Toast Inc (TOST)
NYSEInformation TechnologySoftware - InfrastructureSnapshot 2026-09-04
$33.95+0.06%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEInformation TechnologySoftware - InfrastructureSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · TOST
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -15.0% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 21.9% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 36.9 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 68 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
TOST — director transition
Dated 2025-10-27
Director — Anutthara Ramamurthy Bharadwaj: Ms. Bharadwaj was appointed to the Board of Directors.
Why it matters: New partnerships can drive growth and validate Toast's market position.
Supportive ifLook for announcements of partnerships with big restaurant chains or hotel brands.
Worry ifNo new partnerships were announced. This may mean growth is slowing.
Why it matters: Slowing ARR growth could indicate challenges in customer acquisition or retention. It is a key metric for Toast's growth narrative.
Worry ifARR growth slows to below 20% year over year.
Less concerning ifARR growth remains above 20% year over year.
Why it matters: New locations show Toast is growing. This is important for long-term growth.
Supportive ifToast adds more than 9,500 net new locations in Q3.
Worry ifNet new locations added in Q3 is fewer than 9,500.
Why it matters: Higher gross profit shows better earnings in an important area. This can help growth.
Supportive ifGross profit from subscription services exceeds $575 million in 2026.
Worry ifGross profit from subscription services stays below $575 million in 2026.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$178 on $10,000 · ±1.8% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $481 loss on $10,000 · 4.8% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $4,617 loss on $10,000 · 46.2% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: An increase in Adjusted EBITDA guidance shows Toast wants to make more money. It shows they are running their business well.
Supportive ifGuidance for Adjusted EBITDA in 2026 is above $815 million.
Worry ifGuidance for Adjusted EBITDA in 2026 is below $815 million.
Why it matters: More share buybacks show management believes in the stock. It also shows a promise to give back to shareholders.
Supportive ifToast repurchases over $100 million in shares in Q3.
Worry ifToast repurchases less than $50 million in shares in Q3.
Why it matters: Growth in customer locations shows Toast's market expansion and customer demand. A slowdown could signal issues.
Supportive ifTotal customer locations increase by more than 5% from Q2 2026 to Q3 2026.
Worry ifTotal customer locations increase by less than 5% from Q2 2026 to Q3 2026.
Why it matters: The success of AI offerings like Toast IQ Grow could drive new customer acquisition and revenue growth.
Supportive ifNew customer locations increase by more than 10,000 in the next quarter.
Worry ifNew customer locations increase by less than 5,000 in the next quarter.
Why it matters: Meeting or exceeding the guidance shows Toast's ability to grow its core revenue streams. This is key for investor confidence.
Supportive ifIn Q3, non-GAAP subscription services gross profit is between $615 million and $625 million.
Worry ifQ3 subscription services gross profit falls below $615 million.
Why it matters: Strong EBITDA shows good cost management and efficiency. This can help build investor trust.
Supportive ifIn Q3, adjusted EBITDA is between $210 million and $220 million.
Worry ifQ3 Adjusted EBITDA is less than $210 million.
Why it matters: News on share buybacks can show management's confidence in the company's value and health.
Watch forToast announces an increase in the share repurchase program beyond the current $500 million.
Also watch forNo updates or a decrease in the share repurchase program.