Toast Inc (TOST)
NYSEInformation TechnologySoftware - InfrastructureSnapshot 2026-11-05
$35.16-0.59%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEInformation TechnologySoftware - InfrastructureSnapshot 2026-11-05
QuarterlyIQ Insights · TOST
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -9.8% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 20.7% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-05.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 30.4 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-05 · Compared with 23 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
TOST — CFO transition
Dated 2026-11-03
CFO — Elena Gomez: The CFO is stepping down with a named internal successor (SVP of Finance) and a transition period, indicating an orderly succession rather than a sudden loss of leadership.
Why it matters: Toast's CRO is moving to a non-executive role. A named successor and steady growth would support an orderly handoff.
Watch forToast names a CRO successor, and later reports ARR growth of at least 25% year over year.
Also watch forToast reports no CRO successor and ARR growth below 25% year over year.
Why it matters: Toast added a record 9,500 net locations in Q2. Further growth would support its focus on adding customers and growing ARR.
Supportive ifQ3 total locations grow at least 22% year over year, matching Q2's reported rate.
Worry ifQ3 total location growth falls below 22% year over year.
Why it matters: Toast raised its full-year recurring gross profit growth outlook in Q2. Another raise would point to stronger results than its prior plan.
Supportive ifAt the Nov. 3 earnings update, Toast raises its 2026 recurring gross profit range above $2.325 billion to $2.355 billion.
Worry ifToast cuts its 2026 range below $2.325 billion, the low end of its Q2 range.
Why it matters: BWH made Toast available to thousands of properties in the U.S. and Canada. Named properties using Toast would show the deal is moving into use.
Supportive ifBWH or Toast names BWH properties that have begun using Toast's platform.
Worry ifToast or BWH reports that the partnership is delayed, ended, or has no property launches.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$148 on $10,000 · ±1.5% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $452 loss on $10,000 · 4.5% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $4,277 loss on $10,000 · 42.8% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Toast raised its 2026 adjusted EBITDA range in Q2. Meeting the new range would show that profit gains held after that raise.
Supportive ifToast reports 2026 adjusted EBITDA of at least $805 million, the low end of its Q2 range.
Worry ifToast cuts its 2026 adjusted EBITDA range below $805 million, or reports less than $805 million for 2026.