20 |
| 2026-09-07 | $1.72 | $8,846,368,917 | 13 / 20 |
| 2026-09-08 | $1.72 | $8,846,368,917 | 13 / 20 |
| 2026-09-09 | $1.72 | $8,846,368,917 | 13 / 20 |
| 2026-09-10 | $1.72 | $8,846,368,917 | 13 / 20 |
| 2026-09-11 | $1.72 | $8,846,368,917 | 13 / 20 |
| 2026-09-12 | $1.72 | $8,846,368,917 | 13 / 20 |
| 2026-09-13 | $1.72 | $8,846,368,917 | 13 / 20 |
| 2026-09-14 | $1.72 | $8,846,368,916 | 13 / 20 |
| 2026-09-15 | $1.72 | $8,846,368,916 | 13 / 20 |
| 2026-09-16 | $1.73 | $8,843,575,345 | 13 / 20 |
| 2026-09-17 | $1.73 | $8,843,575,345 | 13 / 20 |
| 2026-09-18 | $1.73 | $8,843,575,345 | 13 / 20 |
| 2026-09-19 | $1.73 | $8,843,575,345 | 13 / 20 |
| 2026-09-20 | $1.73 | $8,843,575,345 | 13 / 20 |
| 2026-09-21 | $1.73 | $8,843,575,345 | 13 / 20 |
| 2026-09-22 | $1.73 | $8,843,575,345 | 13 / 20 |
| 2026-09-23 | $1.73 | $8,843,575,345 | 13 / 20 |
| 2026-09-24 | $1.73 | $8,843,575,345 | 13 / 20 |
| 2026-09-25 | $1.73 | $8,844,639,716 | 13 / 20 |
| 2026-09-26 | $1.73 | $8,844,367,807 | 13 / 20 |
| 2026-09-27 | $1.73 | $8,844,367,807 | 13 / 20 |
| 2026-09-28 | $1.73 | $8,844,367,807 | 13 / 20 |
| 2026-09-29 | $1.73 | $8,844,367,807 | 13 / 20 |
| 2026-09-30 | $1.73 | $8,844,367,807 | 13 / 20 |
| 2026-10-01 | $1.73 | $8,844,367,807 | 13 / 20 |
| 2026-10-02 | $1.73 | $8,844,367,807 | 13 / 20 |
| 2026-10-03 | $1.73 | $8,844,367,807 | 13 / 20 |
| 2026-10-04 | $1.73 | $8,844,367,807 | 13 / 20 |
| 2026-10-05 | $1.73 | $8,844,296,378 | 13 / 20 |
| 2026-10-06 | $1.73 | $8,844,296,378 | 13 / 20 |
| 2026-10-07 | $1.73 | $8,844,296,378 | 13 / 20 |
| 2026-10-08 | $1.73 | $8,844,296,378 | 13 / 20 |
| 2026-10-09 | $1.73 | $8,844,296,378 | 13 / 20 |
| 2026-10-10 | $1.73 | $8,844,296,378 | 13 / 20 |
| 2026-10-11 | $1.73 | $8,844,296,378 | 13 / 20 |
| 2026-10-12 | $1.73 | $8,844,374,864 | 13 / 20 |
| 2026-10-13 | $1.73 | $8,843,160,578 | 12 / 20 |
| 2026-10-14 | $1.73 | $8,844,289,507 | 12 / 20 |
| 2026-10-15 | $1.73 | $8,844,289,507 | 12 / 20 |
| 2026-10-16 | $1.70 | $8,850,039,181 | 12 / 21 |
| 2026-10-17 | $1.70 | $8,850,039,181 | 12 / 21 |
| 2026-10-18 | $1.70 | $8,850,039,181 | 12 / 21 |
| 2026-10-19 | $1.70 | $8,850,039,181 | 13 / 21 |
| 2026-10-20 | $1.70 | $8,851,273,664 | 13 / 21 |
| 2026-10-21 | $1.70 | $8,851,273,664 | 13 / 21 |
| 2026-10-22 | $1.70 | $8,851,273,664 | 13 / 21 |
| 2026-10-23 | $1.70 | $8,850,521,940 | 13 / 21 |
| 2026-10-24 | $1.70 | $8,850,521,940 | 12 / 21 |
| 2026-10-25 | $1.70 | $8,850,521,940 | 12 / 21 |
| 2026-10-26 | $1.70 | $8,850,521,940 | 12 / 21 |
| 2026-10-27 | $1.70 | $8,850,521,940 | 12 / 21 |
| 2026-10-28 | $1.70 | $8,850,521,940 | 12 / 21 |
| 2026-10-29 | $1.70 | $8,847,246,077 | 12 / 21 |
| 2026-10-30 | $1.70 | $8,847,246,050 | 12 / 21 |
| 2026-10-31 | $1.70 | $8,847,246,050 | 12 / 21 |
| 2026-11-01 | $1.70 | $8,847,246,050 | 12 / 21 |
| 2026-11-02 | $1.70 | $8,847,246,050 | 12 / 21 |
| 2026-11-03 | $1.70 | $8,847,452,947 | 12 / 21 |
| 2026-11-04 | $1.67 | $8,884,005,465 | 12 / 20 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 21 Buy / Strong Buy · 10 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 2 recorded
1 raises · 2 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.