Turning Point Brands, Inc. (TPB)
NYSEConsumer StaplesTobaccoSnapshot 2026-09-04
$75.22-2.24%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer StaplesTobaccoSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · TPB
Price, fair value, and the multiples that frame it on the same time axis. Scroll over the price chart to zoom.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots inline.
A consensus fair price across 9 valuation methods, at three horizons. As of 2026-09-04. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $75 the market pays 25× p/e — above the 17× p/e peer median but in line with its own 22× history. That premium reflects a durable franchise our peer-anchored $56 fair value understates; treat the 'expensive vs peers' read with low confidence. Analysts target $103–$125. Note: our $56 fair value sits below the entire analyst range ($103–$125). Even valued only for durable growth at sustainable margins, it's worth about $114 — above today's price, so the premium reflects that growth case, not pure multiple expansion. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Score 100 = cheapest in the cohort, 0 = richest. Bars are filled left-to-right based on the peer-relative score (or PEG/self-history where shown).
Each method's implied share price per horizon. Provisional rows use a projected (historical-CAGR) growth input rather than analyst or management guidance.
| Method | Horizon | Est. price | Multiple | Per-share input | EPS source | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| analyst target | 12M | $115.50 | — | — | Analyst | high |
| graham number | 12M | $39.12 | — | — | TTM | high |
| Peer EV/EBITDA | 12M | $50.09 | 11.7 | 4.42 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/FCF | 12M | $15.49 | 15.9 | 0.97 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/E |
A “consensus-then vs. actual-now” overlay is on the way — what our valuation estimate said on a past date versus where the price actually landed.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
Around the middle on quality vs scored peers
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
$103.00 – $125.00 (median $115.50) · 4 analysts · as of 2026-08-10
Only weak execution quality — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack. Regime (Mania) does not concentrate fragility.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
At today's price you pay about 85% over what the business is worth with no growth; closing that gap needs roughly 4.7 years of the forecast growth to come through. These describe the expectations embedded in the price, not a forecast of the move. Reverse-DCF base: $2.45/sh owner earnings.
Looks more expensive than peers.
Richer than its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2024-Q4, 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
| 12M |
| $27.25 |
| 15.8 |
| 1.72 |
| ntm analyst |
| high |
| Peer P/S | 12M | $21.47 | 0.9 | 25.16 | TTM | high |
| residual income | 12M | $25.83 | — | — | TTM | high |
| Own P/E history | 12M | $67.62 | 22.4 | 3.02 | TTM | high |
| triangulated | 12M | $53.94 | 16.8 | 3.21 | Triangulated | high |
| Peer P/E | 3Y | $9.13 | 15.8 | 0.58 | Analyst | medium |
| Own P/E history | 3Y | $24.72 | 22.4 | 1.10 | Analyst | medium |
| Own P/E history | 5Y | $12.64 | 22.4 | 0.56 | Analyst | medium |